Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

Wagner has been turfed out of Syria by the Russian and Syrian militaries and lost a "logistics hub to transit Wagner fighters on to Libya and elswhere in Africa".  Syrian intelligence cutoff Wagner communications and its leaders were summoned by the Russian military "in the early hours of the mutiny"

By June 24, Wagner fighters in Syria were asked to sign new contracts by which they report directly to Russia's defence ministry, a source with knowledge of Wagner's deployments and two other sources with knowledge of the events said.

Their pay was also cut, those three sources said.

Those who refused the terms were flown out on Russian Ilyushin planes in the following days, two of those sources said. One said they numbered "in the dozens," surprising Syrian officials who expected more would refuse and head into exile.

Wagner troops are also leaving the Central African Republichttps://ca.news.yahoo.com/wagner-troops-leave-central-african-142000165.html

Senior sources from CAR's ministry of defence and an official from the Russian embassy have revealed around 400 Wagner employees left the capital on two planes on Wednesday, confirming local reports of Wagner disengagement.

One ministry of defence official said the Wagner Group personnel who left refused to sign new contracts with Russia's ministry of defence.

He revealed between 1,300 and 1,400 Wagner employees still remained in the country but that around a hundred were packing up to leave Bouar, a key base on the trading route with Cameroon.

From https://mwi.westpoint.edu/prigozhins-gambit-how-disastrous-could-wagners-aborted-coup-be-for-putin-and-his-war-in-ukraine/  an instructor at West Point posits that the future for Wagner is poor.

The implications of Wagner's actions inside Russia will reverberate well beyond its borders, as well. While Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims that Wagner operations will continue in Mali and the Central African Republic as before, it is impossible that this failed rebellion will not change the dynamics between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense, on which it relies for logistical and transportation support for its operations in these countries. Wagner is no longer seen as a reliable arm of Russian policy. African governments may also change their minds about Russian involvement going forward. Additionally, the eight thousand Wagner troops moving into camps in southern Belarus can be hardly a reassuring sight for Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko and his beleaguered post-Soviet army. Lukashenko will have to rely upon Prigozhin's fear of Putin and gratitude for Lukashenko brokering his exile deal to keep the former caterer from turning his march of justice upon Minsk and enforcing a Wagner-led regime change.

Without heavy weapons Wagner wouldn't be as great a threat to Minsk as it was to Moscow, but the move to Belarus has not been made and Prigozhin is in Russia according to Lukashenko.  Presumably to convince others of his indispensability if not his irreplaceability. 

There has not been word of Wagner being forced to leave Libya or Maii.  Clearly if the Russian military convinces these countries that Wagner is no longer viable, Prigozhin's indespensability will have ended. 

[GDS_Starfury]

Will the introduction of these make a difference versus the similar shells they were getting from their own inventories and from Turkey previously?

just that theyll be able to use them more liberally instead of hording them for specific targets.

[GDS_Starfury]

for russia the real dildo of consequence has arrived!   

https://twitter.com/i/status/1677420778357243905

[GDS_Starfury]

this M1 article from tass is a fucking riot!

https://tass.com/defense/1567245

[GDS_Starfury]

another nice thing about the arty cluster rounds and that we have sooooooooo many to give.
these numbers are huge.

https://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/arms/cluster0705/2.htm

[W8taminute]

I'm surprised the UN isn't saying anything about the cluster munitions.  I thought these were banned by the international community?

On another note, has there been any effort, either in the UN or Nato, to begin dialogues for peace negotiations?  Isn't the UN's job to mediate peace between warring parties?  As sad as this may sound, I can understand the UN not paying much attention to the tragedies occurring in Africa, but in Europe why is no one trying to initiate peace talks other than China (which recently proposed a peace deal)?

[SirAndrewD]

On another note, has there been any effort, either in the UN or Nato, to begin dialogues for peace negotiations?  Isn't the UN's job to mediate peace between warring parties? 

Neither side is willing to engage in dialouge. 

Russia's hard line to begin negotiations is Ukraine's army to stand down and surrender its equipment, agree in principal to cede all annexed territory, sign a treaty forever promising to not join NATO, and accept Russian led "de-Nazification" of the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine's hard line is that all Russian military forces withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Donbas and Crimea. 

Neither side will, nor could they really ever agree to the other's demands without a decisive battlefield decision so what is the UN to do?  Peace feelers were sent and the Ukrainian government tried to negotiate last year.  The Russian line has not only not changed, but their demands have increased as time has gone on.

[Sir Slash]

That is their Public positions, much the same way Israel and her Arab enemies always denied accepting anything but total victory. But behind the scenes deals were made after offers and counter offers went back and forth. Eventually both sides felt a good enough deal could be made to go for a Cease Fire, then something more permanent. Same thing could happen here if someone would try. And some have. But trying and failing is still trying at least.

The UN will oppose Cluster Munitions in use by either side but as I understand it, both sides have already used this type weapon before, especially the Orcs, so it's probably too late to put that ketchup back in the bottle. I saw the other day a Russian soldier claim the Ukrainians had used Chemical Weapons against them. Probably a total BS claim but if either side began use of them, that would be a massive escalation in this war.   

[SirAndrewD]

That is their Public positions, much the same way Israel and her Arab enemies always denied accepting anything but total victory. But behind the scenes deals were made after offers and counter offers went back and forth. Eventually both sides felt a good enough deal could be made to go for a Cease Fire, then something more permanent. Same thing could happen here if someone would try. And some have. But trying and failing is still trying at least.

And there have been attempts.  A lot of attempts that aren't even made public.  Russia does not feel they CAN compromise because they took steps too far like annexing territory that in some cases they now don't even control. 

I know for a fact that Ukraine's far more willing to talk than they seem, not going to go into that but a long way back in this thread I talked about a potential peace deal that could be workable.  I didn't just invent that off the top of my head.  The issue there is that as reasonable as it was, Russia turned it down. 

The problem comes that in Moscow, Shoigu and Patrushev continue to whisper victory in Putin's ear and that is one of the reasons he decided to "Burn the ships" as it were by pushing the annexation order. 

It's going to take something impossibly bad to hide for the Russians on the battlefield to force them off their minimum negotiations.  They have to have no choice. 

This is because we're not talking about Russia making a peace decision in its best interests.  We're talking about a REGIME making the decision in its interests.  Russia's interests are not even remotely in the minds of the men actually making the decisions in power. 

That's a hard position to negotiate with.  They must have an exit strategy that makes them able to sell a victory to their people, even in defeat.  That's almost impossible given the current situation, especially post annexation. 

There may not even be a chance to force the regime to negotiate.  It may need to be forced to collapse. 

This is not the realm of the reasonable or sane. 

[Crossroads]

Russia is not a party to CCM (Convention on Cluster Munitions), nor is Ukraine, nor is any of Russia's neighbouring countries, including Finland. US is not part of CCM.

I find it not a little offensive Human Rights Watch, among other "Peace" organisations, makes a statement to not allow Ukraine to use them on their own soil.

Contrary to popular belief, HRW had actually condemned Russia, too. Based on a tweet from some net detective, they had done that on April 2022. Once. Instead of reiterating their stance on cluster munitions by retweeting their view each and every day Russia violates international law, among many other things by continuosly using cluster munitions indiscriminately (discriminately?) on civil targets, they are quiet. Russian cluster munitions have a fail rate of 30-40%, by the way, according to this Guardian article.

This is not a she said - he said. Hopefully Ukraine gets a ton of all types of arms they need to defend their country against a brutal aggressor, as Charter of United Nations allows them.

On this 500th day of unprovoked Russian aggression, Switzerland, playing "neutral" and thus continuing not sending arms to Ukraine, nor allow any system to be exported that has Swiss components, here's to you as well 

[Tripoli]

That is their Public positions, much the same way Israel and her Arab enemies always denied accepting anything but total victory. But behind the scenes deals were made after offers and counter offers went back and forth. Eventually both sides felt a good enough deal could be made to go for a Cease Fire, then something more permanent. Same thing could happen here if someone would try. And some have. But trying and failing is still trying at least.

And there have been attempts.  A lot of attempts that aren't even made public.  Russia does not feel they CAN compromise because they took steps too far like annexing territory that in some cases they now don't even control. 

I know for a fact that Ukraine's far more willing to talk than they seem, not going to go into that but a long way back in this thread I talked about a potential peace deal that could be workable.  I didn't just invent that off the top of my head.  The issue there is that as reasonable as it was, Russia turned it down. 

The problem comes that in Moscow, Shoigu and Patrushev continue to whisper victory in Putin's ear and that is one of the reasons he decided to "Burn the ships" as it were by pushing the annexation order. 

It's going to take something impossibly bad to hide for the Russians on the battlefield to force them off their minimum negotiations.  They have to have no choice. 

This is because we're not talking about Russia making a peace decision in its best interests.  We're talking about a REGIME making the decision in its interests.  Russia's interests are not even remotely in the minds of the men actually making the decisions in power. 

That's a hard position to negotiate with.  They must have an exit strategy that makes them able to sell a victory to their people, even in defeat.  That's almost impossible given the current situation, especially post annexation. 

There may not even be a chance to force the regime to negotiate.  It may need to be forced to collapse. 

This is not the realm of the reasonable or sane. 

Unfortunately, I believe your analysis is correct )-:  There will need to be a collapse of the Russian government before Ukraine and Russia can negotiate an end to the war. 

[Sir Slash]

What's scary to me is the Russian leadership seems to be a bag of cats right now. I don't think anybody knows who's on who's side and who is in charge of what. Desperate people will do desperate things to stay in power and pull the rug out from under rivals. A new Russian Civil War maybe closer than ever.

[W8taminute]

Even so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 

[bobarossa]

Even so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 

Just wanted to point out that during WW2, the Allies were set on Unconditional Surrender.  I think (without facts to back it up) that this was due to the survival of the Axis regimes being insufferable for the world.

[SirAndrewD]

Even so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 

Talks are being held, just quietly and not with Putin. 

One of those things I'm not going to say much more about because I got it from someone who shouldn't have told me.