Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Tripoli]

Just to be clear, the impacts from detonating one isolated warhead would have horrific human costs, but the fatality rate outside a couple mile radius would be modest.  Cancer rates would soar for the next 30 years, but most of the nuclear destruction we learned about 40 or 50 years ago was based on MIRV warheads sprinkling nuclear fireballs in a broad radius around a central target.

I think the Eastern European scenario is more likely.  Last I heard, if somebody decides to detonate a nuke in New York City, it'll likely be done via a container ship pulling into port.  I'm sure that container security has improved in the last 20 years, but I'm sure it's not yet perfect.

If people on the board are interested, I can run a couple of simulations in Matrix Games' "Nuclear War Simulator" and post the results here.  Let me know what scenarios you are interested in.  I think probably the worst case would be a 1 kT W54 at 40' in the air, but I'm willing to run others.

[Gusington]

^Would that include non-state actors like lunatics and nutjobs and Chechens?

[JasonPratt]

Sure, he's thinking a backpack weapon, where someone managed to get a few floors up and jumped off a roof or whatever.

[Tripoli]

^Would that include non-state actors like lunatics and nutjobs and Chechens?

The 1 kT W54 is the largest of the backpack nuclear weapons (as far as I know), and the 40' height is based on what an airburst using the weapon on a Davy Crockett missile, so I assume that is the optimal airburst height, although it would be easy enough to change the height.   Let me know if you want me to run the simulation(s) and what warhead/height/location you want them run at. 

[Gusington]

I do, and I don't 

[SirAndrewD]

takes a licking....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1679844430939930626

Wait, I saw a movie on HBO once that said the Bradley sucks.

[Tripoli]

I do, and I don't 

The "Nuclear War Simulator" is a very sobering program.  It isn't particularly fun to use, but it gives data that is important to think about. I'll do a run using the numbers I suggested, but use a town no one has ever heard of: Waldo, Florida.  That might make it a little less personal.

[Gusington]

^Right next door to Star. Potentially.

[Tripoli]

^Right next door to Star. Potentially.

Nah, it's between Gainesville and Orange Park.  A million miles from Star   

[Gusington]

I was kidding.

[SirAndrewD]

I was kidding.

When?

[JasonPratt]

Did someone ask about an explosion at a Russian-controlled nuclear power plant?

How about one in the Urals?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/novouralsk-nuclear-plant-blast-what-we-know-as-russians-rushed-to-hospital/ar-AA1dRZBa?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=3f7bd0891d5649d09bb77c2271615da6&ei=39

Don't worry, this is only Russian competence, nothing to do with the war. Probably.

.......I'll be posting a new video to the feel good thread momentarily, just in case.

[Gusington]

About the close to Star thang.

[SirAndrewD]

About the close to Star thang.

Which star are you close to? 

[Gusington]

None unfortunately :/