Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Con]

Getting "Wacht am Rhein" vibes here

[SirAndrewD]

Were the failures in Kharkiv (if you can call them that?) due to lack of adequate supplies beforehand, or simply advancing so far ahead of their logistics that they lost momentum after the hard work of a breakout.

Yeah, I wouldn't call them failures. 

They were short on supply to begin with, and lacked mobile reserves of exactly the kind they begged the west to help them build in months afterwards. 

When they achieved the breakout, the Russians general withdrawal from all of Kharkiv left large swaths of territory the UAF needed to secure, which slowed them down and made them divert resources from the breakthrough. 

They were also tied up securing large numbers of prisoners and abandoned equipment.  It was a classic case of the enemy retreating faster than the attacker was able to sustainably advance. 

Had they had a well supplied mobile reserve similar to the one they've been largely holding back now, they would've been employed after the breakout at Lyman and likely could've flanked the heights at Svatove, leaving the Russian position in the far north totally untenable. 

As it was by the time they reached those natural obstacles last year, they were strung out, exhausted, undersupplied and frankly flush with victory and ready for a rest.

[GDS_Starfury]

[GDS_Starfury]

they're here

https://twitter.com/i/status/1681427379678478337

[JasonPratt]

Re the Crimean tourist season: that might not be only propaganda. The Russians could also be hoping the tourists will volunteer to be indirect human shields.

If the Ukrainians refuse to kill tourists, that slows down their advance at least.

If the Ukrainians accidentally kill tourists, propaganda coup.

If the Ukrainians intentionally kill tourists, HUGE propaganda and probably diplomatic coup.


....as usual, it's a good thing I'm not a supervillain.

[FarAway Sooner]

Maybe.  For every tourist killed as a meat shield, my bet is that 10 or 20 or 50 escape and return to the rodina to talk about how their army got its butt kicked and they had to flee for their life.

Of course, propaganda isn't just designed to fool people.  It's also designed to fill an info vacuum, so that anybody who starts disputing the propaganda can be identified and suppressed/arrested before they get too vocal or start drawing like-minded folks to their side.

[SirAndrewD]

The Ukrainian government made an announcement that tourists were unsafe in the war zone and they were traveling on roadways that are military targets.   They advised all Russian civilians not to go into a war zone to reach a vacation spot. 

Humorously, the Russian media responded by suggesting tourists travel not only by Kerch, but by the heavily shelled and attacked Mariupol to Melitopol road.  They reiterated the area was safe, secure and that the newly annexed territories were open for business. 

Very surreal.  The UAF has shown they have no compunction about attacking those arteries even with civilian traffic.  They issued a fair warning.

[nelmsm]

The Ukrainian government made an announcement that tourists were unsafe in the war zone and they were traveling on roadways that are military targets.   They advised all Russian civilians not to go into a war zone to reach a vacation spot. 

Humorously, the Russian media responded by suggesting tourists travel not only by Kerch, but by the heavily shelled and attacked Mariupol to Melitopol road.  They reiterated the area was safe, secure and that the newly annexed territories were open for business. 

Very surreal.  The UAF has shown they have no compunction about attacking those arteries even with civilian traffic.  They issued a fair warning.

Especially since the Russians don't hesitate to strike Ukranian civilians.

[FarAway Sooner]

Watching the Russian government these days is watching Keystone Kops armed with nukes.

[JasonPratt]

With randomly mal/dis-functioning nukes.

[SirAndrewD]

Well, after pulling out of the grain deal a couple of days ago, the Russians doubled down an hour ago and declared a full military blockade of Ukraine. 

The Russian MOD now says any ships going to Ukraine are considered to be carrying military cargo and are combatants regardless of flag. 

They have also declared the entire "northern" Black Sea unsafe for any non Russian shipping at all without specifying what that exactly means.

Going to be interesting to see how this move plays out.  I doubt this is going over very well in Ankara even with them pulling out of the protection deal.

[FarAway Sooner]

I wonder if this is an area where NATO (or some subset of NATO countries) might up the ante by providing military escorts for those ships? 

I can't imagine any country (e.g., Poland) committing its aircraft to escorting Ukrainian grain ships across the Black Sea unilaterally.  And--whether it's a good idea or a horrible idea--I can't imagine any multilateral arrangement happening without US support.

The US has consistently been very risk-averse in these areas (when we show up, it's a day late and a dollar short), for fear of provoking the Nuclear Cocaine Bear. 

I'd be surprised if much substantive comes of this, aside from increasing global famine and perhaps an easing of Russian tolerance on the part of those countries (mostly African, I think) who will be most directly impacted by the rising cost of grain. 

[SirAndrewD]

I wonder if this is an area where NATO (or some subset of NATO countries) might up the ante by providing military escorts for those ships? 

I can't imagine any country (e.g., Poland) committing its aircraft to escorting Ukrainian grain ships across the Black Sea unilaterally.  And--whether it's a good idea or a horrible idea--I can't imagine any multilateral arrangement happening without US support.

The US has consistently been very risk-averse in these areas (when we show up, it's a day late and a dollar short), for fear of provoking the Nuclear Cocaine Bear. 

I'd be surprised if much substantive comes of this, aside from increasing global famine and perhaps an easing of Russian tolerance on the part of those countries (mostly African, I think) who will be most directly impacted by the rising cost of grain. 

Well, Turkey had just backed off the concept of naval escort, which seems to have given Russia the push it needed to feel it could pull off a full blockade. 

This may change their minds, but too fresh to tell. 

This will be a gigantic impact on African and Middle Eastern food supplies, so there's going to be enormous pressure to have this reversed one way or the other. 

The US may have to take up some of the slack as a major overproducer. 

[GDS_Starfury]

I thought that most grain was now shipped out of region buy truck and rail due to this very risk.

[SirAndrewD]

I thought that most grain was now shipped out of region buy truck and rail due to this very risk.

It has been.  But that's been the problem, truck and rail transport can't meet the export capacity that's needed to meet demand. 

Ukraine had a roughly 50 million ton backlog of grain shipments sitting spoiling in need of sea transport. 

The Black Sea grain deal was supposed to insure those lines were safely open, but that's at an end now.