Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

I seem to recall that, too!

In an unrelated article...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-helicopter-crew-say-women-flash-them-as-they-fly-overhead-boosting-their-morale-as-they-fight-russia/ar-AA1dYfUD?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=a4d6ff605b8d4fbaa463008bdb11e629&ei=40

...Business Insider provides some snippets from a far more extensive Sunday Times interview article, which is behind a paywall (though a cheap one).

I feel like DCS may be missing some functionality.

[JasonPratt]

An Associated Press analyzing political and other fallout from Russia withdrawing from the Ukrainian grain deal:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/by-pulling-out-of-the-ukrainian-grain-deal-russia-risks-alienating-its-few-remaining-partners/ar-AA1e9hZF?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=27af6700a8974c1d889dd24582eb6fd1&ei=38

Unsurprisingly, Zeihan had something to say about that, too, recently, though I don't have the video handy atm.

[GDS_Starfury]

Isn't Witch the lawyer who came up with the scheme of using unobserved indirect fire with a truck mounted Mk-19 last year?

no idea but I'll go with sure, why not.

[GDS_Starfury]

every. fucking. treeline.

link works

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682360213582630918

[JasonPratt]

"Hmm...this page doesn't exist. Try searching for something else." 

[GDS_Starfury]

works for me as a raw link

[JasonPratt]

Goes to the page missing page when I click it; and when I copy-paste it to my address bar.

[GDS_Starfury]

iykyk

[SirAndrewD]

Wow.  The Russians arrested Girkin.  That's weird, he was the deep pro-Putin, Pro-War, pro-FSB ultra right winger.

[Skoop]

Yeah but he was also very critical of the kremlin mishandling.  A thorn in their side, and they wanted to nip it in the bud before another wagner style rebellion happened.

[Crossroads]

Wow.  The Russians arrested Girkin.  That's weird, he was the deep pro-Putin, Pro-War, pro-FSB ultra right winger.

Seems the patriotic pro-war movement's stepped a tad to step forward for the comfort of Putin. No opposition allowed anymore, not even war opposition (as in for even more aggressive war).

[Crossroads]

Thought to look if anything new by Lawrence Freedman lately. From fortnight ago: Attrition before breakthrough.

Seems he's from the same page with "Arty Green" I posted earlier today:

Starve, Stretch, and Strike

The UK's Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radikin, describes Ukraine's approach as 'starve, stretch and strike.' Starve refers to the regular attacks on Russian logistics and command structures, and stretch to the 'multiple axes being probed and feints by Ukraine.' Their aim is to take advantage of the length of the front line, over a thousand kilometres. As each attack requires a response, this can lead to the progressive commitment of Russian reserves. Strike is what we are still waiting for. That will be when the bulk of the twelve fresh and modernised brigades, two thirds of which are still being held back, can be pushed forward. That is why Radikin and others say that the full counteroffensive has yet to start.

This is therefore a staged approach. As the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) put it, the priority is 'to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanized manoeuvres to regain large swathes of territory rapidly.'

The success of Ukraine's strategy depends on Russia's strategy. Russian commanders have opted against a passive defence, waiting for the Ukrainians to find a way through the minefields and then overcoming their extensive fortifications. Instead they have sought to deny Ukrainian forces any gains at all. So when, for example, Ukraine liberates a village, a Russian counter-attack is soon mounted. Even though most of these counter-attacks are not successful, the Russian objective may simply be keep up pressure on Ukraine so that they cannot consolidate any gains and must prepare their own defences.

This makes for some fierce clashes, but it also probably suits Ukraine because it means that Russian forces become more vulnerable as they move out from their concealed and protected positions. 

[GDS_Starfury]

No opposition allowed anymore, not even war opposition (as in for even more aggressive war).

they can't fight or afford a more aggresive war. 

[Windigo]

Thought to look if anything new by Lawrence Freedman lately. From fortnight ago: Attrition before breakthrough.

Seems he's from the same page with "Arty Green" I posted earlier today:

Starve, Stretch, and Strike

The UK's Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radikin, describes Ukraine's approach as 'starve, stretch and strike.' Starve refers to the regular attacks on Russian logistics and command structures, and stretch to the 'multiple axes being probed and feints by Ukraine.' Their aim is to take advantage of the length of the front line, over a thousand kilometres. As each attack requires a response, this can lead to the progressive commitment of Russian reserves. Strike is what we are still waiting for. That will be when the bulk of the twelve fresh and modernised brigades, two thirds of which are still being held back, can be pushed forward. That is why Radikin and others say that the full counteroffensive has yet to start.

This is therefore a staged approach. As the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) put it, the priority is 'to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanized manoeuvres to regain large swathes of territory rapidly.'

The success of Ukraine's strategy depends on Russia's strategy. Russian commanders have opted against a passive defence, waiting for the Ukrainians to find a way through the minefields and then overcoming their extensive fortifications. Instead they have sought to deny Ukrainian forces any gains at all. So when, for example, Ukraine liberates a village, a Russian counter-attack is soon mounted. Even though most of these counter-attacks are not successful, the Russian objective may simply be keep up pressure on Ukraine so that they cannot consolidate any gains and must prepare their own defences.

This makes for some fierce clashes, but it also probably suits Ukraine because it means that Russian forces become more vulnerable as they move out from their concealed and protected positions. 

Seems a lot of wars go this way; attrition and logistics.

[SirAndrewD]

Yeah, Girkin had pushed too hard recently against the regime even as a pro-war guy.  He was regularly criticizing Putin for not going far enough.  That level of dissent is no longer being tolerated at all.

The other interesting thing today, Erdogan is now starting to reverse on the initial refusal to have the Turkish navy escort civilian shipping to and from Ukraine.  The Russians warned him that if the Turks escorted civilian ships that it would be "unwise" which has provoked the Turks even further.

I am not surprised.  The Russians trying to close even part of the Black Sea to commerce is majorly pissing in Turkey's cornflakes.