Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

lets GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1683095023594745858

[Gusington]

^That is extremely satisfying.

[Gusington]

The current bombardment of Odes(s)a is another sad event in a series of sad events in this war.

I wonder if Russia will produce some excuse at a future point down the road to do the same to Lviv and drive Poland nuts even more?

[JasonPratt]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682552301003632642

I heard that in the lyrics of a parody video from 11 years ago:

"Inter-esting; your whole team is resting? Protesting, that I'm giving a molesting!"

(Don't know what happened to Scream Team, their last video seems to be 4 years ago.)

[Uberhaus]

The current bombardment of Odes(s)a is another sad event in a series of sad events in this war.

I wonder if Russia will produce some excuse at a future point down the road to do the same to Lviv and drive Poland nuts even more?

Apparently, that is Lukashenko's job.  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/23/wagner-group-fighters-want-attack-poland-lukashenko-belarus/
Complete vranyo, even stupider than Putin saying Poland wants its Ukrainian territory back and will occupy it. 
It has been 103 years since the Soviet attack on Poland, so perhaps they don't remember what happened.  The Poles are just as motivated; their training was good then, it's even better now.  Let's not even mention NATO membership and equipment.

[FarAway Sooner]

To the extent that they even know what they're doing, the Russians are, I think, trying to provoke an offensive by Poland into Belarus.  Russia can then respond, saying "They're coming to the defense of a treaty-bound ally" or somesuch, while the rest of NATO gets to sit out because Poland putatively initiated the hostilities.

I'm not saying that's the likely outcome.  That's just the outcome that I suspect the Russian hardliners are hoping for.

[SirAndrewD]

Yeah, Lukashenko I'm sure is doing his "best" to control Wagner. 

I mean, it'd be a terrible shame if they attacked the Poles as rouges totally not supported by either Russia and Belarus.

Just like how the "Little Green Men" invaded the Donbas and Crimea with Russia having absolutely nothing to do with it at all. 

[Gusington]

^Good posts. All of which makes me think that the 'coup' last month was orchestrated and premeditated to get 25k Wagner troops into Belarus, positioned to really stick it to Poland, and maybe even act.

[Skoop]

20k wagners wouldn't do shit in Poland.  Not happy to see the war expand, but if you've seen how motivated and aggressive the poles are, I'm positive the poles are saying bring it bitches to the Russians.

[SirAndrewD]

From the Russian perspective if they're dead set on eventually expanding the war to Poland and somehow getting around Article 5, the time is now.

The Pole's military expansion and modernization program is only three years old and they only now have accepted the first ten of the 1000 K2 Black Panthers they have on order from Hyundai.  Their first F-35's aren't far off either. 

I'd argue that considering they're stuck in a quagmire in Ukraine that is chewing Russia's resources up would put them in no shape to fight an even unsupported Poland today, but they certainly will be in no shape to take them a five years down the road even if they win in Ukraine tomorrow.

Expansion of the conflict to Poland, even without NATO, would give Putin an excuse to really ramp up the 2nd Great Patriotic War rhetoric and finally give him an excuse to declare a true existential crisis in Russia and fully mobilize.

Again, these are mad thoughts that bear little adjacency to logical and sensible national action, but since when have the Russians been acting sane lately?

[Gusington]

^In light of the last year and half, I can see exactly what you posted actually happening...I hope you're wrong.

[Uberhaus]

As of mid-week, the Beeb is reporting 600 Wagner troops in Belarus.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-66234260

How many troops have relocated?
It is currently unclear exactly how many troops are relocating to Tsel.

The Belarusian investigative journalism outlet Hayun estimates that a total of 100 units - cars, trucks and coaches - and about 600 people might have travelled to Tsel.

BBC Verify has counted 31 large vehicles - probably trucks - in the footage showing the convoy that arrived at Tsel on Monday, although several might have been covered by trees.

In an address to the Russian nation on 26 June - after the end of the mutiny - President Vladimir Putin offered Wagner fighters the choice of signing contracts directly with the Russian Defence Ministry, or going to Belarus with leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The Poles aren't fools, they're reinforcing their border with Belarus as they did the border with Kalingrad last year.  A provocation like a cross border raid or infiltration would be spectacularly stupid on Wagner's part. If the Poles were somehow provoked into rash action, CSTO is falling apart and no one will send troops to aid Belarus or Russia.  https://www.businessinsider.com/csto-russia-equivalent-of-nato-crumbling-amid-failures-ukraine-war-2023-5?op=1

Well, here's me being spectacularly stupid; the Poles would be able to translate it much better.  Davai suka-tch!

[SirAndrewD]

I hope I'm wrong too. 

The scenario I'd expect would be to provoke Poland via Wagner to strike Belarus, or at least create room for a credible way to stage an attack. 

Then Poland and Belarus could be at war, with Russia being officially neutral. 

Of course Wagner being a semi-rouge third party would swell its ranks with loyal, patriotic Russian volunteers just like the DPR and LNR "militias" did. 

Even if Article 5 was invoked, the argument could be made that Russia has nothing to do with it.  I mean, you see how crazy those Wagnerites are right?  They marched on Moscow and almost overthrew the Russian government.  Russia would of course try to stop them, but they're fighting for their lives in Ukraine!  If NATO hadn't supported the Nazi regime in Kyiv then Russia would of course have already won, turned Ukraine into a paradise and would put these crazy Wagnerites in their place. 

Stuff almost writes itself.

[Uberhaus]

From the Russian perspective if they're dead set on eventually expanding the war to Poland and somehow getting around Article 5, the time is now.

The Pole's military expansion and modernization program is only three years old and they only now have accepted the first ten of the 1000 K2 Black Panthers they have on order from Hyundai.  Their first F-35's aren't far off either. 

I'd argue that considering they're stuck in a quagmire in Ukraine that is chewing Russia's resources up would put them in no shape to fight an even unsupported Poland today, but they certainly will be in no shape to take them a five years down the road even if they win in Ukraine tomorrow.

Expansion of the conflict to Poland, even without NATO, would give Putin an excuse to really ramp up the 2nd Great Patriotic War rhetoric and finally give him an excuse to declare a true existential crisis in Russia and fully mobilize.

Again, these are mad thoughts that bear little adjacency to logical and sensible national action, but since when have the Russians been acting sane lately?

This scenario would truly be an existential war for everyone.

[FarAway Sooner]

I think it only starts to get existential if NATO forces start crossing into Russian territory or attacking Russian cities.  Not that the Poles might not do that, but Polish offensive options without a nuclear deterrent versus a neighbor sporting thousands of nuclear warheads as a deterrent seem limited.

This is more of the brinksmanship that Putin played successfully (in Georgia, Chechnya, Eastern Ukraine, and Syria) until 2022 and unsuccessfully since then.  Whether any of his hardliners actually think a great mobilization of Mother Russia would resurrect the glories of WW 2 is hard to tell, but I think many of them must be delusional.  That, or they're just trying to stay in power for one more year and can't or won't think further ahead than that.

The Russian people, meanwhile, feed their youth into the wood chipper at a staggeringly enthusiastic rate, howling at the Nazi threat posed in the West.  (forgetting, among other things, that we also played an instrumental role in defeating the Nazis 80 years ago...)