Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

but what to do about Kalingrad?

[JasonPratt]

Demographically, with everything that follows logically and practically from that, Russia's government (very emphatically) IS in an existential crisis. They have so badly mis-managed their people that the government will soon have no national power to flex from its people. They won't admit that, of course, but all signs about what they're actually doing (and what they're not really capable of doing anymore) point to this internal problem.

It's important to keep this in mind, and not be distracted into throwing out the existential problem with their dumbass public justifications. (Which in turn are based on some important grains of truth, though not enough to actually justify what they're doing and trying to do.)

The Russian government aren't merely pretending to have an crisis of national existence, even though it looks that way to us based on how they're framing it for propaganda purposes (to avoid and shift blame away from their own selves). And that government, whoever is in charge, will continue acting against that crisis of eventual government failure. It would be nice if they acted in sane and helpful ways to bring the crashing airship of state into a belly landing for repair and eventual take-off again, instead of nose-diving harder into the ground trying a reverse split-S to gain enough speed for altitude after the transition (or aerobatic metaphors to that effect). But that depends on the people in charge.

And the people in charge, and with any likelihood to be in charge during the crash, are thieves abusing their people for their own profit.

That, or they're just trying to stay in power for one more year and can't or won't think further ahead than that.

Yep. Partly because there isn't anything real to plan ahead toward, which adds to the temptation to delusion.

The best short analysis I've heard about Shakespeare's play King John, is that it's a character study of a situation where practically every character only acts in his or her immediate short term interest, leading to continuing and escalating catastrophe.

[SirAndrewD]

Demographically, with everything that follows logically and practically from that, Russia's government (very emphatically) IS in an existential crisis. They have so badly mis-managed their people that the government will soon have no national power to flex from its people. They won't admit that, of course, but all signs about what they're actually doing (and what they're not really capable of doing anymore) point to this internal problem.

I completely agree with that assessment.

They find themselves in a worse situation in the long term than even Germany was in the 30's.  They're faced with two roads, become a more stable part of the international community and accept their place as a part of Europe and not its leader, or go to war to try to enforce their will.

Sadly they're choosing the second option.

Putin missed a golden opportunity to become the true father of a new Russia if he'd just demilitarized, de escalated the nuclear stockpile and had invested in his people rather than his Imperial ambitions.  It would've just meant that Russia would have to be a partner in greater Europe, and a slightly lesser one. 

 

[Gusington]

'It would be nice if they [the Russians] acted in sane and helpful ways.'

And that is really what this is all about, isn't it.

Fucking Russia[tm] 

[Sir Slash]

I don't know, I think the Russian people love a Strongman like they love vodka. Going back to Ivan the Terrible that's all they've ever known. If Putin had started acting like Gandhi, they would have tossed him out and put somebody else in who could've made the world fear the Russian bear again. Putin's not Stalin, but he's as close as they can get, for now.

[SirAndrewD]

I don't know, I think the Russian people love a Strongman like they love vodka. Going back to Ivan the Terrible that's all they've ever known. If Putin had started acting like Gandhi, they would have tossed him out and put somebody else in who could've made the world fear the Russian bear again. Putin's not Stalin, but he's as close as they can get, for now.

Possibly. 

I hate to agree with you but there's a series that interviews Russians on the street and it's almost universally showing Russians in Moscow angry that the war isn't more intense and extreme.

There are exceptions.  I saw one of those and was touched by this one very pretty lady that just went off on the insanity of the war, its cost, and she had the extreme bravery to call out Putin.

There's a thing that is a bit lost.  The call ups, conscription and sending a generation to the charnel house has been in many ways targeted to not effect the population that Putin relies on to stay in power.

Russia is huge and they've largely targeted for conscription and war demographics that don't effect the Russian European population at large.   

Many Russians don't feel this war at home, at least the Russians that "matter".  It's a war fought by the underclass and what general Russians feel are "undesirable".

The war is still popular, and many feel it should be expanded. The general European population see Russia as fighting all of the west and winning.  There is no ground support there to stop it.

[GDS_Starfury]

and thats the shitty reality of western help.  the war needs to be brought home to moscow but thats an escalation thats pretty dangerous imo.  there are legitimate frustrating limits unless you take the boiled frog approach.

[Uberhaus]

I support what you say about the vocal pro-war element, Sir A. You have to be amazed at the willingness to accept the lies, propaganda and indoctrination.

The anti-war population has been silenced with just under 20000 arrested, some for only holding up a blank piece of paper. It's disappointing that the majority of Russians didn't take to the streets knowing they all couldn't be arrested.  But a sentence of fifteen years for disparaging the Russian military has been effective in driving opposition underground.

It's a guess as to which, the vocal or silent, are the majority or the minority.  Another question is to the willingness of the Russians to abandon empire and become a junior partner in Europe and have greater prosperity.  Under Putin this would never happen, least of all because of European demand for lack of corruption and the jeopardy this would put the oligarchs in. Putin was clever enough to provide a decent standard of living for most Russians through the export of natural resources.  A further question is how much of the population will blame the West for their economic decline.

[SirAndrewD]

and thats the shitty reality of western help.  the war needs to be brought home to moscow but thats an escalation thats pretty dangerous imo.  there are legitimate frustrating limits unless you take the boiled frog approach.

I tend to agree and do so I feel understanding Russia and it limitations.

Zelensky this week was outwardly angry and said the current offensive was only limited by hesitant and late NATO support.

He's right.  Russia is insane but not enough to risk a nuclear exchange.  The West sent too little and too late.

The West's hesitancy has encouraged Moscow. We hesitated and now there's a legit play to get into Poland.

Russia must be beaten on the field.  It must be shown strength or it will test and push and go over lines we don't wish crossed. 

They aren't operating on a playing field we see as logical.  They honestly never have been.  This war has to be won, here, now or we risk a worse one a thousand fold later.

[GDS_Starfury]

the Ukraine Defense Minister opined that the war would be won by next summer.
from all Ive seen the AFUK (just like that acronym)just need the tools to hammer a sector or two and push through.
I know, easier said then done.

[GDS_Starfury]

The West sent too little and too late.

the release of cluster munitions seems to be have quite the effect right now.

[SirAndrewD]

The West sent too little and too late.

the release of cluster munitions seems to be have quite the effect right now.

They needed armor and airpower.  The munitions help and yeah, it's a war crime but it's one Russia committed a long time ago and extremely.

The unexploded munitions the Russians planted are going to be a gift that's going to keep on giving for a couple of centuries.  Cluster munitions aren't going to change that.

The UAF though needed armor and airpower.  Both could've been given earlier and weren't, and a lot of it was avoidable and was the pressure of lobbies I won't go into.


This is a war that must be won.  Read George Kennan and Dean Acheson and get the gist of it.

[GDS_Starfury]

it aint a war crime if you never sighed on 

[JasonPratt]

Speaking of Russian seduction and manipulation! ....and Putin, too, I guess!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ex-kgb-spy-who-trained-at-the-same-military-academy-as-putin-says-he-s-a-master-manipulator-brainwashed-russians/ar-AA1efbYK?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=0a211934be574752ae5ecc0efbad5e25&ei=33

[GDS_Starfury]

why is there always that muddy ditch

https://twitter.com/i/status/1683248376324784129