Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Windigo]

well something took a hit.  early morning russian reports were at least 1 dead and 4 or 5 wounded.

In Russia, that is un-success drone attack! By drone! 

Regarding Leningrad: true, it's easy to forget that as bad as Stalingrad was, Leningrad was even worse despite nowhere near as much fighting nearby and in it.

But I'm not sure the Crimean Russian occupiers of today have the fortitude to hold out in Godawful siege situations. Despite Russian propaganda, it'll become clear the Uks aren't Nazis -- or at least not in the sense required -- and plenty of civilians in Crimea may be prepared to welcome the Ukrainians, and the West by extension, with at least grudging relief. Maybe better.

I fully expect Crimea civilians will be the key to whether any occupying troops in the area, who are willing to try waiting it out, will be able to bunker down successfully for as long as it takes -- or not. But first comes the question of how many Russian troops will care to try, and for how long.

Which brings up a very delicious scenario of the west offering/bringing in humanitarian aide into Crimea.... with conditions LoL.

[insert Dr. Evil laugh]

damn that could get really messy though

[Sir Slash]

Frankly, I'm surprised there's as much info out there as we have. You'd think both sides would be VERY tight-Lipped about anything going on good or bad. And to the extent they are, all we have is pro or anti posts, videos and blogs. I guess this reflects the desire of both sides to win the Public Image War, feed the international appetite for constant new news, and probably they know it's almost impossible to hide  shit from everyone anyway.

I thought the Russkies had moved a whole bunch of new Russian settlers into the Crimea since they took over. Any idea if true and how many?

[Uberhaus]

I believe there was a retired senior military officer that talked about the blockading of Crimea, with the Red Cross evacuating the civilian population.  I thought it might be Maj. General Mick Ryan or Colonel de Bretton-Gordon but I can't find it now.

[Tripoli]

Here's an article from the Moscow Times talking about back-channel US-Russian conversations, and allegedly interviewing a US source with involved in the talks.  I'm putting it out on this board for everyone's situational awareness, only.  It very well may be a piece of disinformation, or, more likely, an attempt by a faction in the US to push a certain viewpoint.  Or it could be legit.  Or not.  In any case, I found a couple of useful nuggets in the article:

1. "it was apparent that the greatest issue was that the Russians were unable to articulate what exactly they wanted and needed. "They don't know how to define victory or defeat. In fact, some of the elites to whom we spoke had never wanted the war in the first place, even saying it had been a complete mistake," he said. "But now they're at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys."
2. "In fact, we emphasized that the U.S. needs, and will continue to need, a strong enough Russia to create stability along its periphery. The U.S. wants a Russia with strategic autonomy in order for the U.S. to advance diplomatic opportunities in Central Asia. We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world."
3.  "But the former official expressed a sense of impasse in the ongoing secret talks. "In Russian diplomacy, everything is now linked, all built around the locus of the war making it impossible to do any productive forms of diplomacy." The problem was less with the Russian elite as a whole than it was with Putin specifically, he explained. "Putin is the major block to all progress," he said. "The U.S. administration has made at least  one attempt to speak with the Kremlin but Putin himself refused." For this reason, he argued, Washington "should begin reaching out to the anti-war Russian elite and begin making progress with them."

 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/former-us-official-shares-details-of-secret-track-15-diplomacy-with-moscow-a81972

[Gusington]

Belarus appears to want to royally piss off both Poland and Romania with Danube attacks, helicopter incursions and border violations today.

[FarAway Sooner]

Frankly, I'm surprised there's as much info out there as we have. You'd think both sides would be VERY tight-Lipped about anything going on good or bad. And to the extent they are, all we have is pro or anti posts, videos and blogs. I guess this reflects the desire of both sides to win the Public Image War, feed the international appetite for constant new news, and probably they know it's almost impossible to hide  shit from everyone anyway.

I've been surprised by that too.  I'd always imagined that Russia had tighter control over state-run media.

What I came to realize was that they DO have that control.  For whatever reason, nobody is allowed to talk badly about Putin or about the decision to go to war.  They ARE allowed to criticize the generals and the conduct of the war.

I'm assuming that this is mandated by Putin because he doesn't want any rivals who might rise up to replace him from the ranks of the military.  I'm assuming it's also to create some space between him and whatever generals he chooses to scapegoat if he has to settle for a less than perfect outcome.

Speculating on Putin's motives--or even his rationality--at this point seems pointless.  All I can conclude is that Russian media controls are working but their scope has changed.

[Windigo]

Here's an article from the Moscow Times talking about back-channel US-Russian conversations, and allegedly interviewing a US source with involved in the talks.  I'm putting it out on this board for everyone's situational awareness, only.  It very well may be a piece of disinformation, or, more likely, an attempt by a faction in the US to push a certain viewpoint.  Or it could be legit.  Or not.  In any case, I found a couple of useful nuggets in the article:

1. "it was apparent that the greatest issue was that the Russians were unable to articulate what exactly they wanted and needed. "They don't know how to define victory or defeat. In fact, some of the elites to whom we spoke had never wanted the war in the first place, even saying it had been a complete mistake," he said. "But now they're at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys."
2. "In fact, we emphasized that the U.S. needs, and will continue to need, a strong enough Russia to create stability along its periphery. The U.S. wants a Russia with strategic autonomy in order for the U.S. to advance diplomatic opportunities in Central Asia. We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world."
3.  "But the former official expressed a sense of impasse in the ongoing secret talks. "In Russian diplomacy, everything is now linked, all built around the locus of the war making it impossible to do any productive forms of diplomacy." The problem was less with the Russian elite as a whole than it was with Putin specifically, he explained. "Putin is the major block to all progress," he said. "The U.S. administration has made at least  one attempt to speak with the Kremlin but Putin himself refused." For this reason, he argued, Washington "should begin reaching out to the anti-war Russian elite and begin making progress with them."

 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/former-us-official-shares-details-of-secret-track-15-diplomacy-with-moscow-a81972

IMO #2 is made up and extremely artificial, a panacea/out for Russian elite as the war continues to go sideways for them. If/when the UAF regains all previous territory, what's the end game for Russia? Why #2 of course. This of course will require some sort of aid as russia's economy is/will be even more of a shit show after this.

Any sort of stalemate, or even a russian win now IMO is so pyrrhic for the Russian's they will be a dead man walking.

[SirAndrewD]

well something took a hit.  early morning russian reports were at leat 1 dead and 4 or 5 wounded.

You know how Russian MOD reports are. 

According to them the Moskva is fine and undergoing a submersible conversion refit.

[GDS_Starfury]

the info was picked up from a radio call between a helicopter and shore, possibly a medivac flight for the wounded.
russia also stated that all drones were destroyed 
which of course they would be if they hit their targets.

[Windigo]

Comrade, all drones were successfully intercepted by the hulls of our glorious naval vessels.

[bobarossa]

Frankly, I'm surprised there's as much info out there as we have. You'd think both sides would be VERY tight-Lipped about anything going on good or bad. And to the extent they are, all we have is pro or anti posts, videos and blogs. I guess this reflects the desire of both sides to win the Public Image War, feed the international appetite for constant new news, and probably they know it's almost impossible to hide  shit from everyone anyway.

I thought the Russkies had moved a whole bunch of new Russian settlers into the Crimea since they took over. Any idea if true and how many?

Found this article on the water problems in Crimea in 2020 (from a Ukrainian site).
https://www.unian.info/economics/without-water-occupied-crimea-turning-into-a-desert-11163674.html

quote:"For all six years they haven't been saving water at all. Fir all six years, our reservoirs have been drying up... They didn't want to spoil the picture of the 'Russian world'," says Edem Dudakov.

At the same time, people were urged to move en masse to the peninsula from mainland Russia. "Approximately 350,000 people – military, their families – are those special kinds of people who were relocated here with great benefits for the purchase of real estate, etc.," says Dudakov.

At least 350,000 new residents is an impressive figure for Crimea. That approximately equals the entire population of Simferopol. That is, another big city was added to Crimea. But it was not about savings. On the contrary, new construction sites emerged, including military bases. And, of course, they all needed water.

Wikipedia says the 2021 Russian census showed Crimea with a total population of 1,934,630.

[Windigo]

Ahhh yes water.... the necessity of life and the mother of all other resources utilized my man.

[GDS_Starfury]

Ahhh yes water beer.... the necessity of life and the mother of all other resources utilized my man.

fixed

[Windigo]

you would pour beer over freshly forged iron? Maybe 2nd hand beer...

[GDS_Starfury]

use coors light, its basically water.