Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Crossroads]

Hmmm. If Prigo wasn't on that plane, things might get interesting. Then again, if he in fact was on that plane, things might get interesting then too.

What I know his men are fiercely loyal to him. Of course, push seems to have come to a shove, whether lip service or not.

[ArizonaTank]

Wonder who the other "lucky" folks were in the plane? How did they score that lucky ticket.

Interesting that at about the same time, there are reports that General Sergei Surovikin, who apparently participated in or may have supported the coup attempt, has been officially "fired." Let me predict his future:  He trips on a spoon and falls out a 20th story window on his way to the bathroom.

Also, I think it is interesting that after a long silence, Prigo released a video yesterday talking about how Wagner would make Africa 'more free' and Russian 'greater.'  Was this a last attempt to save himself? We will never know, and in the end its not really important.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/22/wagner-prigozhin-recruiting-post-russia-rebellion-video-africa-putin

[GDS_Starfury]

You would think that the European interest in restoring peace and stability would be paramount. Unfortunately, prolonging and escalating a war that will result in the removal of Russia as a geopolitical competitor for global markets, no matter the cost to others, including American citizens and the rest of the world at large, seems to be the overriding motive of the US economic machine, of the MIC and others.

or maybe, since they exist next door to them, they know exactly how shitty and morally bankrupt russia is.
it will not honor peace deals or peace treaties and sooner or later its appetite is going to looking for the next country to try and absorb.  50 some odd years of violent oppression kinda makes you not trust the people that oppressed you.

[ArizonaTank]

Then again, to be truly able to use her population advantage, Russia would need to call a mobilisation....

I wonder if one reason we haven't seen this is because of paranoia on Putin's part. By some accounts he is having a hard time keeping hard-liners at bay.

Maybe he is thinking he really doesn't want to arm another 1 or 2 million Russians.

[GDS_Starfury]

russias population issues have been covered a fair bit earlier in the thread.
simply put, they cant field an army like they used to and keep the country running at the same time.

[GDS_Starfury]

 

[SirAndrewD]

It was widely reported in May that Ukraine's CIC Zaluzhnyi refused a meeting with NATO to go over his overall strategy for the counteroffensive. 

Well, apparently in just the last two days he and some of the Ukraine high command finally sat down with NATO to discuss the overall strategy and he was pretty much taken to the mattresses by NATO officers. 

Some of the key points were:

1. Ukraine has opened far too many axis of advance in the offensive and in most places too far to mutually support.

2. The Bakhmut axis has had no true strategic value, is not causing the Russians to have to redeploy due to its extreme distance from the main thrust to defend and is chewing up large amounts of Ukrainian resources that would've best been spent in the Zaporizhzhia front. 

3. The Ukrainian Mid level and Junior officers are not employing NATO equipment efficiently or correctly.  They are primarily using their armor in piecemeal fire support roles operating in platoons or even sections that are not mutually supporting.  Once finally committed after too much delay, they are primarily using their tanks in stand off engagements as infantry support, not as a maneuver element.

4. Ukrainian troops are very effective but the UAF is falling into Soviet style command and control systems where NCO's and Junior Officers are being given little individual initiative and training.

5. Inflicting casualties while taking few losses is becoming far too heavily emphasized rather than seizing territory and displacing Russian positions.  Several times the UAF has taken ground and then surrendered it so that they could invite a Russian counterattack into premade traps.  This is the old style "Body Count" problem that leads down the path to attrition warfare.

To that end Zaluzhnyi was encouraged to end the offensive in Bakhmut completely, stop the counterattacks in Adrivka and concentrate his forces on just one of the advance axis in Zaporizhzhia.

Will the UAF high command follow this?  Who knows.  It was said back in April that UAF officers were largely ignoring their NATO training doctrine, and were being told to do this from high up the chain in command.  They seem very tied to the idea of pressure everywhere making the balloon pop rather than a pinprick.

Considering the problems in morale and supply the Russians are having in Zaporizhzhia there has been some success to this, but as is noted this strategy is one that could potentially take years to complete. 

History will have to judge who was right.

[Windigo]

I wonder what their (UAF) thinking is behind these decisions? Punish the bear? Make it bleed for what it has done? Concern that capturing larger tracks of territory will make them more vulnerable than what is occurring now?
Yes, you drive purposely towards the sea and the Russkies will throw a whole tonne of shit at you to stop you, that is something you plan for, but maybe they don't trust their ability to follow up such a drive with anti-air assets and artillery support?

I don't know.

Is there a game afoot to maximize western aide/support to siphon off a portion? (corruption is real, but hoipefully overstated). That is a WAG, but who knows.

I suspect though that it is senior leadership and their soviet paradigms

[FarAway Sooner]

Interesting stuff, all!  A few general responses:

• Con, thanks for the book recommendation.  I already ordered it on Amazon as a present to myself.
   I've not worked in industrial manufacturing and I appreciate your viewpoints.  I get why an inability to machine new parts might slow down our ability to get them all sorts of equipment, but my sense is that producing artillery shells is not QUITE as complicated.  Tell me I'm wrong and I'll believe you.  But my sense is that all of NATO has been relying on a profit-driven contracting & procurement system that is about as nimble as a Gerald R. Ford-class carrier missing most of its screws.
• Jarhead, I understand and appreciate your cynicism about the motives of various actors in the West.  But do you really think Ukraine is in imminent danger of losing the war?  The costs that they're sustaining are murderously high, but my sense is that the atrocities of the Russian invaders have driven their cost tolerance to levels the Russians can only imagine.  As has been pointed out elsewhere, it is a war of survival for the Ukrainians, while the Russians have many options short of national cultural extinction.
• If Prigozhin was on that plane, we all know what that means.  He made the mistake of sitting in a window seat.

[Jarhead0331]

Jarhead, I understand and appreciate your cynicism about the motives of various actors in the West.  But do you really think Ukraine is in imminent danger of losing the war?  The costs that they're sustaining are murderously high, but my sense is that the atrocities of the Russian invaders have driven their cost tolerance to levels the Russians can only imagine.  As has been pointed out elsewhere, it is a war of survival for the Ukrainians, while the Russians have many options short of national cultural extinction.[/li][/list]

"Imminent" danger? No. Eventual danger, absolutely. I do not think Ukraine can win a war against Russia that will continue to grind on in attrition. Defeat is a statistical certainty.  I think you may underestimate the Russian tolerance for war too. If you leave the cities and head out to the countryside, most support the war and Putin, and believe the propaganda they have been fed.

[GDS_Starfury]

I do not think Ukraine can win a war against Russia that will continue to grind on in attrition.

something something Vietnam vs US.

[Jarhead0331]

I do not think Ukraine can win a war against Russia that will continue to grind on in attrition.

something something Vietnam vs US.

No comparison whatsoever. Apples and oranges.

[GDS_Starfury]

so guess who has shrapnel holes all over their crashed airplane. 

[GDS_Starfury]

I do not think Ukraine can win a war against Russia that will continue to grind on in attrition.

something something Vietnam vs US.

No comparison whatsoever. Apples and oranges.

youre right, we were a much more capable country and military then then russia is now.

[FarAway Sooner]

Perhaps.  Lots of differences between the two, to be sure.  But many of those differences (not all) favor the Ukrainians.  And I think it's fair to point to the similarities as well.

Like you, I am leery of Russia's cost tolerance.  WW 2 was an appalling example of that cultural trait. 

Which is all the more reason why unflagging support for Ukraine is important.  The trick, I think, is to ask tough, critical questions about the effectiveness and aims of that support, with an eye towards what's important, even as you continue to support the fundamental cause.  I'm pretty sure we agree on that.