Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

On one hand, the problem is that Russia is also facing an existential crisis, just not the same one as (inflicted upon) Ukraine, nor the same one Russia is propagandizing as coming from Ukraine. If the current Russian government doesn't win control of Ukraine, they die (metaphorically and maybe literally); and thus Russia as a nation will fall apart and in that sense die (maybe more literally, too).

On the other hand, the longer Russia fights to take Ukraine, the faster their own existential threat as a governmental nation ramps up. Their list of allies grows thin, and some of them (China especially) want Russia to spiral into disaster in order to seize resources and means of production to stave off their own accelerating slow-motion existential implosion. (Evergrande is finally going bankrupt, as expected though somewhat later than expected, and that's definitely going to set off another trail of dominoes in China.)

Russia's only real chance was to force a Ukranian collapse in 24-to-48 hours. Every day since then has eroded Russia a little faster than Russia was already eroding before the war, and then the sanctions started pressing down.

Russia can't seriously mobilize, partly due to risks of revolution and military revolt against the mafia regime; partly due to needing to keep workers busy bailing out the ship of state and supplying what trickles they can to their own troops; and partly because the Russian logistic capability is so poor they have a slowly shrinking limit how many troops of various kinds (including air) they can support.

I'm sure the UAF understands most or all of this. They're playing for a combined pressure collapse in several ways.

But neither can Russia's government just quit and go home. They weren't going to survive in the medium-run, and they've whittled away the length of that run.


Meanwhile, I hope Prigo has finally become more representative of my Prego jokes. When I went to bed last night, the chatter was "Can Prigo force an shift of the axis of support or whatever?" Today I get home from an extra busy day and it's meatball-and-sauce time!

(If that was a SAM, he may indeed have gone out a window in good Russian style...)

[JasonPratt]

Which is all the more reason why unflagging support for Ukraine is important.  The trick, I think, is to ask tough, critical questions about the effectiveness and aims of that support, with an eye towards what's important, even as you continue to support the fundamental cause.  I'm pretty sure we agree on that.

Yep! -- and by the same token I don't think it hurts to be as suspicious as JH over various motives of the support. Heck, I've been on record since kickoff last year about being suspicious of Ukraine's national role as a shady neutral supporter of a one-world totalitarian government (run by actual damned Satanists no less)! I don't think becoming a NATO member (or candidate member) will mollify that a lot. (...hm, this would be a good time for me to poke some fun back at myself with a tinfoil hat smiley, but I can't find something proper... suggestions welcome!  )

Life is complicated. But I'm willing to root for the population of a tool of supervillains, and thus for their armed forces, too, against the armies working directly for a supervillain.

Whether the side I'm rooting for can win, is another question entirely. But I think the question of their eventual victory is larger (and to be fair potentially more dangerous) than the various operational situations, even though those look to have room for improvement. (Maybe lots and lots of room.)

[Sir Slash]

I believe the Vietnamese had a massive jungle-covered, completely undeveloped landscape to fight in back in the 60's along with a centuries-old tradition of insurgency against foreign powers, and a willingness to throw-away massive numbers of it's people in order to wear-down it's enemies. Ukraine has none of these. Americans were allowed to speak freely against that war, Russians are not. Where's the similarity?

Ukraine needs everyone of it's precious youth to build a free nation that with it's abundant God-given resources will dwarf Russia economically, diplomatically, and Culturally one day. Not dying over a muddy trench in a ruined landscape. 

[GDS_Starfury]

during the first few weeks of the war I recall a lot of talk from the Pentagon about setting up systems and supplies for an insurgency war.  and then the corner was turned and here we are.  you mention undeveloped landscape and Im looking at whats essentially Normandy writ larger.  I would also posit the Ukraine right now is willing to throw massive numbers of its people into winning this war.

Ukraine needs everyone of it's precious youth to build a free nation that with it's abundant God-given resources will dwarf Russia economically, diplomatically, and Culturally one day.

they first need a country that exists to do that in.  right there is the crux of it. the rest is irrelevant if Ukraine ceases to exist.

[Uberhaus]

ISW does a good job of explaining how Prigozhin's utility was eroded and the coincidence of Surovkin's removal and how the cover up will likely proceed.  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23-2023

I knew about the two defections from Wagner, and the Russian MoDs attempts to raise it's own PMCs for Africa, but thought they were insufficient to be of threat to Prigozhin.  I also wondered if Prigozhin had used the threat of release of compromising material to keep himself alive.  Hopefully in the next few days or months, the world will learn some very evil secret of the Kremlin, such as who blew up the apartments in Moscow and why; or what the St. Petersburg troll factory actually did.  Or maybe not at all.

I won't even go to the BBC mentioning a second plane (page 4 currently)  https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66599774/page/4  That would be some pretty James Bond villian shit. 

15:05 23 Aug
Data shows second plane flew towards Moscow
Some Russian Telegram channels have speculated that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin might have been on a different plane to the one that crashed today.

The other jet, another Embraer 600, has a registration number RA-02748.

The plane's flight records are partially inaccessible through FlightRadar24, a popular aircraft tracking website.

But data shows it departed from St Petersburg earlier today and flew towards Moscow. The trail disappears near Ostafyevo airport in the Russian capital.

The BBC has been unable to confirm if he was on board.

[Jarhead0331]

Until his remains are found and confirmed to be his, as far as I'm concerned, he is still alive. It doesn't seem logical. Why would he launch his little coup and then call it off while it was achieving success if he knew doing so would certainly lead to his demise? He's far too much of a ruthless, self-interested animal to fall for that. I just feel like part of the deal he cut with Putin is that he had to disappear in order to permit Putin to save face and prevent others from getting the same idea.

[Uberhaus]

It was reported that the FSB took hostages from the Wagner leaders' families during the rebellion.  I'm going to have to cite the Moscow Times quoting the Telegraph, even a specific internet search gets buried under yesterday's news.  It is a pretty typical course of action for the FSB going way back, though. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/26/threats-to-wagner-leaders-families-preceded-mutiny-stand-down-telegraph-a81642

The article also states that there were only 8000 Wagner troops marching on Moscow.  The reasons will be a historical mystery to puzzle over.  Even the BBC is still reporting that some experts say the whole rebellion was staged, but it's quite some Maskirovka to shoot down an irreplaceable command and control aircraft, as well as other aircraft and finally blow up a huge fuel depot.  Dr. Condoleeza Rice, who has been vey close to the Kremlin in her role as Secretary of State and NSA briefly considered this possibility.  However, she stated that Putin lost way too much face especially over Prigozhin's statements about what started the war in Ukraine. https://www.newsweek.com/prigozhin-exposes-most-damaging-thing-putin-condoleezza-rice-says-1809125 

"Probably the most damaging thing about this is that Prigozhin said what has been unspoken by those who have supported the war," said Rice, who served as secretary of state from 2005 to 2009 under President George W. Bush. "That this is actually a war that did not have to take place, where hundreds of thousands of Russians did not have to die, where a million people didn't have to flee the country. That, to me, is the most damaging thing that Prigozhin has done [to Putin]."

Prigozhin certainly was/is? ruthless, and clever enough to survive the Kremlin and prosper, but his downfall is impulsivity.

[MengJiao]

It was widely reported in May that Ukraine's CIC Zaluzhnyi refused a meeting with NATO to go over his overall strategy for the counteroffensive. 

Well, apparently in just the last two days he and some of the Ukraine high command finally sat down with NATO to discuss the overall strategy and he was pretty much taken to the mattresses by NATO officers. 

Some of the key points were:

Considering the problems in morale and supply the Russians are having in Zaporizhzhia there has been some success to this, but as is noted this strategy is one that could potentially take years to complete. 

History will have to judge who was right.

  I'm thinking the Ukrainians are probably doing the right thing because firepower is so much deadlier now.
With drones targeting and smart munitions, dodging enemy fire is both a lot harder and a lot more rewarding in the long run.
  So if the Ukrainians keep winning the firepower attrition war, avoid losses and keep pounding the Russians they will win eventually -- it's mathematical certainty.

[JasonPratt]

8000 troops might have been enough to take over Moscow under the circumstances at that time (although Prigo couldn't possibly move fast enough to catch Putin to 'rescue' him or whatever {cough}), but Prigo had overtly been hoping for a general military uprising following his lead, and that barely even tried to begin to happen. Without that, he was going to be going up against all of Russia's remaining troops, in Russia, without NATO/EU support, with a split force of his own.

Even leaving aside threats to his family and some other factors, he failed to establish support to continue the coup.

[JasonPratt]

So if the Ukrainians keep winning the firepower attrition war, avoid losses and keep pounding the Russians they will win eventually -- it's mathematical certainty.

Against a proper Western military that wouldn't be true, or even against a Stalinist military for local comparison. Against a mafia state which is falling apart and which has habitually crippled its military to protect itself from internal revolution, I do think their overall strategy has merit. A lot will depend on whether Ukraine's external logistic support can and will continue, however.

[Jarhead0331]

It was widely reported in May that Ukraine's CIC Zaluzhnyi refused a meeting with NATO to go over his overall strategy for the counteroffensive. 

Well, apparently in just the last two days he and some of the Ukraine high command finally sat down with NATO to discuss the overall strategy and he was pretty much taken to the mattresses by NATO officers. 

Some of the key points were:

Considering the problems in morale and supply the Russians are having in Zaporizhzhia there has been some success to this, but as is noted this strategy is one that could potentially take years to complete. 

History will have to judge who was right.

  I'm thinking the Ukrainians are probably doing the right thing because firepower is so much deadlier now.
With drones targeting and smart munitions, dodging enemy fire is both a lot harder and a lot more rewarding in the long run.
  So if the Ukrainians keep winning the firepower attrition war, avoid losses and keep pounding the Russians they will win eventually -- it's mathematical certainty.

As of August 18, 2023, US intelligence officials acknowledge that Ukrainian military casualties are approaching 500,000. What mathematical certainty are you referring to?

I want to state for the record that these are not facts that bring me any comfort or joy. I am 100% against this illegal war. However, I believe in the truth, reality and cold hard facts. I hope the war ends with an outcome that is acceptable to Ukraine, but I'm quite confident that the time and numbers are not on Ukraine's side.

[Pete Dero]

As of August 18, 2023, US intelligence officials acknowledge that Ukrainian military casualties are approaching 500,000. What mathematical certainty are you referring to?

I believe that number includes Ukrainian and Russian casualties.

The number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022 is nearing 500,000, the New York Times reported on Friday, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

The officials cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures, the newspaper said.

Russia's military casualties are approaching 300,000, including as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injuries, the newspaper reported.
Ukrainian deaths were close to 70,000, with 100,000 to 120,000 wounded, it added.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/troop-deaths-injures-ukraine-war-nearing-500000-nyt-citing-us-officials-2023-08-18/

[Windigo]

The way I see this going down (now) is eventually the UAF will strangle off most if not all of the Russkies line of supply. Bridges of all sorts will be gone. Then what? Supply by sea? They'll still need highway bridges and railway bridges. I don't see the Russkies doing so well. Unfortunately, I also see a refugee crisis/famine in the future in the occupied territory as Russkie soldier's needs take precendent over civilians. 

[MengJiao]

It was widely reported in May that Ukraine's CIC Zaluzhnyi refused a meeting with NATO to go over his overall strategy for the counteroffensive. 

Well, apparently in just the last two days he and some of the Ukraine high command finally sat down with NATO to discuss the overall strategy and he was pretty much taken to the mattresses by NATO officers. 

Some of the key points were:

Considering the problems in morale and supply the Russians are having in Zaporizhzhia there has been some success to this, but as is noted this strategy is one that could potentially take years to complete. 

History will have to judge who was right.

  I'm thinking the Ukrainians are probably doing the right thing because firepower is so much deadlier now.
With drones targeting and smart munitions, dodging enemy fire is both a lot harder and a lot more rewarding in the long run.
  So if the Ukrainians keep winning the firepower attrition war, avoid losses and keep pounding the Russians they will win eventually -- it's mathematical certainty.

As of August 18, 2023, US intelligence officials acknowledge that Ukrainian military casualties are approaching 500,000. What mathematical certainty are you referring to?

I want to state for the record that these are not facts that bring me any comfort or joy. I am 100% against this illegal war. However, I believe in the truth, reality and cold hard facts. I hope the war ends with an outcome that is acceptable to Ukraine, but I'm quite confident that the time and numbers are not on Ukraine's side.

Clearly you are as confident as you claim, but the Ukrainians have been winning against the odds so far and now the odds are shifting steadily in their favor -- If (and this is of course the big if) -- they go on winning the firepower war (ie, their weapons with apparently better targeting and better targetting priorities and better strategic understanding than either NATO or the Russians -- steadily destroy and degrade Russian fire effectiveness across the board day after day)-- anyway IF, they steadily win the firepower war eventually there will be an inflection point so obvious to everyone that the Ukrainians will push on to their objectives -- which are after all very limited -- and effectively win the war.

[JasonPratt]

Strictly speaking, Ukraine won't win the war until they annoy the Russians out of continuing to fight. Taking back the Donbass and Crimea (and anything related between them) won't necessarily end the war.

For that matter, Russia could pull a North Korea and keep the war going in an indefinite stalemate.

Or like China, they may declare themselves to be in a permanent state of war with Ukraine, or rather in their view Ukrainian occupiers (instead of against the whole world like China, but hey maybe go back to the Comintern/USSR model on that as well), and simply shift their means around to something more doable for ongoing current circumstances and capabilities.

Even a Russian governmental collapse wouldn't necessarily end the war per se. But the fighting could stop for an indefinite and protracted period until when-if-ever the new regime(s) make actual peace with Ukraine's government.