Russia's War Against Ukraine

[ArizonaTank]

they literally can't.  this has been discussed ad nauseam.

You really don't know that for certain. Nobody on this forum really has the ability to answer that question with certainly.

Certainly there are very high barriers. But I don't think its 'impossible.' If Putin could manage to pull together the right sort of brutal cabal (Lavrentiy Beria 2.0 and associates), he could go 'all North Korea' or 'Germany '45'. He would get a low-tech, untrained conscript army, but he could get a very large one (how effective they would be is another question).

I for one don't see Putin being able to do this. I say this only because I think Putin's Russia is basically a state run by sophisticated Mafia, and not a dedicated group of hard core klepto-idealists.

But I really don't know what Putin is capable of at the end of the day and I think there is a possibility.

[GDS_Starfury]

He would get a low-tech, untrained conscript army, but he could get a very large one (how effective they would be is another question).

Barbarossa would probably be a good indication of what would happen to the russians. 
to get that army would require him to pull people from metropolitan areas and then you would see real resistance
to continuing the war.  so far it seems that the conscripts raised have come mostly from rural areas that moscow
finds expendable.  these are also the people with the least income and economic impact.

[GDS_Starfury]

so where are the bodies?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1695049014687781077

[Sir Slash]

I think Putin may have greatly underestimated Prigo's popularity with the Russian peasantry and older class who pine for the old USSR to return. He might wish he had him back before too long. And maybe he ought to stay off airplanes for awhile. 

[Windigo]

Yeah, I am solidly with Star on this one. The logistics behind a million strong fielded army is something that is beyond the ork's capacity now. Even if they went old school with arming only half of them, the food and water requirements alone would be huge and would have to be be ala horse cart.

I am thinking now that maybe why it is a slow roll offensive is to give the Russian leadership time to consider the inevitable loss forthcoming - and maybe come up with their own political solution to withdrawing from the Ukraine.

[Sir Slash]

Yeah, I don't think the Russians could conquer Ukraine right now either. The Ukes have had a taste of Freedom and would not go back under the Russian yoke while still breathing. If the Russkies could conquer it, it'd take a million men decades to rule over it and only then with mass genocide of the Ukrainian people. Rather than making Russia stronger, it would make them much weaker for a generation or more.

BTW, I have it on good authority that Prigo was trying to tell everybody on the plane that he saw a Gremlin on the wing. 

[FarAway Sooner]

Poor Billy Shatner...

My endocrinologist's older brother had him as a local babysitter a couple times growing up.  That was obviously well before he got into the acting thing.  Those damn Canucks all know each other!

[JasonPratt]

Regarding a comparison of Barbarossa to Putin mobilizing a million-man army to streamroll Ukraine (or do literally anything at all):

It's important to emphasize and keep firmly in mind that Stalin didn't just call up his peasants and use haxxor cheats to spawn umpty-thousand tanks, airplanes, arty, and all the things which go with those things.

Stalin had been working on getting all that ready since at least as far back as 1928. And he had 16 fully kitted armies up on the border on June 21st 1941, with another seven (iirc) on the way from far inland (stacking up already against the trains still bringing the final troops and kit and fuel etc to the 16 armies of the First Strategic Echelon on the border, plus the empty trains trying to run the logistic grid back inland to get more stuff.) That troop movement still remains the single greatest logistic feat of all human history, and it started well back well into 1940.

And Stalin had basically wrecked his nation getting all that ready to go and up on the line or on the way. The Soviet Union was guaranteed to die in 1941 without Hitler attacking! -- unless Stalin did something useful with all that kit and personnel first.

Putin hasn't been working on any of that, at all, at any time. It would be counterproductive to his regime to work on that, because then the military would be more likely to overthrow the mafia and run the country themselves! And his military is at least 10x worse right now than it was when he invaded last year. The best he can do is penny-parcel out low-morale increasingly green troops to the front(s).

Taking a year pause might help his planning for next time, but it won't help a lot of his other problems. (And that assumes he and his crew manage to plan better next time, against their own internal and external constraints against effective military planning!)

Putin can still put out a lot of hurt by the standards of a third world country which is practically a cargo-cult now; but any positive comparisons to what Stalin and his crew were able to do in 41 to 45 are a fantasy. (Not even counting all the weaknesses of Stalin & Co.) Putin has not put in the decades of work necessary to play at Stalin's level.

I think Putin's Russia is basically a state run by sophisticated Mafia, and not a dedicated group of hard core klepto-idealists.

100% agree. But even the latter have to (and had to, and did) put in the work, to get the results.

[MengJiao]

I am thinking now that maybe why it is a slow roll offensive is to give the Russian leadership time to consider the inevitable loss forthcoming - and maybe come up with their own political solution to withdrawing from the Ukraine.

  They just have to invent another "existential crisis"...apparently even getting canceled like JK Rowling doesn't cut it as "existential" enough.  I'm sure there's some small region in Asia or Africa they could throw their army into to fight for Russia's historical this and that while having the appropriate soul-searching on the part of the Church.

And there's a lot about Putin and JK Rowling out there such as:

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-jk-rowling-cancel-culture-comparison-video-translation-progressive-discrimination-2022-3

[GDS_Starfury]

Regarding a comparison of Barbarossa to Putin mobilizing a million-man army to streamroll Ukraine (or do literally anything at all):

let me clarify.
I didn't mean that putin could pull off a Barbarossa.  I ment that a russian army that size today would suffer the same defeats that they did in the summer of 1941.

[Skoop]

Never thought I'd quote Lindsay Graham, but "3 percent of the US defense budget destroyed half the Russian army".  Sounds like money we'll spent to me.

[GDS_Starfury]

and its mostly for equipment and ordinance thats been bought and payed for decades ago.
we get rid of stuff thats been sitting on a shelf and about to reach the end of its service life
while buying newer, more better versions.   

[SirAndrewD]

The Wall Street Journal went a bit more into the confrence between Zaluzhnyi and NATO that happened earlier this week. 

According to them Zaluzhnyi directly rebuffed NATO suggestions and sources are directly quoting him:

 "You don't understand the nature of this conflict. This is not counterinsurgency; this is Kursk."

This connects with statements made previously by anonymous UAF sources that said NATO, especially American training was completely out of touch with their opinions of the nature of the conflict, and spent a significant amount of time assuming lightly contested breakthroughs followed by urban combat and counterinsurgency warfare, more in line with situations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Zaluzhnyi has directly told his NATO advisors that he and the Ukrainian MOD are highly confident that their tactics will produce a breakthrough, and that significant  reserves are being held for that eventuality. 

This reinforces the idea that Zaluzhnyi's goal is a larger general collapse rather than a narrow schwerepunkt cutting the Russian forces in two.

To that end, the UAF has again been widening the gap in their main breakthrough at Robotyne, while only pushing slightly beyond it.  They are also continuing to rotate brigades rather than commit heavily in order to bring sustained pressure, while the Russians are having significant problems relieving their men.

Russian intercepts are making the problem clear.  Local commanders are bemoaning the lack of relief and reserves, and there are indications that they've had to commit most of the third line of defense to try to hold the second.  The first is being rolled up.

Most importantly, Russian intercepts in the south are confirming that the Russian forces around Robotyne are now totally out of armor reserves.

The UAF strategy of using Western armor as standoff, with their superior optics allowing them to destroy Russian vehicles outside of their ability to respond, has degraded the Russian forces access to tanks and IFV's to the point where they are almost totally gone from the Robotyne axis. 

The Russians seem to have committed most of their armor reserves to the stalled offensive in Kupiansk, and the continuing attempt to hold the flanks of Bakhmut. 

[Uberhaus]

To support what Skoop and Starfury have just stated, geopolitical forecaster Peter Zeihan: 

If you can't watch all of it, watch from the 4:28 mark.
Written:  https://zeihan.com/f-16-fighter-jets-updates-to-ukraines-defense-strategy/

And for those of you say that this is costing the United States too much. Number one, check your math. With the exception of two Patri[ot] batteries, every single other thing that has been transferred from the United States at this point has been spare parts and decommissioned equipment that we were going to have to pay to dismantle. So in many ways, the Ukraine war has saved us a lot of money.

And second, if you think the money has been stolen, you're literally just making that up. Call your congressperson because they have every day a full list of every piece of equipment, how it was used, how it was transferred, and how much money to actually cost the United States. And anyone who tells you otherwise is lying to you. All right.

[Uberhaus]

Another forecaster, General Petraeus: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-may-suddenly-break-under-ukraine-counteroffensive-petraeus-2023-8

As Ukraine struggles to make substantial gains in its counteroffensive, General David Petraeus says that Russia's front line may yet falter under pressure.

The former top general and CIA director brought his experience in Iraq to the picture as he laid out why he believes Ukraine can still push through Russia's formidable defenses.

"I'm guardedly optimistic, with qualifications," he told CNN. Ukraine can potentially "crack the line in a couple of places," he said, adding that the fate of the battle will then depend on the Russian reaction.

I was going to propose a discussion on a comparison on the Ukrainian counter-offensive and operation Desert Storm, General Petraeus answers it succinctly though. 

Holding them back is a formidable network of minefields, trenches and anti-tank "dragon's teeth" that stretch the 600-mile length of the front line. Faced with this, even the US would struggle, Petraeus told CNN.
"The truth is, we could not have done this," he said. The only times the US has faced similar situations was in Iraq, he said.

But then the US had huge advantages in its air force — boasting total air superiority — and its vast numbers of personnel, heavy armor, and breaching devices.

Ukraine "has adapted very impressively" to the situation, he told CNN. To describe its tactic, he and Kagan cited Admiral Tony Radakin, the head of the British military, who called it "starve, stretch and strike."

"Ukraine is applying pressure on their opponent until something breaks, at which point they will commit their reserves and strike," Petraeus and Kagan wrote.