Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

I can't see Ukraine accepting a DMZ that includes chunks of its territory or any major pieces of its land still being part of Russia as long as it has any capability to keep fighting.

[GDS_Starfury]

or the truck was part of the cargo and got blown clear on a flat trajectory.

[Jarhead0331]

I can't see Ukraine accepting a DMZ that includes chunks of its territory or any major pieces of its land still being part of Russia as long as it has any capability to keep fighting.

Why not? Russia took Crimea in 2014 and they didn't do anything about it.

[Skoop]

^That's because they couldn't do anything about it and Obama didn't do much to help them do much about it.  2014 was a totally different situation compared to today.

[Sir Slash]

Definitely a Cease Fire is the only logical way to stop the blood-letting but I can't see either side accepting one at present because they think they can still somehow win. Very similar to the leadership in WWI nations. It'll take another year at least to realize there may not be a military solution to this war. And many more lives. 

[Gusington]

Ukraine has also vowed repeatedly that they will not stop until they have taken back their territory.

[GDS_Starfury]

Why not? Russia took Crimea in 2014 and they didn't do anything about it.

this isn't then.  and now its Ukraine's call as when to quit.

[Sir Slash]

Nice of you to offer Star but Trump has Melania so why would he want you?  Still, it's the thought that counts so...I call it progress.

[Tripoli]

Ukraine has also vowed repeatedly that they will not stop until they have taken back their territory.

The problem with the Korea analogy is that Russia has violated the various Minsk agreements and the Budapest Memorandum.  I don't see Ukraine as trusting Russia enough to have a cease-fire, absent security guarantees, such as membership in NATO with deployment of NATO forces into Ukraine.  This is a condition that I don't think either Russia or NATO will accept.  In contrast, the Korean cease fire has been guaranteed by the deployment of US ground forces, something that is unlikely to happen in the Ukraine.  So I don't see a cease fire.  Rather, I predict a grinding war of attrition, until one side suddenly breaks.

[Sir Slash]

Good points.

[GDS_Starfury]

Nice of you to offer Star but Trump has Melania so why would he want you?  Still, it's the thought that counts so...I call it progress.

wat 

[MengJiao]

Ukraine has also vowed repeatedly that they will not stop until they have taken back their territory.

The problem with the Korea analogy is that Russia has violated the various Minsk agreements and the Budapest Memorandum.  I don't see Ukraine as trusting Russia enough to have a cease-fire, absent security guarantees, such as membership in NATO with deployment of NATO forces into Ukraine.  This is a condition that I don't think either Russia or NATO will accept.  In contrast, the Korean cease fire has been guaranteed by the deployment of US ground forces, something that is unlikely to happen in the Ukraine.  So I don't see a cease fire.  Rather, I predict a grinding war of attrition, until one side suddenly breaks.

That's plausible.  The only possible other way out is suggested by the (now defunct) grain deal brokered by the UN in 2022.  I suspect both sides would be happy with a big DMZ covering the Black Sea and its contested coastlines, as would Turkey and Romania and Moldova and probably Belarus and Poland as well (even without coastlines, I suspect everybody around there would like to turn down the heat a bit).  This would work better after Putin is gone and people would like to sort of rehabilitate Russia and the UN ( which have both looked really bad lately in this context).  Still, war to exhaustion seems a lot more likely at this point, the one wild card still being Belarus as usual.  If something messy happens with Belarus, things could go sideways for the whole region pretty fast.

[Gusington]

^From your description, Meng, it sounds even more complicated now. A DMZ involving an ocean and 8-10 different countries? Ugh. 

[Sir Slash]

I was referring to your sig lines at the bottom of your post, the 4th line particularly Star.                                                                         Trip's point about the Peacekeepers for Korea are good ones because how many would it take to police a cease fire in this war? And who would be stupid enough to get between these two armies to perform it? Still, if both sides were convinced it would benefit themselves more than the other side, I could see a Third Party talk them into it. Would it last and who would cheat? Not much hope there.

[Gusington]

Is Russia fascist? The answer seems pretty obvious to me, but not to everyone. Great video: