Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

This is [darkly] fascinating "committing itself to the end of the old Soviet Union's concept of socialist republics, and embracing the future of restoring the pre-1917 borders of the Russian Empire."

So according to Putin, 1917-1991 was a series of horrible mistakes - except for crushing Germany?

It all went to hell when the Romanovs were murdered? I've seen it posted and discussed here for 18 months and still can't believe it. Especially since Putin was as much a USSR creation as you can get.

To the Russian Nationalists, the great mistake was the loss of Russian identity in favor of the idea of Soviet Socialism.  It was the concept that places like Ukraine, Belarus ect had individual national identities and were not part of the greater Russia as the Empire had held to. 

It's a neo-Fascist movement and has all the hallmarks.  It rejects Liberal Democracy as a failure, and rejects Socialism as the incorrect solution.  It harkens to the old days of National Imperial identity without embracing the trappings of monarchy.  It asks the nation to remember the good old days of the power, respect and huge national borders, and to replace the idea of worship of the monarchs or worship of the populace with the worship of the state and military.

It's not at all dissimilar from what happened in Germany and Italy.  Don't forget Mussolini started out a Marxist revolutionary and largely was made by them too, he just ended up rejecting their ideology for the same reason Putin now rejects the Soviet ideal.    Even Hitler did something similar with his alliance with Rohm and Strasser and brief adoption of some populist socialist planks until he purged them after the Night of the Long Knives.

They're all similar cycles repeating themselves with the same results.

[Groggy]

This is [darkly] fascinating "committing itself to the end of the old Soviet Union's concept of socialist republics, and embracing the future of restoring the pre-1917 borders of the Russian Empire."

So according to Putin, 1917-1991 was a series of horrible mistakes - except for crushing Germany?

It all went to hell when the Romanovs were murdered? I've seen it posted and discussed here for 18 months and still can't believe it. Especially since Putin was as much a USSR creation as you can get.

To the Russian Nationalists, the great mistake was the loss of Russian identity in favor of the idea of Soviet Socialism.  It was the concept that places like Ukraine, Belarus ect had individual national identities and were not part of the greater Russia as the Empire had held to. 

It's a neo-Fascist movement and has all the hallmarks.  It rejects Liberal Democracy as a failure, and rejects Socialism as the incorrect solution.  It harkens to the old days of National Imperial identity without embracing the trappings of monarchy.  It asks the nation to remember the good old days of the power, respect and huge national borders, and to replace the idea of worship of the monarchs or worship of the populace with the worship of the state and military.

It's not at all dissimilar from what happened in Germany and Italy.  Don't forget Mussolini started out a Marxist revolutionary and largely was made by them too, he just ended up rejecting their ideology for the same reason Putin now rejects the Soviet ideal.    Even Hitler did something similar with his alliance with Rohm and Strasser and brief adoption of some populist socialist planks until he purged them after the Night of the Long Knives.

They're all similar cycles repeating themselves with the same results.

This has Aleksandr Dugin written all over it. Dugin's book Foundations of Geopolitics is Putin's playbook.

[Gusington]

Forgive me...people are dying by the 1000s but I find the whole ideology of it so interesting. One of the benefits of my great grandparents being able to escape that part of the world.

Just a few days ago I posted a Warographics video discussing whether Russia was fascist. I personally am convinced that they absolutely are, but the Warographics video was more like 'they will be, soon...not quite there yet.'

[SirAndrewD]

Forgive me...people are dying by the 1000s but I find the whole ideology of it so interesting. One of the benefits of my great grandparents being able to escape that part of the world.

Just a few days ago I posted a Warographics video discussing whether Russia was fascist. I personally am convinced that they absolutely are, but the Warographics video was more like 'they will be, soon...not quite there yet.'

I agreed with some of the points on that video, disagreed with some. 

One particular point on which I did not agree was their assertion that Russian Nationalism has no ideological unifying goal.  I think that Putin's speech on the eve of the Invasion and the rhetoric we've seen from his cronies and the Russian media pretty well puts that to bed. 

I do understand a few other points.  It's enough I would say that the majority of those in power at this point have a fascist ideology but the nation itself is neither capable or far enough down the ideological road to be considered there.

It's like the often repeated idea that any Fascist state must have a mass mobilization for a unifying goal against an enemy.  That's true, and Russia hasn't done so, but the government is leading the nation down that path, continuing to justify NATO and those pesky "stateless cosmopolitans (ie Jews)" in London as the great enemy that will eventually need the entire force of the nation to defeat.

It's also vital to the argument that we view the 30's in hindsight and that each of the Fascist nations differed from each other greatly.  However, they all embraced the term and weren't afraid of it.  It had not become a pariah philosophy yet, and it had many admierers in the west. 

Nowadays any nation, no matter how down the path towards the ideology is, is going to disown the term and deny it if it's levied at them.  No state will fully embrace the name even if it embraces the forms. 

Had the same been said in the 30's we may be debating who was what ideology as Italy, Germany, Spain, Romania, Hungary ect had uniquely nationalistic takes and flavors.  Heck, we still kind of debate it to this day. 

And finally, it's important to understand WHY nations do what they do, so don't apologize about being interested.  This is one of the reasons when I taught in private school I made half my Government curriculum political science.  Understanding the reasons behind things, and more people having those understandings, are vital to avoiding the mistakes of the past. 

[Gusington]

All this said, the next major milestone in the story, to me, is what will happen to Belarus and Moldova in the next 2-3 years.

Depending on how battered the Russian military gets, the outlook for Belarus and Moldova is not good.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1708265773607620975

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1708420907033661492

[Sir Slash]

Well lets see Star. As I recall you told us all the Western Sanctions would bankrupt the Russian Economy back in the first days of the invasion, followed by Putin's cronies overthrowing him shortly after. Later it was after the Russian retreat from Kharkov you said the war was over, the Russians had no more troops to fight with.

When people pointed-out that Putin could always draft more, you told us they wouldn't fight, that they'd all flee out of country. Some of course did but most stayed and fought because they had to. Either that or involuntarily volunteer for Wagner. 

Just a couple of weeks back you posted the Russian economy was, again, collapsing finally. You've predicted Putin's dying, the Russian Army will, any day now, lay-down their arms and go home, the Russians will run out of arty ammo, their troops can't fight, can't shoot straight and are so dumb they blow themselves up routinely. So how can this bunch of Imperial Stormtroopers even still be an army? And how can there still be tens of thousands of men dying trying to defeat them?

Every new weapons system we've sent Ukraine was supposed to be the one that will finally win this war according to you. And they're still there. I'd say you have been very inaccurate in your predictions. But....you have that right to be. Because we all are allowed to speak our minds freely here.

I've come to know you well enough by now to know you are posting what you WANT to have happen not what you THINK will happen, and you're free to do so. But when others here post what they THINK will happen, not what they WANT to happen, and it disagrees with you, you don't have the right to criticize or mock people because of it. I don't come here to be talked-down to. That's what I got married for. Maybe YOU should read some more.

[SirAndrewD]

Interesting statistic on the impact of Armor in this war. 

Even though NATO armor platforms have had very low losses they have also had very low effective deployments. 

Russia is also failing to effectively deploy its most modern armored assets. 

The statistics put some reason to this.  Currently, on both sides tank losses have only been about 4% on Tank vs Tank conflict. 

96% of losses of tanks, combined for both forces, have been to infantry based weapons, artillery and mines. 

And this is interesting.  NATO and the Russians have been creating armored forces that are built for armor on armor conflict.  NATO especially has designed its tanks to go toe to toe with Russia's tanks and win.

The face of this conflict is denying both sides the ability to fight the war the way their platforms were designed to do.

[Gusington]

^Interesting, I'd like to see the number of tank on tank kills in other relatively modern conflicts.

One that could be comparable, in terms of opposing sides with similar equipment, is the Iran-Iraq War.

[GDS_Starfury]

Well lets see Star. As I recall you told us all the Western Sanctions would bankrupt the Russian Economy back in the first days of the invasion

and they have.

followed by Putin's cronies overthrowing him shortly after

I said it was possible and still is.

When people pointed-out that Putin could always draft more, you told us they wouldn't fight

and I've posted many videos of units refusing to fight.  the vast majority of these were conscripts.

. Later it was after the Russian retreat from Kharkov you said the war was over, the Russians had no more troops to fight with

I did not say that at all.  feel free to go find that post and quote it directly.

they'd all flee out of country.

the brain drain out of russia is a very real thing.  again, articles were posted about this and its been discussed with regards to russian demographics and them moving forward.

Just a couple of weeks back you posted the Russian economy was, again, collapsing finally.

you mean comments and or articles about the ruble being worth less then a penny?  again, find and quote the post.

You've predicted Putin's dying

posting articles commenting on his health isnt my prediction but I cant help but hope.  nor was I the only one bringing this up.

he Russian Army will, any day now, lay-down their arms and go home

really, once again go find the post and quote me or be more accurate in its context because thats exactly what happened last fall.

he Russians will run out of arty ammo,

they essentially have.  or do you think asking North Korea for shells is a sigh of functioning domestic production.  articles have been posted about this before but you don't seem to read them.  your ignorance isnt my fault.

their troops can't fight, can't shoot straight and are so dumb they blow themselves up routinely.

all of which are true.  did you miss the video of the vatnik throwing a drone out of his foxhole and then shooting it only for said drone to blow up in his face.  or all of the friendly fire episodes that happen.  just this last week russian air defense shot down another of their own Su-35s.

So how can this bunch of Imperial Stormtroopers even still be an army?

they mostly aren't which is why they've launched no real offensives of their own.  you really don't pay attention do you?

And how can there still be tens of thousands of men dying trying to defeat them?

oh I dunno, maybe its because its a war.

Every new weapons system we've sent Ukraine was supposed to be the one that will finally win this war according to you.

I've said they would be helpful and they have been and Ukraine will eventually win this war.

I'd say you have been very inaccurate in your predictions.

nope not really.  in fact I'm rather happy with the amount and quality of information I've been able to share here.  its been backed up by articles, videos and professionals commentarty.  is it always 100%? nope (ie putin dying) but it has been a lot more consistent then you claim its been.
one of us is actually researching these topics and reading papers by professionals in this field. 
just to pick a random name, have you even heard of Michael Kofman?
the other one is watching fox.
I've provided more then enough evidence to back up my statements. 
you?

so yes, you should read more. 

[GDS_Starfury]

The face of this conflict is denying both sides the ability to fight the war the way their platforms were designed to do.

both NATO and russia based their respective concepts on having an air force that would be, at the very least, helping the ground forces.  this obviously hasnt happened for russia in the Ukraine and Ukraine never had an air force to go toe to toe with the russians.  add in perpetual drone surveillance and massing large formations isnt as viable.

[SirAndrewD]

both NATO and russia based their respective concepts on having an air force that would be, at the very least, helping the ground forces.  this obviously hasnt happened for russia in the Ukraine and Ukraine never had an air force to go toe to toe with the russians.  add in perpetual drone surveillance and massing large formations isnt as viable.

Very true. This is a conflict that's been utterly devoid of traditional air power. 

However, while air power would diminish the influence of artillery, I do still feel both sides have underestimated the effectiveness of mines and man portable modern anti-tank missile systems.

[GDS_Starfury]

I think its the mines more then anything.  somewhere I was reading an article that had the comment that the current density of mine across the southern from is considered impassible by US Army standards.  for localized attacks the atgm can be suppressed by arty.  I have been impressed by western armors ability to take hits.
on that note, we're now fielding Trophy 

[GDS_Starfury]

the Russians will run out of arty ammo

https://twitter.com/i/status/1708429978600092106

Daffy Duck approved.