Russia's War Against Ukraine

[ArizonaTank]

in the last 2 weeks Ive seen exactly one video of a Leo taking hits.

So far, I think that Forbes has been a good source; up to this point they haven't been prone to click-baity headlines.

But sure, they could have it wrong. I also think they could have it right.

[GDS_Starfury]

anythings possible but russians like posting videos on that rare occasion when things go right for them.

[FarAway Sooner]

It's really hard to tell who's winning battles of attrition until suddenly somebody collapses somewhere.  All you can really conclude prior to that is that both sides are probably miserable.

But if the Ukes are losing so many Leopards, I hope they're able to recover a lot of them and eventually get them back into service.  Of course, when we only hear anecdotes, it's hard to know stories like that factor in. 

All of which gets me back to that "It's really hard to tell who's winning battles of attrition..." observation. 

Coverage of the Ukrainian war has dropped out of the news cycle.  I can't tell if that's because not much of dramatic import is happening, or because the Israel-Gaza conflict is just the new trendy war.

[al_infierno]

I can't tell if that's because not much of dramatic import is happening, or because the Israel-Gaza conflict is just the new trendy war.

[ArizonaTank]

anythings possible but russians like posting videos on that rare occasion when things go right for them.

The one thing the article does mention that seems to have the 'ring of truth,' is that the Russians are using drone swarms to attack vehicles.

They first try to immobilize, then use incremental attacks to slowly take apart the prey.

If true, it would be the logical next step on the drone tech tree.  The Russians have so far been behind the drone power-curve in this war, but their tech level does seem to be progressing.

[ArizonaTank]

oops double post

[GDS_Starfury]

the swarm idea isnt new.  if you watch a lot of these you'll start noticing 2 or 3 spotting drones and then 2 or 3 hits depending on the target.  then all that footage is edited together for release.
this was a Navy test 6 years ago with the drones being dropped from flare dispensers.

[JasonPratt]

This op-ed from The Hill is kind of interesting, as an illustration of how mind-gamey Russian politics are, using the reports of Putin's death last week for an example:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/reports-of-putin-s-death-might-not-be-greatly-exaggerated/ar-AA1j9zG9?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=56e4e3839ad244bcd6b0c221ef706c61&ei=28

Never heard of the author, but his book topics sound interesting, too.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as "Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires" and "Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective."

I'm not sure I agree that he has made his case about this being the start of a power-ploy by elites backing Solovey, but it's a bad sign for Putin that his regime has no real way to solve the problem of death-rumors being deployed against him.

For that matter, if it comes to elites using Solovey as a mouthpiece to spark  regime change, they could be using Professor Motyl, too....

[ArizonaTank]

This op-ed from The Hill is kind of interesting, as an illustration of how mind-gamey Russian politics are, using the reports of Putin's death last week for an example:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/reports-of-putin-s-death-might-not-be-greatly-exaggerated/ar-AA1j9zG9?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=56e4e3839ad244bcd6b0c221ef706c61&ei=28

Never heard of the author, but his book topics sound interesting, too.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as "Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires" and "Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective."

I'm not sure I agree that he has made his case about this being the start of a power-ploy by elites backing Solovey, but it's a bad sign for Putin that his regime has no real way to solve the problem of death-rumors being deployed against him.

For that matter, if it comes to elites using Solovey as a mouthpiece to spark  regime change, they could be using Professor Motyl, too....

Head spinning alright. Scary because somebody (Putin or some shadowy cabal) still has their finger(s) on the nuclear trigger. 

[JasonPratt]

And then things get more weird:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-s-doctors-freed-from-corpse-sitting-duty-as-russian-leader-s-rumored-death-declared-state-secret-report/ar-AA1j6RXE?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=bca79bcb5acf473a91a7fe5ddad4dd52&ei=37

[SirAndrewD]

I mean, not to stir the pot here, but...

A bit odd that Putin hasn't just dissuaded this with a public appearance.  He'd been making quite a few of them prior, but his last one was extremely weird with the giant rectangular swimming pool sized table of social distancing. 

And also a bit odd that in just the last few days Lukashenko and a few other backroom channels have been sending out peace talks feelers for the first time since the start of the war (which were more offers to accept surrender). 

I'm not saying the rumors are true, but boy it's making Putin look weak by the day that he's not just squashing them out of hand.

[JasonPratt]

From what I gathered, Putin has made appearances, sort of, since Oct 26th last week, which is why the conspiracy theory from Solovey is that a coup is now happening using one of Putin's doubles.

Akira Kurosawa is rolling over in his grave wishing he could update Kagemusha!

[SirAndrewD]

From what I gathered, Putin has made appearances, sort of, since Oct 26th last week, which is why the conspiracy theory from Solovey is that a coup is now happening using one of Putin's doubles.

Akira Kurosawa is rolling over in his grave wishing he could update Kagemusha!

By appearance I mean something no one can question.  Just come on TV in a public forum, get the cameras nice and zoomed in and do some ra ra propaganda talk about very current events.  Should be simple enough.

I honestly don't think he's dead, but it sure doesn't seem like he wants anyone up close and personal to him right now.

The peace talks thing is also really interesting.  The last time that back channel inquiries were made the answer from Russia was "We'd love to talk but Putin won't allow it". 

It's an interesting change, although it could be explained by other things leaking from the Russian MoD that the high command is now beginning to accept that Russia is no longer capable of large scale offensive operations and therefore has to accept the reality that it won't be able to seize all of its contested annexed territory.

[JasonPratt]

Or even keep its seized annexes at this rate.

I recall a month or so ago, a functionary in Russia was floating the idea that Russia did recognize Ukraine as a sovereign nation according to a legal something-or-other in the past, which included Crimea; the point being that it was on a ground that Russia could still legally accept. I posted it here on the thread at the time, but danged if I have the energy to go back looking for it!

If I recall the gist correctly, the idea was "we can recognize Crimea as Ukrainian if you don't get into NATO" or something; the implications were a little more detailed than that. Might have been a Stalinesque offer of "hey, we just wanna be friends and help you secure your territory for you as good comradely Slavic-language neighbors!" The argument (not really a proposal yet) was.... suggestively weird?

[SirAndrewD]

Or even keep its seized annexes at this rate.

I recall a month or so ago, a functionary in Russia was floating the idea that Russia did recognize Ukraine as a sovereign nation according to a legal something-or-other in the past, which included Crimea; the point being that it was on a ground that Russia could still legally accept. I posted it here on the thread at the time, but danged if I have the energy to go back looking for it!

If I recall the gist correctly, the idea was "we can recognize Crimea as Ukrainian if you don't get into NATO" or something; the implications were a little more detailed than that. Might have been a Stalinesque offer of "hey, we just wanna be friends and help you secure your territory for you as good comradely Slavic-language neighbors!" The argument (not really a proposal yet) was.... suggestively weird?

Russia recognized Ukraine as sovereign in the Budapest Memorandum, as long as Ukraine gave up its nuclear stockpile and agreed to a non-aggression pact with all the former Soviet Republics.  Crimea was part of that agreement. 

The issue at the time was that Crimea itself was not keen on joining Ukraine and did in the 90's try to separate with its own independence movement.  It was in fact from 1991-94 the autonomous and pro-Russian "Republic of Crimea" and there was considerable push and pull between Moscow and Kyiv about which nation it should belong to. 

The issue was decided with the Memorandum which ceded Crimea to Ukraine, without Crimea's agreement or consultation (and arguably against the wishes of 57% of the populace) in return for the security agreements in the memorandum.  Part of the deal was the Black Sea fleet got the rights to use the military docks in Sevastopol. 

Not sure how Russia could give Crimea back on a peace table at this point since they've displaced a lot of the Ukrainian speaking population and it could be very strongly argued that the majority of people in Crimea do not want to be returned. 

I'd imagine at this point the Russian peace offer is currently "Status quo post bellum", which wouldn't be a total victory for Russia but still would be a major one.