Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

The weirdest thing in the last dozen posts is the mention of Rutgers University-Newark...I got my Masters there 20 years ago while being held against my will in NJ. I would never suspect an international politico talking head to hail from there 

[GDS_Starfury]

Happy Halloween!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1719408676665217308

[GDS_Starfury]

this guy joined the air force

https://twitter.com/i/status/1719406567055884552

[GDS_Starfury]

russians just driving straight in 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1719306918815023448

[MengJiao]

very, it could have simply been one of his doubles.

If his double had a heart attack, Putin could vanish and still run things, right?

[FarAway Sooner]

Who are you guys fooling?  They've cloned him and there are multiple copies of Putin running the USSR.

He's just like one of those bad guys from The Blood Angels' WH40K series. 

[SirAndrewD]

Who are you guys fooling?  They've cloned him and there are multiple copies of Putin running the USSR.

He's just like one of those bad guys from The Blood Angels' WH40K series. 

Somehow Putin has returned!

      

[JasonPratt]

And that was after he fell down into the Zaporzh' reactor core! I guess no one is ever really gone...

[JasonPratt]

The psy-op or whatever it is, continues!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-s-death-is-being-celebrated-by-his-former-cronies-kremlin-source-says/ar-AA1jedP1?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=97bffa0158e64c078d82401834b62e44&ei=19

Peskov: the "General SVR" channel is an "absurd information canard"!

SVR channel: Peskov and other cronies are optimistic about Putler's death.

Me: I thought we had a popcorn munching smiley!?!

[GDS_Starfury]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

[Windigo]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

airpower.....

[FarAway Sooner]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

It's a provocative article.  I always hesitate to second-guess a general who's on the ground, when a reporter is picking which words to include and which words to omit. 

It also matches the standard "party line" that we've been hearing from the pro-Ukrainian-government media.  That obviously doesn't make it wrong.  He's closer to the front lines than most of us.  Of course, he is still a REMF.

As is so often the case, I think the author builds a straw man of an argument and then skillfully demolishes it.  The harder question might be, "We know that concentrating all our troops in one place for a traditional breaching attack leaves them vulnerable to drones and artillery with massive casualties.  Is there a way that, after we achieve some initial breakthroughs in fortified lines using small-unit tactics, we're then able to concentrate enough units to exploit and expand that gap without taking such massive casualties."

The emphasis on technology as being the savior in this article aligns nicely with the narratives we've heard from Western sources throughout the war.  It also aligns with the economic interests of the various participants of the military-industrial complex. 

I suspect that the more likely winning approach here is not some kind of technological silver bullet or invention, but rather the incremental adoption of tactics and doctrine that allow combatants to succeed in this static environment.  In the meantime, the human cost on both sides is likely to be horrific.

[FarAway Sooner]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

airpower.....

Airpower might be the hypothetical answer. 

We certainly know that the UAF have not been able to accomplish what NATO doctrine calls for in terms of suppression or destruction of air defenses.  But it's also unclear whether NATO air forces could ever accomplish that, much less whether Ukraine is capable of ever fielding sufficient air power to do that.

It's also unclear whether more drones, more artillery rounds and more cruise missiles might not be sufficient to paralyze enemy logistics and C&C for 100 miles behind the front line even without the ability to send manned planes over enemy air space.  Drones have made "air superiority" a more ambiguous concept than it ever was in the past.

[Windigo]

I agree, however the US/UK have experience in cracking formidable multi-layered air defense systems. And the Russians seem to be running out of S400's 

I am not sure what role the F16s will fill with the Ukraine, and I anticipate they too will be relegated to low risk operations, but they'll have options

[JasonPratt]

I feel 100% confident as an educated guess that NATO (and especially but not exclusively the US) would be able to attain air supremacy and maybe even blue-sky ops against Russia as they currently are. Or even against Russia as of Feb last year.

If we were talking "Flashpoint" game-era Sovs, I'd be a lot more doubtful though we'd give them a hard fight. But that's who we trained to beat, and Putler's Orcs aren't the Soviets. It's more like Rocky training to beat Drago and then instead fighting a street mugger more-than-half hopped up on meth and vodka when the time came.