Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024

[Jarhead0331]

Now THAT is what I call a lot of war profiteering. Yay!!!

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-aid-us-economy/

[GDS_Starfury]

so this happened

[GDS_Starfury]

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-aid-us-economy/

ok, I'm still good with giving out old stock weapons and replacing them with brand new models.

[ArizonaTank]

so this happened

They are just damned good...not invulnerable.

[GDS_Starfury]

they've supposedly been operating around Avdivika for about a month now, so only losing one so far isn't that bad.

[GDS_Starfury]

have any of you noticed how badly the russian air force is getting mauled this week?

[MengJiao]

have any of you noticed how badly the russian air force is getting mauled this week?

Supposedly they have been more aggressively supporting their ground troops.  Maybe this is their last hurrah
before trying to seriously negotiate for some kind of ceasefire so they can hold onto the territory they have
obliterated.  I was going to say "keep their gains", but causing NATO to expand and suffering massive loses etc. etc. suggests that sitting on some rubble is only a way of selling a potential asking for a ceasefire to their
internal audience as a victory of some kind.  That all would have been a good idea about two years ago, but negotiating now is kind of late.

[GDS_Starfury]

2fer! 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1762750227163840974

[Pete Dero]

Russia's Criteria for Launching a Nuclear Strike Just Dropped


Leaked classified documents describe conditions under which Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons, according to the Financial Times. The files from 2008 and 2014 reportedly show that Moscow would potentially deploy the devices—which are designed for limited battlefield use but could still be many times more powerful than those dropped on Japan at the end of WWII—when certain criteria are met.

They reportedly include conditions like a fifth of Russia's strategic ballistic missile submarines being destroyed, the loss of 30 percent of its nuclear-powered attack subs, three or more cruisers being taken out, or even the loss of three airfields. A simultaneous attack on Russia's main and reserve coastal command centers could also trigger a nuke strike, as could an enemy incursion into Russian territory. Russia could also use the bombs as a way of preventing the loss of battles or as a means of "stopping aggression."

Experts who reviewed the files told the FT they reveal a threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons that is significantly lower than the Kremlin has ever publicly acknowledged.


https://www.ft.com/content/f18e6e1f-5c3d-4554-aee5-50a730b306b7 (behind paywall)
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-criteria-for-launching-a-nuclear-strike-just-dropped-ft

[Windigo]

Their naval loses in the conflict have to be pretty close to the line now....

[Gusington]

 

[Windigo]

I think that policy paper was deliberately leaked to try and influence western European leaders. Putin doesn't have a death wish so he won't do anything of the sort.

[GDS_Starfury]

thats my take as well.

[MengJiao]

I think that policy paper was deliberately leaked to try and influence western European leaders. Putin doesn't have a death wish so he won't do anything of the sort.

Seems plausible.  I think the Russians have now started working on the problem of how to look good while giving up.  Sure, they can go on pounding on Ukraine for the next 200 years, but that really doesn't seem to be doing much good.  What's going on right now?  Iran isn't helping.  China isn't helping.  The Houthi thing is curiously unconvincing and so maybe the Russians are trying to make that look more menacing by pulling up the cables under the Red Sea and saying the Houthi did it.  And of course something about nukes, though I think even the Houthi are more threatening at the moment than Russia's thing about the nukes -- hence the cable pulling under the Red Sea to imply they have strings to pull all over the world so you'd better let them have an Oblast or two or else things could get serious.