Russia's War Against Ukraine

[ArizonaTank]

It looks like shit is about to get real

It is starting to look very bad... US Gov is telling US citizens to leave in the next 24 hours; they rarely are so specific.

PBS is reporting that US Gov officials believe Putin has made the decision to pull the trigger and informed the Russian military.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-to-invade-ukraine-next-week-according-to-u-s-officials

Putin and Biden are supposed to talk tomorrow...if it's all just a big game of chicken...time is now to blink.

Interestingly, apparently a retired Russian general posts on a professional Russian military officer forum that it is time for "Putin to step down."  He apparently posted that invading Ukraine "will forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies." Of course hard to tell if this story is accurate, is some sort of military deception (by somebody), or even means very much. After all, a random post by a random retired US general wouldn't really mean alot here. But it does make me wonder if one way this ends is when a Russian general gets on RT to announce that Putin has suddenly decided to retire to "spend more time with his family" (isn't that what kind of happened to Gorbachev?)...but probably not.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-crisis-putin-military-opposition.html

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/

I am an old cold warrior as well. Right now, I'm chilled to the bone.

[Gusington]

Looking at different sources like Reuters, AP, The Atlantic, The Economist and it does look like the consensus is some kind of Russian military incursion into Ukraine will happen in the next day or two, as Russia continues to add troops and equipment all around the border with Ukraine.

US National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan says that air and missile bombardment could start in hours, as the opening phase.

NYTimes reported this morning that estimated civilian casualties from a Russian attempt to seize Kiev would be 50,000 at least.

This is all hard to believe.

[Con]

Last couple of months I have focused on WitE2
This week re read red storm rising. Forgot how great a book it is.
Tonight fired up CMANO for the first time in months.
I can feel it going down
Hope the Ukrainians can live by the motto of "we fuck shit up" cause I do feel that the storm is going to break soon.

[JasonPratt]

Okay, first, going back a bit: the Russians have cared A LOT about logistics since before Barbarossa. They were at the top of their game with almost 20 years of logistic prep across all spheres of activity. During the first half of 1941 they accomplished the largest logistic transfer in human history, and then did it again but even moreso roughly two weeks before the Nazis invaded. The only problem was that they were cripplingly overspecialized in how they were setting up and applying their logistic preparations: namely for rolling westward to the Atlantic. Not for defense -- Stalin literally blew up the Soviet defensive logistic infrastructure and support.

Now, I'd be very curious to know whether the reports of a lack of backfield logistic preparation at the border have changed. It's no small matter to have roughly 150K troops of every land and air description demonstrating constantly at the border; but it's a whole other matter to support them in an invasion. Are the reserves mobilizing for example? Those two million in reserve would be a dead-sure signal if they started being called up, that Putin intended on taking and holding substantial amounts of ground or even doing mil-ops for more than, let's say, two weeks. (I honestly haven't heard yet one way or another, what the status there is.)

[JasonPratt]

Second -- those 3000 American troops that just arrived in Ukraine are, so far as I can tell, all from the 82nd Airborne Division. (Not sure about the first 1500ish.)

I can't imagine what purpose they're going to serve in this situation other than to be trigger targets, so to speak, for escalation, or (more optimistically) some scattered salt-and-pepper elite seasoning to stiffen Ukrainian defense efforts. Or they're a token show of answering requests for any kind of help because they're nearby (although I gathered that they were deployed from Bragg??)

Maybe things have changed a lot during my lifetime, and no doubt this is a great place to learn otherwise  8) -- but Airborne Divisions (per se) are not designed primarily for defense. You only use them that way as a last resort, not as a first preliminary response. You get a decent quality dirt-level merely airmobile rifle division to come in and do defense. (Or an airmobile rifle corps.)

Airborne Divs are supposed to invade places, not defend: drop parachute assaults behind enemy lines to screw with their CCC and, perhaps more importantly, capture airfields for the rest of the division to start landing transports to secure the area better around the field so that more punchy airmobile divisions can land to take over defensive duties of holding the ground that was taken. And all this is predicated on the requirement that normal divisions and corps are punching their way into the enemy to link up with the AirDiv (bringing their logistic tails with them, without which no AirDiv is going to survive long.)

So... what the actual what?! Are these guys supposed to spread out as "advisors" to Ukraine partisans, like a large-scale Green Beret op?  ??? Supposedly no American troop is going there to be in combat, which sounds suuuuuuper suspicious if the LEGENDARY 82ND AIRBORNE is sending a brigade more-or-less. (I don't know the org details of who got sent from the 83rd, yet.)

[Uberhaus]

Second -- those 3000 American troops that just arrived in Ukraine are, so far as I can tell, all from the 82nd Airborne Division. (Not sure about the first 1500ish.)

I think you mean American troops in Poland.

[Uberhaus]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60234377

Ukraine tensions: US boosts troops in Europe
Published2 February

US President Joe Biden is to send extra troops to Europe this week amid continuing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Pentagon says.

Some 2,000 troops will be sent from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Poland and Germany, and a further 1,000 already in Germany will go to Romania.

[Rekim]

Last couple of months I have focused on WitE2
This week re read red storm rising. Forgot how great a book it is.
Tonight fired up CMANO for the first time in months.
I can feel it going down
Hope the Ukrainians can live by the motto of "we fuck shit up" cause I do feel that the storm is going to break soon.

The CMANO Live scenario Don of a New Era is an reasonable representation for scratching that itch.

I re-read Red Storm recently too. Amazing how well it held up over time.

[Sir Slash]

There are confirmed reports that there are now about 300 U.S. troops in Ukraine including Special Forces. They are officially there to train and advise the Uks, can we call them that? But the administration isn't saying more than that. I still think it's more likely Vlad's just selling, 'Wolf Tickets' as the old folks used to say, bluffing in other words. The phone call tomorrow between Putin and Biden will tell if Joe caves and gives away the security of a free nation or stands firm as he has done so far. For once, I'm rooting for him.

[Gusington]

NYTimes reporting that Putin may have decided that this coming Wednesday will be the beginning of Russian operations into Ukraine.

[al_infierno]

Not to make light of the situation, but I wish there was a Ukraine mod for Armored Brigade.   :-\

[Pete Dero]

Should I start watching Threads or The Day After again ?

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090163/
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085404/

What will this Russian Idiot do when he attacks and things don't go as he expected ?
What if NATO planes over the Baltic states or Poland are hit by a stray missile ?

I don't want to sound alarmist but I really don't feel good about this.

[GDS_Starfury]

forget CMANO and Red Storm Rising, Im firing up Fallout!  :arr:

[Dammit Carl!]

I am eyeballing the Twilight 2000 stuff (1st edition) at Far Future Enterprise's site pretty hard right now.

(or the GURPS Traveller CDs, one of the two)

Thanks, Putin.

[Pete Dero]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/ukraine-russia-putin-biden-belarus/

The U.S. State Department began evacuating staffers from the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv Saturday.

The British defense minister said Saturday that U.K. military trainers in Ukraine would leave over the weekend. "There will be no British troops in Ukraine if there is any conflict with Russia," James Heappey told Sky News.