Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

sorry to break it to you but we're not trying to get into a shooting match with russia at the moment.
those troops are there as political place holders.

[Uberhaus]

US troops are in Rzeszow, SE Poland.  This area borders Ukraine not Russia. Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave, which was the German Tilsit, is in between Poland and Lithuania far to the north on the Baltic. The Russians reinforced it last December according to Reuters.  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-military-kaliningrad-idUKKBN28H19A&ved=2ahUKEwibjLvN1fv1AhXwlWoFHTgeBacQFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3-398pKCR2d8gUUg1-CJdD  I don't know of reinforcement in the area by NATO.  I think we would be hearing about large build ups in Belorus to seize a land bridge to Kaliningrad through Poland and Baltic states, NATO countries. 
This brings us back to Ukraine.  Unfortunately, Ukraine cannot be a NATO country due to the conflict in its borders and the opposition of Orban of Hungary. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/hungary-blocks-ukraine-from-nato-cyber-defense-center.html&ved=2ahUKEwjRhPb32fv1AhUnk4kEHfn5DQIQFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2tv5auHZLOKqEqhIe8oG5y

That may be the case now, but if Russia is not bogged down in Ukraine, we will see a return to belligerence against the Baltic states and possibly Poland and Romania.  Especially if major NATO allies balk

[Uberhaus]

Derp, Russia reinforced Kaliningrad in December 2020.  Who wants to repeat 2021 with me?

[GDS_Starfury]

I just dont see putin wanting to actually drag NATO into a shooting war.
he doesnt have the 1987 soviet military and he knows it. 
even without US armor in the region every country has some version of leo2s.  I wont even get started on the air force disparity.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/12/15/ukraines-tanks-could-be-better-than-russias-it-might-not-matter/?sh=467712e7571b

[GDS_Starfury]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589

[GDS_Starfury]

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine

[CptHowdy]

No one will be helping Ukraine especially NATO. Europe has a reliance on Russian gas and will not want to be cutoff if they interfere(Germany). Once China, North Korea, Iran see how the world does nothing to stop Russia then expect them to make their own moves.

[Pete Dero]

No one will be helping Ukraine especially NATO. Europe has a reliance on Russian gas and will not want to be cutoff if they interfere(Germany). Once China, North Korea, Iran see how the world does nothing to stop Russia then expect them to make their own moves.

But Russia also needs the money from selling that gas.  It looks like Germany received the guarantee they can have access to gas by ship (Ukraine crisis: Germany and US 'absolutely united' on Russia sanctions, Scholz says / https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/06/german-leader-s-stance-on-russia-looms-over-first-visit-to-us)

Some relevant data :

The EU's GDP is €13 trillion while Russia's is only €1.39 trillion. 
The EU is Russia's first trading partner while Russia is the EU's fifth trading partner.  In 2020, trade exchange reached €174.3 billion. For Russia, this represents over 37% of its total trade. For the EU, it represents 4.8% of the overall extra-EU trade.

[CptHowdy]

No one will be helping Ukraine especially NATO. Europe has a reliance on Russian gas and will not want to be cutoff if they interfere(Germany). Once China, North Korea, Iran see how the world does nothing to stop Russia then expect them to make their own moves.

But Russia also needs the money from selling that gas.  It looks like Germany received the guarantee they can have access to gas by ship (Ukraine crisis: Germany and US 'absolutely united' on Russia sanctions, Scholz says / https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/06/german-leader-s-stance-on-russia-looms-over-first-visit-to-us)

Some relevant data :

The EU's GDP is €13 trillion while Russia's is only €1.39 trillion. 
The EU is Russia's first trading partner while Russia is the EU's fifth trading partner.  In 2020, trade exchange reached €174.3 billion. For Russia, this represents over 37% of its total trade. For the EU, it represents 4.8% of the overall extra-EU trade.

if putin feared sanctions there would be no threat to the ukraine. he's got money banked up. he can hold out longer than europe can go without gas and since the current US administration killed the Israeli sponsored pipeline there isnt any relief in sight.

[GDS_Starfury]

your comments are not completely true nor are they the whole story.
but if you want to stick to fox news soundbites then you do you.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-693866

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-greece-eastmed-gas-pipeline-ditched

[Jarhead0331]

Thus far, this thread had not become political. Please keep it that way and be sure to keep the focus on strategic and tactical issues of the potential armed conflict.

Thanks.

[CptHowdy]

your comments are not completely true nor are they the whole story.
but if you want to stick to fox news soundbites then you do you.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-693866

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-greece-eastmed-gas-pipeline-ditched

nothing untrue whatsoever. the current admin pulled its support. i never stated any reasons(costs) or offered any opinion(appeasing Turkey) as to why they did. As of right now there are no options for europe except russian gas. the articles you link talk about connecting electricity grids but no timelines are given. Until there is an alternative then russia can and will do whatever it wants in the region.

[CptHowdy]

Thus far, this thread had not become political. Please keep it that way and be sure to keep the focus on strategic and tactical issues of the potential armed conflict.

Thanks.

no tactical issues for Russia whatsoever. they can roll up Kiev in hours not days. grand strategy wise Russia will keep its naval forces docked in syria and off the coast of israel. Further emboldened by the russian presence Iran will continue using its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Palestine to attack Israel. Erdogan isnt getting younger and may look to cement his place in history. He is going to want to hitch his wagon up to the strongest force in the region and that is currently Russia.

[ArizonaTank]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/12/15/ukraines-tanks-could-be-better-than-russias-it-might-not-matter/?sh=467712e7571b

Interesting to see this subject coming in an article from Forbes.

As the article notes in passing, the quality of the tanks probably does not matter much; the Russians might just spend the time they need to establish air supremacy and complete a full air bombardment (days or even weeks). By example, Operation Desert Storm coalition forces spent about a month plastering Iraq before the ground forces moved in. Likewise, during an initial Russian air bombardment, anything that moves on the Ukrainian steppe will be splattered in massive air-to-ground attacks. By the time the Russian armor formations move in, most of those wonderful T-64 upgrades will have been made into scrap by AGMs and become coffins for their unfortunate crews.

But the Russians might want to try the fast lane and go for a blitz (they might not want a lengthy air campaign because it might harden European opinion against them). A smash and grab just to take Kyiv and Kharkiv for example. In that case, a lightning strike might not give the Russian air force time to clear out those pesky T-64 upgrades before the Russian tanks get there. Then, there might very well be some armor on armor action.