Russia's War Against Ukraine

[W8taminute]

Thus far, this thread had not become political. Please keep it that way and be sure to keep the focus on strategic and tactical issues of the potential armed conflict.

Thanks.

no tactical issues for Russia whatsoever. they can roll up Kiev in hours not days. grand strategy wise Russia will keep its naval forces docked in syria and off the coast of israel. Further emboldened by the russian presence Iran will continue using its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Palestine to attack Israel. Erdogan isnt getting younger and may look to cement his place in history. He is going to want to hitch his wagon up to the strongest force in the region and that is currently Russia.

Yes.

Another possibility is that while the world is worried over Ukraine, Israel launches a pre-emptive attack against it's immediate threats or against Iran itself.  This considering their time is running out for Iran to build a bomb. (which I think they already have)

[W8taminute]

sorry to break it to you but we're not trying to get into a shooting match with russia at the moment.
those troops are there as political place holders.

Absolutely agree.

[W8taminute]

your comments are not completely true nor are they the whole story.
but if you want to stick to fox news soundbites then you do you.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-693866

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-greece-eastmed-gas-pipeline-ditched

Wow!  Just wow.  I didn't realize the US did this.  100% pure evil.  I'm sorry I'm american and proud of my country and all but this behaviour is an absolute no no. 

It is written, those that bless you [Israel] so too will I bless.  You don't get blessed if you don't bless Israel. 

[ArizonaTank]

A Russian attack on Ukraine would be an absolute tragedy. So a discussion of gaming is in the bigger scheme, less than trivial. 

But still, I can't help but wonder how a very heavy sanctions regime against Russia would affect the gaming world as it is today.

I think the smaller Russian devs who publish on Steam would probably find it difficult, if not impossible to be paid. However, some of the larger devs and publishing houses may have diversified enough internationally to weather what comes.

For example, Eagle Dynamics (DCS), started in Russia, but is run out of Switzerland now. But if the bulk of operations are still in Russia, it might be difficult to transfer funds to where its operations are and pay the devs. I am guessing that Eagle would be OK with short term sanctions...but longer term sanctions might cause them real difficulty.

Not sure about IC (IL-2 Sturmovik), it seems to be still out of Russia. Also, Gaijin Entertainment (War Thunder). Gaijin used to be just out of Russia (I believe), but now seems to be headquartered out of Russia and Hungary. 

Then there is Wargaming.net (World of Tanks) out of Belarus (headquartered in Cyprus), who might be collateral damage because of Belarus' close tie-in to Russia in this crisis. 

If Russia does invade Ukraine, what happens to these companies would be a case study for how, or even if, sanctions have effect on internet based companies. Maybe these companies go all in for cypto (thus getting around sanctions)...throwing all of the traditional models out the window. It might be as simple as turning World of Warships doubloons into a crypto-currency...;)

[Jarhead0331]

A Russian attack on Ukraine would be an absolute tragedy. So a discussion of gaming is in the bigger scheme, less than trivial. 

But still, I can't help but wonder how a very heavy sanctions regime against Russia would affect the gaming world as it is today.

I think the smaller Russian devs who publish on Steam would probably find it difficult, if not impossible to be paid. However, some of the larger devs and publishing houses may have diversified enough internationally to weather what comes.

For example, Eagle Dynamics (DCS), started in Russia, but is run out of Switzerland now. But if the bulk of operations are still in Russia, it might be difficult to transfer funds to where its operations are and pay the devs. I am guessing that Eagle would be OK with short term sanctions...but longer term sanctions might cause them real difficulty.

Not sure about IC (IL-2 Sturmovik), it seems to be still out of Russia. Also, Gaijin Entertainment (War Thunder). Gaijin used to be just out of Russia (I believe), but now seems to be headquartered out of Russia and Hungary. 

Then there is Wargaming.net (World of Tanks) out of Belarus (headquartered in Cyprus), who might be collateral damage because of Belarus' close tie-in to Russia in this crisis. 

If Russia does invade Ukraine, what happens to these companies would be a case study for how, or even if, sanctions have effect on internet based companies. Maybe these companies go all in for cypto (thus getting around sanctions)...throwing all of the traditional models out the window. It might be as simple as turning World of Warships doubloons into a crypto-currency...;)

If a conflict delays the release of DCS AH-64D, I will endorse immediate full-scale US intervention.

[GDS_Starfury]

all of wargamings money is run through and kept in Cyprus not Belarus as far as I know.
threads about this very topic keep being posted and deleted on their forums.

[z1812]

Apparently Zelensky has some doubts about U.S. intelligence.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-airlines-stopping-redirecting-flights-to-ukraine-as-crisis-brews/

[Sir Slash]

Doubts about American Intelligence? The professionals who were able to find Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq when no one else on earth could? Or has since.  ::) I'm wondering if Biden or people in his administration isn't sounding alarm bells trying to scare Zelensky into giving in to Putin's demands in order to avoid a conflict. Such a move would allow the U.S. to duck any responsibility for a Putin win here.

[GDS_Starfury]

or hes using it as an excuse to regalvanize NATO into something more useful.
I think its a great thing that NATO is being tested right now.

[GDS_Starfury]

 :DD

https://defence-blog.com/over-a-dozen-russian-tanks-stuck-in-the-mud-during-military-exercise/?fbclid=IwAR3c1fYldzjbBtLy2_x7lJzFBcTAeBW9cONK2VUUyEScoNrKupCxTD44nLI

[Skoop]

If we give the Ukrainians enough javelins, they may embarrass the russians ala Finns in the 1940 winter war.  Those Ukrainians are some tough mofos.   

[Uberhaus]

The countries pushing the Ukrainians to hold to the Minsk accords are France and Germany. From January 31, this year:  https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-russia-france-germany-europe-d9a2ed365b58d35274bf0c3c18427e81  Ukraine has no desire to do so.  In the article, Danilov, the Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council states: 

"The fulfillment of the Minsk agreement means the country's destruction," Danilov said. "When they were signed under the Russian gun barrel — and the German and the French watched — it was already clear for all rational people that it's impossible to implement those documents."

At grogheads we have a grasp of Russian's desire for a buffer zone around its nation after losing nearly thirty million people in the Second World War.  However, NATO doesn't threaten the Russian people.  The movement of old Warsaw Pact states, Soviet states including failed attempts in Belorus towards the West, towards democracy, threaten autocrats especially Putin and his kleptocracy.  This is succinctly stated in the article that Toonces posted from the Atlantic: 

"I read this article on The Atlantic today and thought it was a pretty good synopsis of the "why" behind the Ukraine standoff. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465/ "

Putin is getting older, he turns seventy this year.  He lives a healthy lifestyle, but he will surely be thinking about his legacy.  Will he want to be remembered as leading a kleptocracy that exploited the Russian people or fulfilling his ambition of rebuilding the Soviet/Russian empire?  The only check on his power is that he maintain his autocracy. 

The forces and threats on Ukraine's borders are very real.  There are satellite images, videos of forces in transit, that the Russians aren't denying the presence of but are saying are engaging in maneuvres.  The West is in turmoil with problems from serious political division, to supply problems, to the pandemic.  This is an advantage of Putin to exploit while he states that the US is wagging the dog.  From everyone's favourite RT:  https://www.rt.com/russia/548537-us-uk-want-showdown/  Just remember if your computer blows up, it isn't Russia's fault; it's mine alone.

If you speak to a Ukrainian, they are angry that they gave up their nuclear weapons in return for the promise of territorial integrity and rightly so.

[Gusington]

Now it's a party:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-troops-arrive-reinforce-baltics-amid-tensions-over-ukraine-2022-02-14/

[Uberhaus]

The Budapest Memorandum, what Ukraine "gained" for giving up its nuclear weapons. From Radio Free Europe in 2014. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-explainer-budapest-memorandum/25280502.html
Apparently, it is a diplomatic document not a treaty.  Too bad Metternich wasn't around at the time.

[Jarhead0331]

I've been tracking this RC-135V over the Black Sea for awhile.



Some interesting military traffic in the region, particularly in Czechia, where I've spotted SAAB 39 Gripens, KC-135s, Learjets, Black Hawks, Chinooks and all kinds of different fixed-wing transports. I've seen German, British and American transports flying in and out of airfields near Kyiv.