Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

'someone'

[W8taminute]

'shipments'


Anyone see that article about a US Blackhawk landing near the Ukranian border and picking up someone?

https://www.rt.com/russia/549490-blackhawk-ukraine-poland-border/

[Pete Dero]

Probably Bermuda shorts  ;).

Some EU airlines don't fly to Ukraine any more so these might be alternatives for getting people out of the country.
Weapons are flown in to the country in the open in an attempt to deter Russia by show of force.

[W8taminute]

Interesting breaking news video regarding Russian moves in Syria.  Some of you might want to ignore the last two minutes or so of the video but that shouldn't detract from the news story.  This guy is a good source of news. 

[Pete Dero]

^ other sources, same news.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-sends-hypersonic-armed-fighter-jets-syria-naval-drills-report-2022-02-15/

MOSCOW, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Russia has deployed MiG-31K fighter jets with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and long-range Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers to its air base in Syria for naval exercises, Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, citing the defence ministry.

The aircraft dispatched to Russia's Hmeimim air base will take part in exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, part of a surge of Russian military activity amid a standoff with the West over Ukraine and security in Europe.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-sends-warplanes-syria-huge-naval-drills-med-82907105

[Uberhaus]

Lufthansa hasn't suspended flights yet.  The US (and Canada) aren't disguising their arms shipments and Brazil's (another major arms manufacturer) Bolsonaro is close with Putin.
The wealthy may be wintering in Bermuda but the country is well known for its offshore financial sector.  If a speculation about assets is correct and the shippers have close Russian contacts, it can be taken as a very negative sign.  Not everything can be transferred by email.
With Jarhead I am assuming his obligations make it neccessary to pose leading posts.

[Pete Dero]

Lufthansa hasn't suspended flights yet. 

KLM did recently and British Airways did a few years ago.  Lufthansa is considering it but hasn't acted yet.

With Jarhead I am assuming his obligations make it neccessary to pose leading posts.

I don't get what this means.

Having no need for it myself, I didn't think about offshore financial activities.  Are you implying Ukraine is getting money out of the country ?

[ArizonaTank]

This Ukraine situation is going to get me into hot water!!!

I have been clicking on "Ukraine" stories so much in the past week that I'm starting to see links for "Beautiful Ukrainian Ladies" in my news feeds.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/entertainment/beautiful-ladies-of-ukraine--new-profiles-for-may-2021--your-future-wife-is-waiting-for-you/vi-XXXXXXX?ocid=windirect#XJftYDy2b7s_yt

Once my wife sees those...I will be in the doghouse for weeks...

[Pete Dero]

^ I must have clicked more on Russia stories because I'm getting links to Russian porn stars ...



This could be a game changer : the weather is changing.



Night & day above freezing and rain is changing frozen ground in to mud.

[Con]

So assuming Putin DOES NOT invade
What is the outcome - is he better off/worse off
Did he achieve some other strategic goal and or increase his power or wealth?
Is he putting it off for another season?
Con

[Uberhaus]

Lufthansa hasn't suspended flights yet. 

KLM did recently and British Airways did a few years ago.  Lufthansa is considering it but hasn't acted yet.

With Jarhead I am assuming his obligations make it neccessary to pose leading posts.

I don't get what this means.

Having no need for it myself, I didn't think about offshore financial activities.  Are you implying Ukraine is getting money out of the country ?

A supposition that people are moving their riches, if it needs to form a gov' t in exile, yes the Ukraine gov't too.  If someone with close ties to the Russian elite is doing so that would be indicative of invasion.   

[ArizonaTank]

So assuming Putin DOES NOT invade
What is the outcome - is he better off/worse off
Did he achieve some other strategic goal and or increase his power or wealth?
Is he putting it off for another season?
Con

Basically he would get a siege. Hoping that over time, the Ukrainian economy, morale and resolve weaken. Perhaps the Ukrainian Government falls, to be replaced by a pro-Russian faction.

This is kind of what the Communist block tried in Korea on the 38th parallel after the Korean War. But because of US/UN protection, it did not work. In the short term, the constant war footing was very hard on South Korea. But in the longer term, the near war footing became normalized. In fact, that situation continues to this day, and South Korea has thrived. The big difference with the Ukraine of course is that unlike in Korea, the US / UN would not be providing any direct protection.   

[Pete Dero]

Despite Moscow's announcement that some of its troops are now returning to their bases, information released by Russia's Defense Ministry clarified that Russian units being withdrawn from Crimea are merely going back to their bases located near the Ukrainian border.

State media outlet Izvestia reported that the 3rd and 150th motor rifle divisions are based in Boguchar and Valuyki, located in the immediate vicinity of the border with Ukraine.  Only the 42nd division is returning back to Chechnya.


@ Con : Putin might get the opposite of his desires : more NATO power in Europe.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-says-russia-still-adding-troops-ukraine-build-up-2022-02-16/

NATO told its military commanders on Wednesday to draw up plans for new combat units in central and southeastern Europe, as it accused Russia of sending more troops to areas near Ukraine instead of withdrawing its forces.
The combat units, or 'battlegroups', could be set up in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia, diplomats said, in what would be the biggest shift in NATO's military posture since it moved troops to the Baltics and Poland following Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

Also, most EU nations now can convince their population to increase military budgets.   I have a feeling NATO is more united than before this crisis, another thing Putin didn't count on.
If things stand like they are today it is my opinion he is the losing party and it will be difficult for state media to to put a positive spin on this.

[Gusington]

So as of today, if Putin gets the idea in his head that he will be seen as a loser if he doesn't invade...does he then give the order to invade?

[ArizonaTank]

Also, most EU nations now can convince their population to increase military budgets.   I have a feeling NATO is more united than before this crisis, another thing Putin didn't count on.
If things stand like they are today it is my opinion he is the losing party and it will be difficult for state media to to put a positive spin on this.

I am wondering if Sweden and Finland are going to start looking hard at joining NATO.