Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Pete Dero]

From CNN's Tim Lister and Olga Voitovych in Kyiv

Ukraine and US say vehicle explosion in separatist-controlled city was staged

Ukrainian and US officials said a vehicle explosion in a Russian-backed separatist stronghold was a staged attack designed to stoke tensions in eastern Ukraine.

Video from the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine showed a fire in a parking lot and badly damaged military vehicle, close to the headquarters of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) – one of the areas of the country controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

An official channel of the DPR said that "Around 19:00, a car was blown up in the parking lot near the Government House building. The blast wave was heard by the whole city. The Ministry of Emergency Situations went to the place of the explosion."

Images and video showed emergency services at the scene and a badly damaged vehicle identified by CNN as a Russian-made jeep. There's no way to verify what caused the damage to the vehicle or the fire.

"We think that this is a staging and a provocation," Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to the Ukrainian Interior Minister, told CNN on WhatsApp. A US State Department spokesperson described it as a "false flag operation" and said incidents like the vehicle explosion and calls from separatist leaders to evacuate because of alleged Ukrainian aggression represented "further attempts to obscure through lies and disinformation that Russia is the aggressor in this conflict."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/separatists-eastern-ukraine-say-car-blown-up-near-rebel-hq-tass-2022-02-18/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/18/russia-ukraine-news-crisis-latest-putin-biden-kyiv-russian-invasion-threat-troops-border-live-updates

[SirAndrewD]

I think it's appropriate to share what Wikipedia has as a representative image of a "Soldier of the Special Forces of Belarus".

[Con]

Looks like he is firing blanks

[GDS_Starfury]

surprised he isnt flipping off a wall while throwing a hatchet.  ::)

[Dammit Carl!]

Their soldier presentations where they do dumb shit like that for the public is fun to watch.

[GDS_Starfury]

for a good laugh theres a russian tank competition show. 
ah, Tank Biathlon.  the commentator is a rare one.

[al_infierno]

You can tell it's photoshopped because somebody removed the hard liquor from the picture.   :-"

[Uberhaus]

The Belarus military doesn't have the combat experience of the Russians and the Ukranians but they have proven that they can beat down a civilian uprising.  Even if they're used for canon fodder or whatever, Russian units will be able to do something else.  Also, Russian units in Moldava though tied down against the small Moldovan army, might demonstrate on the border with Ukraine or make themselves a nuisance.

The EU are taking Belarus participation seriously.  https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60428211/page/2
"A senior European Union official has said that the bloc is considering new sanctions against Belarus if it takes part in any Russian military invasion of Ukraine, a senior EU official told Reuters.

Sanctions on Belarus were imposed after President Alexander Lukashenko crushed protests following elections in 2020, and have been tightened since."

I watched Lt. Col. (ret.) Vindman on CNN with the US ambassador to Ukraine.  While the ambassador said the usual diplomatic nicities, Col Vindman stated that his contacts tell him that the Ukranian President has not prepared the Ukranian people and more importantly allowed the military to prepare (field work, bridge demolitions).  He said he understood the need for calm and to prevent the fleeing of investment.  He doesn't think that Zelenskyy will last more than a few weeks and will be replaced by a pro-Russian.  Then it will be a whole different world, he finished.  Unfortunately, the video isn't posted anywhere that I can find. 

For good news, the US State Dep't has approved the sale of $6 billion arm sale including 250 M1A2s sepV3 to Poland.  I can't quite predict whether Poland will attack Russia or Germany first when they get them.  Now that's a funny joke.

[z1812]

Mod edit: c'mon Z, you know better than that.

[GDS_Starfury]

I'll leave it at this.
dont wander into politics and dont stray into it with that asshat racist moron.

[JasonPratt]

Well, while I haven't heard any dirt-level information on the backfield logistics being buffed up to invasion support levels on the Russian side, I did hear two more things today regarding border developments that do not bode well.

1.) Russian hospital groups are being moved up to the border. That could still be considered maneuvers, technically, but they haven't done hospital combat maneuvers during all their training up to now (so I heard). And I know full well that the Russians know full well that if you're about to invade someone, you want all your hospitals up close to the line, not defensively spread in the backfield. This goes back at least as far as Zhukov's blitz preparations in August of 1939 against Japan. At best, that's a diplomatic signal to the other side that D-Day may now measure in H-Hours (so to speak).

2.) The Russians are evacuating Russian Ukrainians from near the Russian-controlled side of the border, back deeper in-country. This is also fully evocative of large-scale preparation for invading over the border -- for example the Nazis started doing this a couple of weeks before Barbarossa, mainly so that they could push their invasion forces right up to the go-line with as few unorganized people in the way as possible. (The Soviets were doing the same on the other side at the same time, and recognized in their scouting reports that the Nazis doing so was an invasion preparation.)

Now I'm wondering how much barbed wire, or any defensive impediment equivalents thereof, remain on the Russian side of the border...  :(

[Pete Dero]

2.) The Russians are evacuating Russian Ukrainians from near the Russian-controlled side of the border, back deeper in-country.

Has all the signs of another false flag operation (or they invented time travel)

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-19-22-intl/h_ce9740910a589f378762a6c2c3664e53
https://www.axios.com/telegram-ukraine-russia-separatists-evacuation-23c418ef-cd60-4ab7-afdf-6f3260102a4a.html

Metadata from the messaging app Telegram indicates that pro-Russian separatist leaders created videos ordering "emergency" evacuations from eastern Ukraine two days ago, but posted them on Friday, Bellingcat first reported and Axios can confirm.

Denis Pushilin, leader of the breakaway Donetsk state in eastern Ukraine, said on his video appeal that "today, Feb. 18, a mass centralized evacuation of the population to the Russian Federation has been organized." Shortly afterwards, Leonid Pasechnik, the most senior official in the Luhansk People's Republic, announced a similar move.

In his video, Pushilin also claimed that a large-scale offensive by Ukrainian forces against the Donetsk People's Republic was imminent, a claim the Ukrainian authorities have strenuously denied.

CNN downloaded the videos from Telegram and checked their metadata.
Both video files have "Wednesday 16" as their creation date, meaning that they were recorded at least two days before they were posted on Telegram.
The platform preserves metadata for the videos posted there and it cannot be changed.


You can't ask people to evacuate because of an explosion when that bomb will go off 2 days later, unless you are also the one planning the explosion.

[z1812]

Mod edit: c'mon Z, you know better than that.

The above comment doesn't indicate why my post was censored.

I posted a link to a Tucker Carlson Fox News video, just the link, without comment. The following poster uses the term "racist asshat moron", in regards to the programs commentator, who made no racist comments whatsoever ever during the video, yet I am the one whose post is censored.

The video was critical, in a very sarcastic way, of what the commentator regarded as foolish panic regarding the Ukraine situation. I am not an American. Did I violate some unwritten rule. Is linking to Fox News articles forbidden on this forum?

[Jarhead0331]

^z1812....didn't you know? The most popular broadcaster in the country is a "racist asshat moron".

In any event, the video clearly crosses the line into what we would consider R&P and we have prohibited that kind of content until further notice. I have not viewed any of the other links posted from "news" sources, but as I have already warned in this thread, I expect all material and content to be focused on the strategic or tactical implications of the stand off and potential confrontation.

Everybody be mature and use your best judgment and common sense.

Thanks.

[GDS_Starfury]

PM sent to give further backround Z.