Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Pete Dero]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/20/ukraine-crisis-russia-plans-biggest-war-since-1945-says-johnson-zelenskiy-calls-for-sanctions-now-live?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-extends-belarus-drills-for-thousands-of-troops-as-ukraine-violence-escalates-11645364792

Russian military exercises in Belarus 'will continue indefinitely' ...

[Uberhaus]

The video was critical, in a very sarcastic way, of what the commentator regarded as foolish panic regarding the Ukraine situation. I am not an American. Did I violate some unwritten rule. Is linking to Fox News articles forbidden on this forum?

If I might make an overture about "foolish panic".  The modern Russian state has a proven history of attacking its neighbours.  After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has used military force against: 
1992
Moldova
Tajikistan
Domestically in the Northern Caucasus
1999
Chechnya (again a domestic war)
2008
Georgia
Ukraine 2014
Syria 2015

This is a clear pattern of aggression, and after the "polite" 'little green men" in Crimea it is hard for anyone to believe the Russian government's claim that there will be no invasion of Ukraine.  Especially, with so much military force encircling Ukraine. 
It was hoped that Europe had moved on from the 19th and 20th centuries changing of borders with military force to the rule of international law. 

[Jarhead0331]

The video was critical, in a very sarcastic way, of what the commentator regarded as foolish panic regarding the Ukraine situation. I am not an American. Did I violate some unwritten rule. Is linking to Fox News articles forbidden on this forum?

If I might make an overture about "foolish panic".  The modern Russian state has a proven history of attacking its neighbours.  After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has used military force against: 
1992
Moldova
Tajikistan
Domestically in the Northern Caucasus
1999
Chechnya (again a domestic war)
2008
Georgia
Ukraine 2014
Syria 2015

This is a clear pattern of aggression, and after the "polite" 'little green men" in Crimea it is hard for anyone to believe the Russian government's claim that there will be no invasion of Ukraine.  Especially, with so much military force encircling Ukraine. 
It was hoped that Europe had moved on from the 19th and 20th centuries changing of borders with military force to the rule of international law.

I think this argument is debatable and it's a slippery slope. It is not appropriate for this thread.

Please move on or the thread will be locked.

[Uberhaus]

Wilco

[Jarhead0331]

Wilco

Thanks, bro. 

[GDS_Starfury]

very hard topic to not get political with because of the history and future ramifications.

[Jarhead0331]

very hard topic to not get political with because of the history and future ramifications.

Agreed. But that is the rule for now. There is plenty to discuss from a military and strategic perspective without getting into inflammatory political debate.

[ArizonaTank]

Well, while I haven't heard any dirt-level information on the backfield logistics being buffed up to invasion support levels on the Russian side, I did hear two more things today regarding border developments that do not bode well.
....

Not certain we would ever hear the detail about logistics. The only news correspondents on the ground seem to only have a very narrow field of vision so far. I am guessing that we are only seeing what the two sides want us to see. 

The US seems to be remarkably open about what intel is showing. The opinions I have heard from the various media talking heads are that this openness is meant to unsettle Russian preparations and rally Western opinions.

The US is reporting that Russian units are moving to their jump off locations. Interesting that this news synched with the Beijing Olympics closing ceremony...maybe there was a connection after all.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-has-intel-that-russian-troops-have-orders-to-invade-ukraine-report/ar-AAU6hkz?ocid=msedgntp

[Pete Dero]

 
On social media and some news sites pictures like those above are showing Russian armoured tanks and vehicles marked with the letter "Z" that are heading to the Ukrainian border.
One explanation is that they have been marked with the distinctive white letter inside a square box in an attempt to avoid friendly fire if war breaks out, because the Ukrainians have very similar tanks and vehicles.

Does this sound plausible ?

[Gusington]

^That's interesting and the first I have read about it.

[ArizonaTank]

On social media and some news sites pictures like those above are showing Russian armoured tanks and vehicles marked with the letter "Z" that are heading to the Ukrainian border.
One explanation is that they have been marked with the distinctive white letter inside a square box in an attempt to avoid friendly fire if war breaks out, because the Ukrainians have very similar tanks and vehicles.

Does this sound plausible ?

Yes, plausible. Particularly if the pro-Russian separatists and maybe even Belarus forces participate in the invasion. Might help eliminate friendly fire incidents. But I really don't know...just speculation.

This article from the UK's "The Sun" agrees with that idea: 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17710288/russia-operation-z-ukraine-border-invasion/

[Uberhaus]

^That's interesting and the first I have read about it.

It seems to be very new.  Trivial but there is no uppercase 'Z' in the Cyrillic alphabet, 'Z' looks like the Arabic numeral '3', so it may just be a pattern of lines.  It is a disturbing development especially with the intelligence about local commanders being ordered to prepare their local manoeuvres for invasion.

As to Putin's meeting with Xi, Xi wouldn't have wanted his Olympics messed up but they definitely spent time discussing trade.  I think China would be more than happy to buy Russian energy and goods.  My napkin calculus makes me think that the losses to Russia's economy from Western sanctions will be less than what is gained by controlling Ukraine.  Ukraine's GNP was $147.7 billion for 2020, and it has had it's economy refurbished by western investment.  Kharkiv has the Antonov and Morozev and Malyshev (tank factories), nuclear plant parts and electronics manufacturing.  Ukraine was the bread basket of the USSR, Putin has said "Ukraine was the crown jewel of the USSR."  Then, if in the face of sanctions, Putin can sell energy and goods to China rather than the West, there will only be a relatively short period of economic pain for normal Russians.  The Russian elite will have problems with their foreign held wealth but that will not affect them that greatly.  It would be interesting to hear the comments of someone with real economic knowledge about my premises.

I'm going to go full Chicken Little here for a moment. I will never be so glad to be called a fool in two weeks time but here goes.  If Russia invades they will respond to the West's sanctions with cyber attacks, the FBI and DHS believes so  https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-fbi-and-dhs-warn-us-officials-of-possible-russian-cyber-attacks-linked-to-invasion-of-ukraine-220516786.html  The removal from SWIFT, the international banking transfer system will be received very badly.  I wish all of our cyber enemies the illest of luck, however, we should respect their ability to damage our society and they may get lucky in a small area.  Maybe consider backing up your private financials onto a hard copy seperate from the internet.  Be prepared to possibly lose utilities, as has happened in Ukraine.  A good short guide for preparing for such events was published by the Swedish government: If War Comes(english) https://rib.msb.se/filer/pdf/28706.pdf  Being prepared isn't panicking.

Well, I look forward and hope to be called every epithet for fool, but in the meantime just take some small steps.

[Con]

Getting my solar panels installed tomorrow.
Hopefully not to late with the wall power unit

[JasonPratt]

My brother (who got me into wargaming long ago when we were kids) is the chief vice president of a credit union, and told us yesterday that Russian sources have been trying to hack the credit union an average of five times a day recently. But the c-u has really good IT and very expensive anti-hack protection, so (as far as they can tell) the probes have not gotten in.

[Gusington]

The Russian cyber threat to American energy utilities is very real.