Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

NY Times is reporting that Germany has indeed halted the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.

[Karri]

I bet Putin's next step is to officially integrate Belarus into Russia. All of this Ukraine stuff might just be smokes and mirrors for that.

[W8taminute]

Russian "peacekeepers" incoming (to the Ukraine)...

...  His eyes stare at a fixed point and don't move.  He's either reading off a teleprompter or just as likely trained to defeat NLP.   ...

I found that sentence to be very interesting.  Forgive my ignorance but what is NLP? 

[Jarhead0331]

A tremendous amount of military aviation over Europe at the moment and this is only those with active transponders. Much more fighter activity than I typically see. I'm tracking F-15s, F-16s, Eurofighters, T-45s and A-104s. i even see B-52s over the North Sea and a shit-ton of transport aircraft. C-130s, C-5s, C-17s, etc. I see an E-3 Sentry over Poland and Stratotankers over Germany...and choppers, loads of choppers. I'm actually tracking MI-24s over Czechia, Apaches in the Netherlands and chinooks and merlins in the UK.  A VERY impressive show.

I really hope FedEx gets my order from Virpil into the air and out of Lithuania before the situation deteriorates further.  :hide:                                     

[ArizonaTank]

A tremendous amount of military aviation over Europe at the moment and this is only those with active transponders. Much more fighter activity than I typically see. I'm tracking F-15s, F-16s, Eurofighters, T-45s and A-104s. i even see B-52s over the North Sea and a shit-ton of transport aircraft. C-130s, C-5s, C-17s, etc. I see an E-3 Sentry over Poland and Stratotankers over Germany...and choppers, loads of choppers. I'm actually tracking MI-24s over Czechia, Apaches in the Netherlands and chinooks and merlins in the UK.  A VERY impressive show.

I really hope FedEx gets my order from Virpil into the air and out of Lithuania before the situation deteriorates further.  :hide:                                   

Sounds like NATO is putting on a "show" and wants to be seen.

[Uberhaus]

Very happy to hear about the airshow in Europe.

Russian "peacekeepers" incoming (to the Ukraine)...

...  His eyes stare at a fixed point and don't move.  He's either reading off a teleprompter or just as likely trained to defeat NLP.   ...

I found that sentence to be very interesting.  Forgive my ignorance but what is NLP?

Briefly, Neuro Linguistic Programming (https://nlp-mentor.com/eye-body-language/) is a technique that when used for interogation can determine whether someone is accessing memory or imagination.  For the majority of people looking up and to the left on being questioned indicates that one is accessing memory and telling the truth, while looking up and to the right is accessing imagination and lying.  This is all determinate on brain dominance and 'the tells' can be reversed so observation is required beforehand usually through questioning such as tell me about a time that you did such and such; make up a story for me.  It requires a lot of training and is quite hard to do, people who read a book and believe they can do it (like me) are frankly rather dangerous.  However, I did clearly see that Putin's eyes stayed fixed on one point, not looking up in either direction.
Micro expressions (very brief displays of emotion that the user is trying to conceal) are easier to use.  I did see clear unconcealed expressions of disgust/contempt (wrinkling of nose like to a bad smell) and anger (puffing up in size and showing teeth) during his tirade against Ukraine and the historical wrongs done to Russia.  He did seem to show an expression of exasperation with one of the leaders of the rebel areas when the document of Russian recognition was being signed.

On Putin's health a critic Valery Solovey claims Putin had surgery for cancer in February 2020 and may have Parkinson's https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8970989/Vladimir-Putin-underwent-surgery-cancer-February-critic-claims.html  He was arrested the month after https://www.wionews.com/world/valery-solovey-russian-pundit-who-raised-concerns-about-putins-health-arrested-348114  You might want to take that with a grain of salt though.  He has gained weight in the face and gut, that's clear to see.

This report is a bit disturbing that Putin might be on a 'sacred mission' https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/putin-ukraine-nato-eurasianism-1.6352998 

Matthew Schmidt is an associate professor and national security expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut. He said the emphasis NATO allies place on geopolitics and the rules-based international order may mean very little to Putin — who may be looking at the current standoff through a quasi-religious lens. It's not enough, Schmidt said, to say Putin wants to reassemble the old Soviet Union. Putin is a subscriber to an early 20th century philosophical and political movement called Eurasianism, he said — a creed that rejects Russia's integration with Europe. Eurasianism died out during communist rule but rebounded in the early 21st century — and Putin has written about it. "He said this is quasi-religious ... the idea that there is sacred soil that exists outside of that, the territorial borders of Russia, and that what you need to do is regain that sacred soil and the ethnic Russians that are on it, whether they want to be part of your state or not," said Schmidt. Schmidt said the idea of Putin looking at Ukraine through a nationalist or ethnic-identity lens is one of the most alarming things about the standoff over Ukraine. It's also something non-Russians tend to overlook in their eagerness to interpret Putin's actions and motivations, he said — the possibility that the consequences of invading Ukraine mean little to him in the face of a quasi-religious quest.

If he is sick, and if I might try getting in the opponents head, he may be thinking "my time is short and only I am capable of doing this."  I think we will see a brief pause as the Russians move into the breakaway regions.  I'll leave calculations of the timeframe to a non-active, non-couch general.  Then the Russians will claim to be fired upon by the Ukrainians (who are under strict orders not to fire except under exceptional circumstances (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-russian-security-council-eastern-ukraine-1.6359253))  "Ukrainian military spokesperson Pavlo Kovalchyuk insisted that Ukrainian forces weren't returning fire."  Putin clearly ordered Ukraine to stop attacks on Russia in his speech yesterday which is a ludicrous assertion considering the balance of military power.  This is a very obvious assertion, but expect another lie in a few days and Russia's invasion to commence.

I'm slinging a lot of shit against the wall here, some of it will stick, but even I am looking at what I am saying with a critical eye.

[ArizonaTank]

Briefly, Neuro Linguistic Programming (https://nlp-mentor.com/eye-body-language/) is a technique that when used for interogation can determine whether someone is accessing memory or imagination. ....

....
Micro expressions (very brief displays of emotion that the user is trying to conceal) are easier to use.  I did see clear unconcealed expressions of disgust/contempt (wrinkling of nose like to a bad smell) and anger (puffing up in size and showing teeth) during his tirade against Ukraine and the historical wrongs done to Russia.  He did seem to show an expression of exasperation with one of the leaders of the rebel areas when the document of Russian recognition was being signed.
....

I thought there were some interesting "tells." It was interesting that before his speech...during his security council meeting, each member of the council got up to talk. The camera would sometimes go to Putin while the others were talking. I thought he often looked bored and impatient...like he couldn't wait for the kabuki to finish. At one point, he briefly strummed his fingers on his desk..like he really wasn't listening to what the council members were saying.

[Pete Dero]

At one point, he briefly strummed his fingers on his desk..like he really wasn't listening to what the council members were saying.

He doesn't need to listen.  They are only speaking the words he told them to speak.

This is how he started his council meeting :  "Every one of you knows, and I specially want to underline it ... I did not discuss any of this with you before. I did not ask your opinion before.  And this is happening spontaneously, because I wanted to hear your opinions without any preliminary preparation".
And than a spontaneous piece of theater play started ...

[Uberhaus]

Briefly, Neuro Linguistic Programming (https://nlp-mentor.com/eye-body-language/) is a technique that when used for interogation can determine whether someone is accessing memory or imagination. ....

....
Micro expressions (very brief displays of emotion that the user is trying to conceal) are easier to use.  I did see clear unconcealed expressions of disgust/contempt (wrinkling of nose like to a bad smell) and anger (puffing up in size and showing teeth) during his tirade against Ukraine and the historical wrongs done to Russia.  He did seem to show an expression of exasperation with one of the leaders of the rebel areas when the document of Russian recognition was being signed.
....

I thought there were some interesting "tells." It was interesting that before his speech...during his security council meeting, each member of the council got up to talk. The camera would sometimes go to Putin while the others were talking. I thought he often looked bored and impatient...like he couldn't wait for the kabuki to finish. At one point, he briefly strummed his fingers on his desk..like he really wasn't listening to what the council members were saying.

I only saw the briefest part of the initial council meeting this morning. The BBC commentator stating exactly what you and Pete Dero say, in that Putin was clearly impatient for this theatrical piece to end.

If you are not active duty or on the reserve list, what do you think the timeline will be for the Russians to move fully into place in Donetsk, and Luhansk before they are ready for offensive operations?

[Pete Dero]

If he is sick, and if I might try getting in the opponents head, he may be thinking "my time is short and only I am capable of doing this." 

I have absolutely no idea if this is true or not.  But if it is correct this might make him even more dangerous as he doesn't have to live with the long term consequences.

[Sir Slash]

Right. Because who's going to tell him he's too sick to rule? NOT a good career move. 

[Uberhaus]

If he is sick, and if I might try getting in the opponents head, he may be thinking "my time is short and only I am capable of doing this." 

I have absolutely no idea if this is true or not.  But if it is correct this might make him even more dangerous as he doesn't have to live with the long term consequences.

As to "I have absolutely no idea if this is true or not."  Neither do I, it is a thought exercise.  What is my opponent doing, what are his motivations, his capabilities, etc?  Trying to think as the competition whether in business, sport or wargaming can be revealing.  I'm an amateur trying to do it for something much more serious. 
btw have you seen this?  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-dresses-down-russias-spy-chief/vi-AAUaxQZ  i shouldn't feel sorry for a Russian spy master, but I don't know whether to laugh or pity the poor sod every time he flinches.

[W8taminute]

Thanks for the explanation Uberhaus. 

I had an uncle, who died many years ago, who emigrated from the former Soviet Union tell me that whenever you are being questioned always look your interrogator in the eye and don't break contact even for a moment. 

The explanation you provided is the science I needed to understand what street smarts had told me to do. 

[Toonces]

I bet Putin's next step is to officially integrate Belarus into Russia. All of this Ukraine stuff might just be smokes and mirrors for that.

Interestingly, this article just popped up on the Atlantic a few minutes ago:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/russia-creeping-annexation-belarus/622878/

In the space of a month, Vladimir Putin has effectively managed to transform a former Soviet state into an extension of Russian territory, in full view of the United States and Europe, without firing a single shot in the country. This isn't unfolding in Ukraine but neighboring Belarus, which has served as a home for Russian troops and military hardware since the start of the year, ostensibly because of planned drills between the two countries' militaries. Over the weekend, the Belarusian government announced that the 30,000 Russian troops on its soil—Moscow's largest deployment on Minsk's territory since the end of the Cold War—could be there to stay.

Regardless of what happens in Ukraine, this is a major victory in Putin's war with the West. The move not only represents a violation of Belarusian sovereignty, but poses a significant challenge to NATO as a security guarantor in the Baltics: Belarus shares a border with two NATO members. Still, few leaders outside the Baltic region have said anything about the announcement or how they plan to respond. The cost of doing nothing could be enormous.

[Toonces]

Not to derail this thread but have you every looked at a picture in real life (like those pictures of armored vehicles at the Ukrainian border) and then thought, "I really want to play game "x" now"?

(sheepinshly raises hand)

I was looking for Next War: Poland on Sunday, but it's OOP and priced way too high where I can find it used.  I have The Operational Art of War 4...I wonder if there's a Ukraine scenario?

Meantime, I re-installed Combat Mission: Black Sea last weekend.  But I didn't want to admit it as it seems pretty morally wrong TBH.   :-[