Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Jarhead0331]

Obviously not getting the full picture here but I am somewhat surprised that the Russians haven't gone full shock army assault mode here. Almost looks like they are probing and using small special forces action. I was estimating amphibious landings and large scale armored maneuvering with contact to take place within the first hours of the invasion. But judging from what is being reported that doesn't seem to be the case.

Some of the sources I'm reading disagree with your assessment. I've seen that Russia has declared war and has launched a full-scale attack. Some of the pictures look brutal and there is already tremendous civilian suffering.

[MengJiao]

Even with all the buildup this is still shocking. I need to catch up.

  IT really is shocking.  Frankly, I never remotely imagined the Russians could do anything this stupid.  At this point, they have no wiggle room except in their own imaginations...once you start knocking
out air defenses and taking airports and driving in with armor, that's just plain all-out war.  It's interesting that Belarus is asking for the latest in air defense technology.  you'd think they would have worried about that sooner since they aren't that big and have NATO countries on two sides.

[Gusington]

There are some images on Reuters of a general panic and evacuation from multiple Ukrainian cities...insanity.

https://www.reuters.com/

[steve58]

This article has some maps that helped me get some perspective of whats going on.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/MAGAZINE-ukraine-russia-war-6-maps-to-make-sense-of-the-invasion-1.10632555

[Gusington]

More images from the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-60505277

[W8taminute]

An Israeli analyst talks Russia and Ukraine among other topics.  Very insightful.

[ArizonaTank]

Some of the sources I'm reading disagree with your assessment. I've seen that Russia has declared war and has launched a full-scale attack. Some of the pictures look brutal and there is already tremendous civilian suffering.

Agree, looks like full scale war. I saw the Deputy Mayor of Lviv (a major city in far west Ukraine, near the Polish border) say on CNN this morning that they were hearing explosions outside of Lviv. Who knows exactly what it means. Missile or Spetsnaz strikes against air facilities? Or maybe long range artillery/missiles out of western Belarus? Possibly trying to disrupt logistics and communications links between Ukraine and NATO? But no matter where it is coming from, hitting so close to Lviv probably means that Putin is attacking the whole country.

[MengJiao]

Some of the sources I'm reading disagree with your assessment. I've seen that Russia has declared war and has launched a full-scale attack. Some of the pictures look brutal and there is already tremendous civilian suffering.

Agree, looks like full scale war. I saw the Deputy Mayor of Lviv (a major city in far west Ukraine, near the Polish border) say on CNN this morning that they were hearing explosions outside of Lviv. Who knows exactly what it means. Missile or Spetsnaz strikes against air facilities? Or maybe long range artillery/missiles out of western Belarus? Possibly trying to disrupt logistics and communications links between Ukraine and NATO? But no matter where it is coming from, hitting so close to Lviv probably means that Putin is attacking the whole country.

  Well, assuming the Ukrainian Army fights (and apparently it is fighting), they have interior lines against piecemeal and somewhat perfunctory attacks -- for all that there is some kind of air war, there are
plenty of pictures of Ukrainian tanks and vehicles moving down highways (of course those might be from last year, but probably not)  You'd think hitting the Ukrainian armor driving down the highway would be a priority if you are bothering to have an air war at all.  Ukraine does have some standard US gear (like Javelin missiles).  Maybe they counter-targetted Russian communications with drones or EMP weapons or maybe we just aren't getting any news of the Ukrainian Army getting pounded (some Ukrainian officials have beens sounding pretty upbeat lately so maybe things aren't going all Russia's way at the fighting fronts).

[Con]

CNN just had General Westlake on and I am paraphrasing his summary here is that there is broad push on the ground with softening of the air defenses and strikes.  Of course definition of broad vs intensity is different but my assumption of how the war was going to unfold was to run a decapitation strike into Kyiv and pin down/split forces with amphib landings in Odessa to create the Crimean landbridge into the Med.
As for the Ukrainians they can only be reinforced through their Western Borders, no C5 or Hercs are flying into Ukraine airspace. I wonder what is the most benefit to them (ie I cant see a battalion of M1A2s being driven to Ukraine and then handing them the keys being useful) - what can NATO provide for material help apart from CCCI and more Javelins etc.

[Jarhead0331]

Russian KA-52 shot down outside of Kyiv...



Russian prisoners of war from unit 91701 of Yampol motorised infantry regiment.

[Tripoli]

Good analysis by JE Dyer, (a retired USN intell analyst): https://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2022/02/24/toc-ready-room-24-feb-2022-putin-makes-his-move/#more-6202

[MengJiao]

There are some images on Reuters of a general panic and evacuation from multiple Ukrainian cities...insanity.

https://www.reuters.com/

  Russia closed the Sea of Azov (and Ukraine issued orders to shipping not to enter the Sea of Azov).  Ukraine has asked Turkey to close the straits.  I'm not sure how that jives with international agreements, but what could Russia do if Turkey closed the straits and isolated the Black Sea?  Piddle around threateningly for years while their economy keeps dying?  Once they've blown up the Ukraine, what next?  Turkey?  Anyone but China?  I just don't see how blowing things up in the Ukraine helps them at all.

  Turkey has not signed the UN law of the sea convention and can close the straits for "Safety Reasons" if they want.

[Gusington]

The NYTimes has video of about 20 Russian helicopters assaulting a Ukrainian city, it's surreal. Ukraine is already claiming to have shot down some and also dozens of its soldiers killed just in these first few hours.

[ArizonaTank]

Russian prisoners of war from unit 91701 of Yampol motorised infantry regiment.

Kids. Especially the guy on the left. It's still true; old men start wars that young men have to fight. 

[MengJiao]

The NYTimes has video of about 20 Russian helicopters assaulting a Ukrainian city, it's surreal. Ukraine is already claiming to have shot down some and also dozens of its soldiers killed just in these first few hours.

  Meanwhile, the Russians are warning that Ukraine is making fake videos of mass casualties.  I wonder what fantasy world the Russians are living in if they think the Ukrainians have the time
or motivation to make fake videos of mass casualties?  It's like the Russians have picked the most expensive messy and round-about way to make themselves look completely pathetic.

and in other news:

A Turkish-owned ship, the Yasa Jupiter, was hit by a bomb off the coast of Odessa, Ukraine, but there were no casualties and the ship is safe and heading to Romanian waters, the Turkish Maritime Authority said. There was no request for help.