Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, today's Epic Economist episode takes a look at how the invasion is affecting the already-sliding markets. There was a bit of a rally, sort of, as the market realized the West's sanctions weren't going to be so bad yet, but (arguably) that rally won't be enough.

(The episodes are a bit overproduced, including the click-baity thumbnail, but the source material is solid. ;) )

[Sir Slash]

Ukrainian Member of Parliament on Laure Ingram tonight claims that Putin's attempt to blitz the country in one day has failed and the Ukrainian Army is holding well everywhere. Maybe the new, 'Bagdad Bob', but I hope he's right. 'Kiev Karl'?  :-"

[JasonPratt]

Regarding the rumorish report that Putin suckered some volunteers to train on the border with promises they wouldn't be shooting, and suffered some mutiny when surprise they're gonna be shooting (and shot at) after all:

At first that didn't make sense to me. But then I remembered, in Russian (previously Soviet) mobilization theory you don't play games with mobilization: if a modern nation calls up its reserves, it is dang well going to war even if its politicians later decide they'd rather not! (This goes back at least as far as the very detailed arguments of Boris Shaposhnikov, based on studies of World War I and other lesser early modern conflicts. Alas none of his works seem available in English.)

Whatever else Putin was doing, he was playing games on the border with options not to invade (despite weeks of planning and setup beforehand, as we can now see). So, how far does he mobilize to do that, and so signal to anyone who studies Russian strategy that he's about to invade?

If he signs up a significant amount of super-green troops, however, and puts them through training on the border -- telling them it's a diplomatic showpiece of course in order to mask the opportunities he's setting up -- then he's proportionately avoiding Shaposhnikov's "mobilization pregnancy" and also keeping observers guessing about his intentions. (Until he starts sending combat hospitals to the front line, of course, which is a clear signal to any such observers that he sure ain't preparing to hunker down on defense!)

This makes me curious again about what his backfield logistics look like. Training logistics, however extensive they may be for 120K combined-arms troops (even increasing to nearly 200K), fall far short of invasion logistics for those same troops, which in themselves fall far short of occupation logistics (taking and holding areas, not only shooting to destroy the enemy). And that's along one axis of advance, for example to take and hold the claimed eastern 'republics'. If you're launching combined-force ops across multiple fronts, your logistic challenges and requirements increase at least proportionately.

Putin is now into Day 2. Day 1 hasn't gone so well as he could hope, despite some successes, and has also ignited some daring civil unrest movements in his interior lines, which his system is in no condition to tolerate. What kind of solid logistic support does he have behind his thrusts (of various kinds -- allowing that his logistics might be better for some kinds of attack than others)?

Are his logistics like butter being spread over too much bread? Are they like breadlines with no hope of more butter? Even if he has plenty of bread and butter at the moment, it isn't a good idea to shove your invasion logistic support up to the line at (relatively) the last moment, even to keep your enemy misled or unsure about your real intentions: he might have a jumbled pile (or widely scattered jumbled piles) of not-much-more-to-come to feed his war with.

Even if he succeeds (with all those air strikes, manned and unmanned) in fragmenting Ukraine's settled interior lines, its own logistic bone structure and muscles, that won't positively help support his own invasion. He's got to have good structure already, to even efficiently use captured Ukrainian logistics.

Supposing however that he has solidly developed and supplied a multi-front combined-arms logistics system around Ukraine, able in theory to support substantial invasion time (or even occupation time): can his economy efficiently (or even theoretically) feed that logistics network in practice?

By Day 7 we'll have a better picture about how his backfield is doing, I guess.

[ArizonaTank]

....

Are his logistics like butter being spread over too much bread? Are they like breadlines with no hope of more butter? Even if he has plenty of bread and butter at the moment, it isn't a good idea to shove your invasion logistic support up to the line at (relatively) the last moment, even to keep your enemy misled or unsure about your real intentions: he might have a jumbled pile (or widely scattered jumbled piles) of not-much-more-to-come to feed his war with.

....

By Day 7 we'll have a better picture about how his backfield is doing, I guess.

I agree, I think in week we will know. But now, I think the situation is probably so chaotic on the ground that probably nobody really knows what is going on. I am pretty wary of any reports we hear at this time.

If indeed, the Russians are not doing well, it may be down to just "experience." When the Germans invaded Poland in 1939, the German Army was so poor at large scale operations that for a very brief window of time it seemed like the Poles might hold them off. There were German generals who started to wonder if they would have to pull out. But the Germans learned quickly, made corrections, and over time the weight of German numbers ground the Poles down (of course the Poles were truly lost when Stalin stabbed them in the back). Part of me wonders if that is what we are seeing today. This slow advance is just the result of an Army who hasn't done something on this scale in 77 years. They are still learning how to move.

In terms of logistics, the Ukrainians are apparently saying that some prisoners have been near starving. Maybe...maybe...

I am wondering why no "shock and awe." According to the CNN reporter on the ground in Moscow, Russian media is playing up the idea that Russian forces are exercising extreme restraint to limit civilian casualties and treat Ukrainian prisoners well. The CNN reporter felt this was because many Russians have family ties in Ukraine and this was a play to assuage their fears. Maybe there really is restraint...maybe...maybe...

They are possibly trying to avoid the pictures we saw 30 years ago when the Coalition attacked Baghdad. Even if true, how long will the Russians exercise restraint if they are taking it on the nose?

My favorite story so far was from Alexander Vindman on CNN. Apparently Ukrainian social media is alight with the story of "The Ghost of Kyiv"; a Ukrainian Mig 29 pilot who supposedly shot down six Russian aircraft today. On the surface it sounds like just a wishful rumor. None of the major news services are carrying it. Still, a Mig 29 is very nimble, and would have been in a target rich environment, over friendly AA territory...maybe...maybe...  If true, it will be a heck of a story.  Here is a link for what its worth...

https://showbizcorner.com/ghost-of-kyiv-mig-29-ukraine-ace-fulcrum-pilot

[ArizonaTank]

Finland moving closer to NATO?

A few weeks back Finland's Prime Minister was saying there was no discussion of joining NATO.  Today she said the "debate had changed."

The President of Finland "was asked by a journalist what he now thinks of Russian President Vladimir Putin following the failure of diplomatic efforts and the launch of military action in Ukraine.

"The mask has now come off and only the cold face of war is visible," Niinistö responded."

https://yle.fi/news/3-12332089

[MengJiao]

Finland moving closer to NATO?

  Yep.  I think in some ways Putin has managed to send a message that is not what he intended.  It seems like the Putin message might be read as "Join NATO or die."

  And CNN sees some local Russian reporting that the Ukrainians have hit a Russian airfield at Millerovo:

Komsomolskaya Pravda, a local newspaper, reported that a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile hit the military facility on Friday 25, citing a source in the law enforcement agencies of the region.

Another media outlet, the Rostov Gazeta, reported Millerovo was attacked by armed formations of the Ukrainian army. It also reported an unspecified number of wounded.



Could be a commando raid on a Russian airfield.

And:

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said airborne assault troops blew up a bridge over the Teteriv River at Ivankiv, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) north of Kyiv,
successfully preventing a Russian column of forces from advancing towards the capital.

I guess the Ukrainians have some command and control and mobile forces left.  Also the Chinese say Putin is "ready to talk" (apparently with the Comedian he is trying to kill?  Or maybe
some other comedian who has killed that particular comedian? ).  Ready to talk "at a high level"..."no jokes please.  This is serious.  Just look at all the stuff we've blown up and we aren't even really
seriously trying.  Okay, I mean we are seriously trying, right?"

One wonders what Putin would have to say to any particular Ukrainian comedian.  Something like, "Did you finally kill that comedian?"

Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov also said more than 200 people from Ukrainian special units had been killed.

Strange they don't say where this happened.  The Bridge north of Kiev or Millerovo?  Maybe?  Anyway, I'm sure casualties are in the thousands by this point which makes it even stranger
that 200 special forces are mentioned.  Perhaps they hit the Russians hard somewhere.

And Putin is getting angry:

Addressing the Ukrainian military in a televised address, a visibly angry Putin urged the military to "take power in your own hands".

Okay so...try to sort out what Putin wants...he wants to "negotiate"...but apparently not with Zelensky, yet it seems a little late to ask the army he is attacking to engage in a
coordinated mutiny and if he destroys them then they can't take power, so he has to kill X number so that the survivors will not surrender, but mutiny.  it seems like he has to
make some kind of plausible offer...a ceasefire or something if he wants results on that front.
Meanwhile, there seems to be some other offer of negotiations via Belarus, which again would seem to presuppose some kind of ceasefire.  So it appears there is some notion
floating somewhere in the Russian plan to isolate Kiev and then offer a ceasefire.  What might be tricky about that is that I doubt even NATO would sit by while a whole city is
held hostage.
Moreover, what guarantees can the Russians offer at this point...are they just going to leave on the proviso that they can come back any time and do anything they want in a
"neutral" demilitarized Ukraine?  How could the Ukrainians possibly agree to a situation where the next time around they don't even have an army?  Or any allies?

  The Russians now say the Ukrainians are lying about being willing to negotiate.  Kinda hard to figure that one out.

Meanwhile this is probably a Russian fabrication since US intell reportedly says they haven't seen any big airlifts on day 2, also the "200" sounds suspicious and there are videos showing Russian jets and helicopters going down:

More than 200 Russian helicopters were involved in the operation," according to the statement. "The success of the landing was ensured by the suppression of the entire air defense system in the landing area, the complete isolation of the combat area from the air and the active conduct of electronic warfare."

Konashenkov claimed that Russian forces killed more than 200 of the opposing forces and that there were no casualties among in the Russian Armed Forces.


On the other hand, they are definitely pushing into the area of Kiev one way or another.

[Gusington]

Russians are advancing on Kiev now.

[steve58]

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497128689384919040

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tank-soviet-union-ukraine-invasion-dnieper-war-video-1682593

[W8taminute]

Fascinating.  So you send in your newbs into a hotzone because:

1. You are saving your crack troops for something even more important or bigger than Ukraine
2. You really don't have a good army anymore and have to rely on inexperienced soldiers
3. You although you know you will easily win the war why waste good troops when you can use cannon fodder

Am I missing anything else that could be added to the list?

A lot of it is to wear down the opposition with weaker forces and soak up the limited supply of western supplied weapons. 

You want the Ukrainians to waste their Javelins on C-D grade T-72's and older APCs rather than your front line T-80/90s.  You can send in the better formations in the second wave after the enemy has taken a lot of casualties and expended a lot of ordinance/exhaustion on the first.

That makes sense.  I was wondering why am I only seeing old T-72s in all the news videos.

[Jarhead0331]

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497128689384919040

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tank-soviet-union-ukraine-invasion-dnieper-war-video-1682593

Not really...soldiers often times fly stupid flags on their vehicles. I'm fairly certain the majority of the Russian army is not composed of hardline Soviets.

[Uberhaus]

From BBC live:
"Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said earlier the city had "entered into a defensive phase".

The government is calling on the people of Kyiv to do everything it can to resist Russian troops, including making Molotov cocktails and taking up arms."

If they add Полістиролу it will gel and stick.

[Con]

I really think the next step for NATO is to pull a Putin and send in their own little Green Men with plausible deniability.
NATO Special Forces/Volunteer units backed with CCCI info and MANPAD/ATGM training would put a world of hurt on Russian forces in urban combat.
Con

[Yskonyn]

I think it would be a very logical step.
Clandestine ops. But the shit really hits the fan if these troops or operatives would become captured and shown to the world by Russia.
I am not sure NATO / US is willing to take that risk right at this moment.
Or perhaps ops like these are already underway and Zelensky has agreed to keep asking for support in public to make Poetin think there is hardly any still.
Hard to say.

[Uberhaus]

From BBC live regarding Chernobyl reactor:

A radiation spike has been recorded around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Data from monitoring stations suggests the levels of radiation increased about 20-fold on Thursday.

"Around the reactor you would normally receive a dose of around 3 units (called microsieverts) every hour - that's jumped to 65," explains Sheffield University nuclear materials expert Prof Claire Corkhill.

"That's about five times more than you would get on a transatlantic flight."

The most likely explanation, she says, is increased movement of people and vehicles in the 4,000 square km Chernobyl exclusion zone has kicked up radioactive dust that is usually undisturbed on the ground.

You get 5 microsieverts from a dental x-ray.  100 from a chest x-ray.  There was hearsay about shelling in the area, hopefully not true as if the protective covering of the reactor had been damaged it would be a disaster.  If through some stupendous act of stupidity the cover is damaged and you can't get iodine, broccoli has large amounts of iodine.

[ArizonaTank]

"Ghost of Kyiv" Mig 29 ace...hitting at least one major news source... But still probably just a story.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-is-the-ghost-of-kyiv-ukraine-mig-29-fighter-pilot-becomes-the-stuff-of-legend/ar-AAUiPL7?ocid=msedgntp