Russia's War Against Ukraine

[steve58]

Kazakstan denies Russia's requests for troops.

[Sir Slash]

Wow!  :wow:  I guess we know who'll be next don't we? I've heard a number of reports that the Russians are not capable of fighting at night. Can anyone confirm their army's more of a 9 to 5 force or is this just incorrect? And if it is true, why in all the assistance we sent them, didn't we send ANY Night-Fighting equipment? Opinions?

[Dammit Carl!]

Wow!  :wow:  I guess we know who'll be next don't we? I've heard a number of reports that the Russians are not capable of fighting at night. Can anyone confirm their army's more of a 9 to 5 force or is this just incorrect? And if it is true, why in all the assistance we sent them, didn't we send ANY Night-Fighting equipment? Opinions?

Perhaps it wasn't thought of - silly seeming answer, I know, but when packing up crates of Cool Shit to send downrange, old fashioned NVGs (or FLIR, or any number of night fighting apparatus) weren't thought of as anyone can get a good deal of things like that over the counter nowadays, so guess that whomever was putting together the packages was like, "eh, they got those things already, I bet."

Dunno.

[MengJiao]

Wow!  :wow:  I guess we know who'll be next don't we? I've heard a number of reports that the Russians are not capable of fighting at night. Can anyone confirm their army's more of a 9 to 5 force or is this just incorrect? And if it is true, why in all the assistance we sent them, didn't we send ANY Night-Fighting equipment? Opinions?

  I do recall reading that the US had not only supplied night-fighting gear, but was actively training Ukrainians in the Ukraine up to the very beginning of signals that the Russians were going to attack.
So at least some Ukrainian units might be relatively proficient at some aspects of night fighting.  You should also remember the Ukrainians are on their local terrain and possibly less encumbered with all the
weird stuff that the Russians can barely remember to remove when CNN starts filming them.  So the Russians seem to be wandering everywhere with everything they might ever need (since well...what exaclty are they supposed to be doing anyway?  Just killing Zelensky?  Looking for Nazis?  What?  What?  well you might need this or this for that or that, right?  Better remember to pick it up or well where exactly
is that thing?  Can you find it in the dark?  Aren't we waiting for Chechens or Khazaks to do this dirty work?).

  And finally, the Russians say:

"But in essence, as the Ukrainian side refused negotiations, the Russian military operation resumed today in accordance with the plan."
 

  And that plan would be?  What?  Kill Zelensky, obviously and then stop, declare victory and then bring in some pathetic ethnic group nobody has ever heard of to look for NAzis for the next
century.  It's a plan.  I'm sure its working already since failure and success look precisely identical when you invade a place with a plan to kill a comedian and look for some people that aren't even
there.

  Or as a retired Russian diplomat in Moscow emailed me: "Tell me how this war ends? Unfortunately, there is no one and nowhere to ask."

  I have a plan, for the low-low price of just a couple of trillion USD, payable to my bank right about now, I will personally call Zelensky's agent and get him a new show on Netfix.
No need to kill him.  Just get him a new show on Netflix.  Then the Russians can
go home and some people with conical (yes "conical") woolly hats and special goggles can wander the world looking for Nazis.
The real problem is what on earth can I do with trillions of dollars.  I guess I'll start  game company or two.

But:
The Kremlin said Ukraine had rejected talks. Ukraine has not confirmed rejecting talks, nor is it clear that Russian forces did halt their advance on Friday.

  Okay, so...hmmm.  Was this non-event part of pathetic plan A or pathetic plan B?  Where is that depised ethnic group with the hats and goggles when you need them?

Ukrainian soldiers barricade roads to protect region around Mariupol

  The Russians still don't have Mariupol?  Oh, wait, that's a place that there might be some point in capturing so...wander off and try to kill that comedian.  We'll let a despised ethnic group look for
Nazis here some time or other, right?  That's a plan at least.

[Gusington]

Nicely done, Kazakhstan. Similar to the Ukrainians at Snake Island yesterday, perhaps a little less forceful.

[Uberhaus]

That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.

Austin Bay at Strategy Page posts his opinion on Putin's strategic objective-RUBiK
https://strategypage.com/on_point/2022022391845.aspx 

What's Putin's strategic goal? We've known for quite some time. Putin is assembling the RUBK -- "Rubik" as in the puzzle Rubik's Cube.

I'll quote from a column I wrote in November 2004. At some point a Russian leader would emerge who would try "to return to super-power status..." and restore key elements of the Soviet Union's empire. This leader would attempt "to link the core empire strength: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (RUBK)...

"Russia, plus Ukraine, plus Belarus, plus Kazakhstan is a geo-strategic formula for a global power re-born."

One last quote: "In 2004, the Kremlin of President Vladimir Putin still sees the economic benefits of a RUBK federation. He also sees it as a way to bring ethnic Russians back inside the borders of Mother Russia."

Putin denies he seeks to recreate the Soviet Union. He lies.

[MengJiao]

That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.

  So theoretically nation X or Y could say "We're having some unrest and we need to join NATO."  Or Turkey could say, "We're having some unrest, we need to exclude Russian ships from the straits."

[GDS_Starfury]

fire up your CMANO!

https://news.usni.org/2022/02/24/russian-navy-masses-16-warships-near-syria

[Uberhaus]

While it won't stop Putin immediately, further sanctions would cause severe economic problems and internal turmoil in Russia.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/russia-ukraine-putin-nuclear-weapons-1.6364554

Bill Browder, the British financier who has been the driving force behind the use of sanctions to punish corrupt regimes, said banning Russian banks from SWIFT would have a more profound impact than sanctioning Putin directly.

"It would knock them back to the Dark Ages economically, and it would be such a powerful and important reaction," he said. "This would be the financial equivalent of what he's done militarily."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/swift-sanctions-russia-banking-ukraine-1.6365146

Maria Shagina, an international sanctions expert based in Helsinki, wrote last year in an article for the Carnegie Moscow Center that the impact of banning Russia from SWIFT could be as devastating as it was for Iran, which was denied access to the system in 2012 over its nuclear program.

"Russia is heavily reliant on SWIFT due to its ... exports of hydrocarbons denominated in U.S. dollars. The cutoff would terminate all international transactions, trigger currency volatility, and cause massive capital outflows," she wrote.

Vacroux said that because Russia's federal budget is so highly dependent on taxes generated from the export of raw materials like oil and gas, it would make it difficult to conduct sales and then get the money needed for the country's budget.

There are arguments against blocking Russia from SWIFT and economic difficulties for Western countries.

"I think there's excessive attention on SWIFT relative to its impact and insufficient attention on U.S. banking sanctions relative to their impact," said Chris Miller, an assistant professor of international history at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, and co-director of the Massachusetts school's Russia and Eurasia Program.

Miller said threatening to cut off major Russian banks from the U.S. financial system would certainly have more bite.

"It's a communications platform, not a financial payments system," Adam Smith, an international lawyer who focuses on international trade and worked in the Obama administration, told CBS News. "If you remove Russia from SWIFT, you're removing them from a key artery of finance, but they can use pre-SWIFT tools like telephone, telex or email to engage in bank-to-bank transactions."

The United States and Germany would stand to lose the most if Russia were disconnected from SWIFT, because banks in those two countries most frequently use SWIFT to communicate with Russian banks, Shagina, the international sanctions expert, wrote in the Carnegie Moscow Center article.

For Germany and Italy, it's what SWIFT is used to pay for that would pose problems if Russia is cut out.

"Both Germany and Italy are very heavily dependent on imported gas from Russia. So comprehensive sanctions against Russian banks or a blanket exclusion of the entire Russian financial system from SWIFT would mean that they couldn't pay their gas bills, " said Adam Tooze, a history professor at Columbia University in New York and director of the European Institute.

Zachariadis said it's not just Russia that would suffer by being cut out of SWIFT.

"But also all the other countries that transact with Russia, including a lot of the EU countries and other countries around the world who get a lot of their energy resources from Russia as well, and other businesses that transact with Russian organizations."

From Strategy Page, when Europe cuts off its energy imports Russia will have major economic problems with income.  https://strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20220225.aspx

Russia is now in damage-control mode because Western trading partners are more united and willing to impose more economic sanctions than expected. The Belarus and Ukraine pipelines will continue to supply natural gas to Europe as well as Belarus and Ukraine. If Russia does manage to occupy all of Ukraine that could see an end to all natural gas exports to Europe. Oil and natural gas account for 60 percent of Russian exports and nearly half the government budget. Europe has been a major customer, obtaining 40 percent of its heating fuel from Russia. Even before 2014, growing dependence on Russian natural gas was seen as risky. Germany insisted the Russian were dependable and rational. Germany began having second thoughts after 2014, now agrees with the Russia critics and is ending all trade with Russia because of the invasion.

As energy is in high demand in Europe for winter heating currently and Germany has denuclearized its energy sources as well as the US and Canada greatly limiting oil production this sanction is at least a few weeks away. 
It will take time for Russia be able to increase its volume of energy exports to friendly countries and time to set up alternative banking arrangements.  With loss of life, and maiming of soldiers, combined with a decline in living standards for ordinary Russians, Putin will have significant domestic problems.

[Uberhaus]

fire up your CMANO!

https://news.usni.org/2022/02/24/russian-navy-masses-16-warships-near-syria

More threatening behaviour.  Strategypage states how the Israelis deal with this:  https://strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20220222.aspx 

Israel believes the Russians respect power and exploit weakness. Israel points to how they and Russia have become more open about their cooperation in Syria, and elsewhere in the region...
Russia is supposed to be protecting Syria from rebels and foreign interference. Because of Israeli military superiority and willingness to humiliate Russia if they try to stop Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria, the Russians talk but do not act. Russia has another vulnerability when it comes to Israel and that is continued access to Israeli technology. Israel has halted some of that cooperation in the past when Russia caused problems for Israel. The Israelis believe Russia is a bully that makes threats they cannot follow through on. Russia has learned that Israel does not back down from threats,

Just out of curiousity, what are the other fleets up to?  Especially the one currently floating outside of Irish waters?

[Gusington]

^Very interesting. I don't know anything about relations between Israel and Russia.

[Con]

I am guessing the Javelin Manufacturing plant is putting on a third shift right about now
Con

[Uberhaus]

That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.

  So theoretically nation X or Y could say "We're having some unrest and we need to join NATO."  Or Turkey could say, "We're having some unrest, we need to exclude Russian ships from the straits."

No, nation X can't state that they will join NATO with unrest.  NATO will not accept countries with internal conflict; Putin has exploited this several times by stirring up unrest in the Donbas and South Assetia/Abkhazia.  Kazakhistan is firmly in Putin's corner though after Russia supplied troops to keep the president in power.  https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-deadly-kazakh-chaos-looks-like-a-coup-to-me  This author has however, lost my respect, amongst others, after continually stating that Russia would not invade Ukraine and was bluffing.

As for Turkey, shutting down the Dardanelles to all Russian traffic, which they can easily do, they say they won't but I hope they change their minds.

[GDS_Starfury]

I am guessing the Javelin Manufacturing plant is putting on a third shift right about now
Con

Raytheon stock was up 4% at yesterdays close.  8)

[Uberhaus]

^Very interesting. I don't know anything about relations between Israel and Russia.

Haaretz and Jerusalem Post have good articles about the cultural connections as well as the antagonisms.