Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

[steve58]

That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.

  So theoretically nation X or Y could say "We're having some unrest and we need to join NATO."  Or Turkey could say, "We're having some unrest, we need to exclude Russian ships from the straits."

No, nation X can't state that they will join NATO with unrest.  NATO will not accept countries with internal conflict; Putin has exploited this several times by stirring up unrest in the Donbas and South Assetia/Abkhazia.  Kazakhistan is firmly in Putin's corner though after Russia supplied troops to keep the president in power.  https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-deadly-kazakh-chaos-looks-like-a-coup-to-me  This author has however, lost my respect, amongst others, after continually stating that Russia would not invade Ukraine and was bluffing.

As for Turkey, shutting down the Dardanelles to all Russian traffic, which they can easily do, they say they won't but I hope they change their minds.

Closing the Dardanelles might help, but it sounds like Russia could still bring in some assets.

Even if Turkey decided to invoke the relevant clauses in the Montreux treaty, the international instrument that governs ship traffic through the Straits, Russian warships would have the right to pass the Bosphorus once, on a final one-way voyage back to their Black Sea bases, Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters on Friday.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/insight/turkey-set-to-reject-ukraine-s-call-to-close-bosphorus-to-russia/2-1-1174883

[GDS_Starfury]

new to the twitter bs so trying to link a video

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497559125416361987

ok, close enough.  the fact that russian crews are already improvising stand off turret protection is very telling to me.
more NLAWs and Javs!

[Uberhaus]

the sunroofs predate the invasion but the sandbags on top of them are new, so they may not work as well the Russians hoped.

Also more Stingers, more Groms

As for a one way sail for Russian warships.  BON VOYAGEE!  Can't tell from the article if this limit would apply to Russian commercial interests, especially if flying flag of convenience.  Now that would be painful.

[GDS_Starfury]

would sandbags be enough of a standoff distance to negate a tandem warhead?

[MikeGER]

new to the twitter bs so trying to link a video

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497559125416361987

ok, close enough.  the fact that russian crews are already improvising stand off turret protection is very telling to me.
more NLAWs and Javs!

after pussyfooting around for a few days the left-green German govornment donates 500 Stinger and 1000 (probaboy) Fausts to the Ukraine,  finally  :clap:

[Gusington]

How are all these weapons getting into Ukraine now? Smuggled in on the ground in trucks, etc.?

Would the Russians be insane enough to try to stop the flow?

[GDS_Starfury]

theyll just be driven over the border.  no need to smuggle a damn thing.
today there are JSTAR and AWACS orbiting and watching everything.  the same 3 tanker shuffle continues and I really doubt theyre giving fuel to Emirates 747s.  I almost want putin to make a go at an EU supply convoy.  >:D

[Pete Dero]

To ensure the population gets the 'right' information :

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60533083

Russia has blocked Twitter and threatened to do the same with Facebook after a clash over "censorship".

Russia's communications regulator Roskomnadzor accused Facebook of violating "the rights and freedoms of Russian citizens".
The actions follow Russia's attack on Ukraine with many videos and images of the invasion going viral on social media.

[MengJiao]

That is good news from Kazakhstan but may be due to the recent unrest and not outright defiance of Putin.

  So theoretically nation X or Y could say "We're having some unrest and we need to join NATO."  Or Turkey could say, "We're having some unrest, we need to exclude Russian ships from the straits."

   Spain got into NATO despite the fact that in the early 1980s they still figured they needed 250,000 troops to make sure Madrid didn't do anything...like unrest.

Meanwhile:

Russian defense ministry orders troops to resume offensive "in all directions," according to statement

  This must be pathetic plan 4b "wander in all directions"  They couldn't even take Cherniyiv (?) on the eastern approach to Kiev.  I think this is going to leave the Russians with only the
"Kill everybody" plan with big thermobaric bombs, at which point NATO might just decide they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by stopping the Russians by opening attacks on all the
stuff the Russians have piled up in Belarus...miles and miles of helicopters lined up etc. etc. sinking the Russian navy etc. etc.

[Uberhaus]

would sandbags be enough of a standoff distance to negate a tandem warhead?

Don't know about the sandbags, but they're definitely not RHA.  The metal structure on the turret is meant to detonate the 1st charge one metre from the turret, so it burns out.  While the 2nd charge hits ERA.  It's a dollar store APS and hopefully isn't working.  Discussed at about 1:20 in video.

Sorry sunvisors not sunroofs.  Maybe the commander can be given a brolly.

[Pete Dero]

CNN footage shows a TOS-1 (or TOS-1A),  able to shoot thermobaric rockets,  being deployed near the Ukrainian border : https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1497519335350452231

Horrific weapon in action

[Uberhaus]

How are all these weapons getting into Ukraine now? Smuggled in on the ground in trucks, etc.?

Would the Russians be insane enough to try to stop the flow?

They'll whine and threaten but to stop the flow and the losses they'll have to eventually move on Lviv and the western parts of Ukraine.   Beyond that time, they will have to be smuggled in, depending on political will.

[bobarossa]

Retired General Wesley Clark just stated on TV that those 1000 antitank missiles are a great start but due to delivery, deployment and usage problems will probably only result in 20 to 40 tank losses.  Way less than I was expecting. 

[Jarhead0331]

Russian Casualties as of today.

    14 aircraft (13 attackers (SU-25 and other CAS) and 1 IL-76)
    8 helicopters
    102 tanks
    536 armored cars and APCs
    15 artillery pieces
    1 Buk air defense system
    3500 soldiers (dead, captured, wounded)