Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

CNN footage shows a TOS-1 (or TOS-1A),  able to shoot thermobaric rockets,  being deployed near the Ukrainian border : https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1497519335350452231

Horrific weapon in action

General Lewis-Mackenzie who commanded the UN forces in Sarajevo, wrote that with tv coverage the populations of countries were becoming inured to war and suffering, and that only with the more and more graphic coverage were they moved to any action.  If the Russians are stupid enough to use this against a civilian population, the don't interfere demographics in countries will drop dramatically.

[Gusington]

Are Ukrainian casualty numbers available anywhere?

[GDS_Starfury]

sky news last reported about 200 civilians killed so far.

[Uberhaus]

Are Ukrainian casualty numbers available anywhere?

They'll be unreliable, especially with the Russians white washing them in the areas they control.  Historically, the Soviets hid the dead from the Holodmor in Ukraine, and hid the dead from the Katyn massacre in Poland for decades.  My friends great uncle, a medical officer, was murdered in Katyn by the NKVD.
The BBC reports that there are kill lists planned throughout Ukraine.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60472889

[Con]

This look bonkers - Ukrainian civilians checking their govt issued AK47s prior to defending Kyiv tonight - the old lady looks the most badass out of all of them.

[Gusington]

My own daughters just told me the story about the Ghost of Kiev...now I know it's for real.

[solops]

Russian Casualties as of today.

    14 aircraft (13 attackers (SU-25 and other CAS) and 1 IL-76)
    8 helicopters
    102 tanks
    536 armored cars and APCs
    15 artillery pieces
    1 Buk air defense system
    3500 soldiers (dead, captured, wounded)

JH, where did the stats come from? I have not been able to find anything. Indeed, Grogheads seems to be one of the best info collation points.

[ComradeP]

I saw some of those stats earlier today in Ukrainian MOD estimates, but as was mentioned before: there's a lot of FOW as to the actual losses.

What surprises me is that, even though there are numerous videos of fighting and live streams for several Ukrainian cities, it's very difficult to piece together where the frontlines are.

You would expect that, as most people have smartphones with internet access, even with rumours and false information the overall picture should be fairly clear. Trying to figure out where troops are fighting currently is not aided by the habit of media to mention the nearest city whilst fighting might occur 20 miles away.

[SirAndrewD]

What surprises me is that, even though there are numerous videos of fighting and live streams for several Ukrainian cities, it's very difficult to piece together where the frontlines are.

A few maps of the front came out today.

BBC has a solid one...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

[MengJiao]

I saw some of those stats earlier today in Ukrainian MOD estimates, but as was mentioned before: there's a lot of FOW as to the actual losses.

What surprises me is that, even though there are numerous videos of fighting and live streams for several Ukrainian cities, it's very difficult to piece together where the frontlines are.

You would expect that, as most people have smartphones with internet access, even with rumours and false information the overall picture should be fairly clear. Trying to figure out where troops are fighting currently is not aided by the habit of media to mention the nearest city whilst fighting might occur 20 miles away.

  Well, the news media has some puzzling ideas about how to represent this war.  Lots of "human interest" ...counting up each casualty (which is going to be rough when they hit the 10s of thousands as they probably will by tomorrow or the next day).  The first thermobaric bomb might have just gone off SW of Kiev...that would be blowing something out of the way to finally isolate Kiev from the south.  Focusing on one or two random missile hits...not very helpful.

   Then the fact that the Russians don't quite exactly seem to have a coherent plan and are driving around where ever they can and bombarding where they can't advance and not taking any airfields intact and taking Chernobl (seems pointless) and taking cities for no reason (Sumy, Kherson?) is just even more confusing.  It's like confusion reigns from all sides.

[SirAndrewD]

ISW current map...

Image is too large to imbed...

https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTFeb25%2C2022_0.png

[Uberhaus]

This look bonkers - Ukrainian civilians checking their govt issued AK47s prior to defending Kyiv tonight - the old lady looks the most badass out of all of them.

The older men will likely be veterans of Afghanistan.  Russia's population was still recovering from the losses of the Second World War, and as another historic unfairness, mostly Ukrainians were sent.  As for the women, they know a lot; my friend's mom can field strip a Kalashnikov.

[SirAndrewD]

   Then the fact that the Russians don't quite exactly seem to have a coherent plan and are driving around where ever they can and bombarding where they can't advance and not taking any airfields intact and taking Chernobl (seems pointless) and taking cities for no reason (Sumy, Kherson?) is just even more confusing.  It's like confusion reigns from all sides.

It seems like they have a plan, they're just not executing it well. 

The invasion has for Axes of advance. 

The primary thrust came from Belarus and has the objective of taking Kyiv and advancing down the Dniepr.  They seem to have tried to support this thrust with airborne assaults that tried to quickly encircle the capital.  The airborne strikes failed, and the armor advance was slowed in the Oblon district.  This thrust took Chernobyl along its axis. 

It looks like they made a mistake here by using a lot of Eastern Military District troops to guard the flanks of the advance and there are reports they're suffering pretty heavy casualties. 

Second Thrust west of Kharkiv is a wide front that looks to be driving down to take the coast of the Dnieper and link with the Belarus front.  It looks like it's also made limited headway. 

Third and fourth are coming from the Donbas and Crimea and seem to have to goal of taking Mariupol and Odesa and cutting off the Black Sea.   No doubt by now the Russians expected both of those cities to have fallen or cut off but, again, they're holding. 

So, it seems they have a coherent strategy that is likely hand in hand with their war goals, that is to seize the coast and everything east of the Dneiper and take Kyiv. 

The reasons for poor execition abound but the word hubris is being used liberally.

[Atilla60]

What's Putin's end game?

Here's some theories.

[MengJiao]

   Then the fact that the Russians don't quite exactly seem to have a coherent plan and are driving around where ever they can and bombarding where they can't advance and not taking any airfields intact and taking Chernobl (seems pointless) and taking cities for no reason (Sumy, Kherson?) is just even more confusing.  It's like confusion reigns from all sides.

It seems like they have a plan, they're just not executing it well. 

The invasion has for Axes of advance. 

The primary thrust came from Belarus and has the objective of taking Kyiv and advancing down the Dniepr.  They seem to have tried to support this thrust with airborne assaults that tried to quickly encircle the capital.  The airborne strikes failed, and the armor advance was slowed in the Oblon district.  This thrust took Chernobyl along its axis. 

It looks like they made a mistake here by using a lot of Eastern Military District troops to guard the flanks of the advance and there are reports they're suffering pretty heavy casualties. 

Second Thrust west of Kharkiv is a wide front that looks to be driving down to take the coast of the Dnieper and link with the Belarus front.  It looks like it's also made limited headway. 

Third and fourth are coming from the Donbas and Crimea and seem to have to goal of taking Mariupol and Odesa and cutting off the Black Sea.   No doubt by now the Russians expected both of those cities to have fallen or cut off but, again, they're holding. 

So, it seems they have a coherent strategy that is likely hand in hand with their war goals, that is to seize the coast and everything east of the Dneiper and take Kyiv. 

The reasons for poor execition abound but the word hubris is being used liberally.

  Well, Mariupol is holding and supposedly the Russians have lost a lot of tanks there even after probably the most massive artillery barrages in the war so far.  Has Odessa even been attacked?
The Offensive (or thrust?) around Kharkov seems either kind of tentative or poorly supported or to suffer from "hubris" anyway it doesn't seem to have gotten anywhere.  I'm not sure what is happening to rht Thrust out of the Crimea, but it doesn't seem to be developing.  That leaves the attack on Kiev as the only drive that's going anywhere at the moment that we have any information about and it looks like the Russians will have Kiev isolated pretty soon.  And then what?  The war just goes on for however long it takes to get Odessa, Maripol and Kharkov?  Then it stops?  And then the remainder of the Ukraine joins NATO?