Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

^^^ dont see that happening

[GDS_Starfury]

the NATO E-3 is now hugging the border doing figure 8s.  up until now they were kept west of Warsaw.

[MengJiao]

I don't think it will become "world war 3", as outside of Europe and NATO member states other countries have no ability or reason to intervene in any upcoming escalation.

The exception would be China, should it think it would be a good time to make a move on Taiwan.

However, a world war requires most of the countries in the world to be at war and fighting across the world and after decolonization that is an unlikely event.

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It's curious that even though nuclear weapons have become more and more lethal with each generation, the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons waiting for someone to push the button doesn't cause alarm in the general public like it did during the Cold War. Putin might be the first to show just how naive that was.

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The performance of the Russian army is surprisingly poor. Though I understand why you could point to logistics, they're still operating within 100-200 kilometres of the Russian border against an enemy with little to no means of interdicting movements in Russia. It's hard to tell if Russian vehicles running out of fuel are isolated incidents, perhaps caused by moving beyond the initial objectives, or mismanagement of logistics.

  I don't know.  The Russian army did what it was supposed to in order to set up a political situation where Zelensky learns to play ball and become a crony.  Putin might get exactly what I think he
really wanted -- a situation where the Ukraine is kind of like a large and improved Belarus.  Putin has kept all the totally murderous stuff off the board for now, and if Zelensky
can manage to seem like a good crony we may be out of the woods yet (to drift even farther into American slang).

[Pete Dero]

It's curious that even though nuclear weapons have become more and more lethal with each generation, the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons waiting for someone to push the button doesn't cause alarm in the general public like it did during the Cold War.

Very weird seeing Carnival (Mardi Gras) celebrations going on today.

Well...maybe Belarus will provide some kind of answer soon.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html

Belarusian special forces are loading onto airplanes in preparation for an air assault on Kyiv in what would be a widening of the conflict and a declaration of war on Ukraine by dictator Alexander Lukashenko, military sources have claimed.

Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly learned from within Belarus that 'special ops' troops have been spotted loading up planes for a major attack.

[MengJiao]

^^^ dont see that happening

   Well, it does seem unlikely if you read Putin as a complete nut, but he does look more composed if you look more at what he implies and less at what he says:
1) he legitimized those areas he set up in 2014 just before he attacked
2) implying that he would accept some Belarus-style solution for the rest of the Ukraine
3) he tossed in the Russian army just in case the Ukrainian army wanted to leave the whole thing to the politicians
4) pretended that Zelensky was the problem
5) and now --if Zelensky can play ball -- presto!  A big happy Belarus-style Ukraine! and no NATO and no END OF THE WORLD

[MengJiao]

It's curious that even though nuclear weapons have become more and more lethal with each generation, the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons waiting for someone to push the button doesn't cause alarm in the general public like it did during the Cold War.

Very weird seeing Carnival (Mardi Gras) celebrations going on today.

Well...maybe Belarus will provide some kind of answer soon.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557221/Ukraine-war-Belarus-poised-declare-war-special-forces-loaded-planes-in.html

Belarusian special forces are loading onto airplanes in preparation for an air assault on Kyiv in what would be a widening of the conflict and a declaration of war on Ukraine by dictator Alexander Lukashenko, military sources have claimed.

Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly learned from within Belarus that 'special ops' troops have been spotted loading up planes for a major attack.

  Oops.  Well, I guess we are well into plan B and heading for worse.  I guess Putin is as nutty as everyone suspects.

[ComradeP]

Zelensky can't really afford to do that. Ukraine is still struggling with corruption and other issues and prior to the war Zelensky didn't make a good impression. I don't think he will become Putins patsy even if he's only acting.

Nuclear deterrence has a number of weaknesses and I'm hoping this will not be the time when two of them will appear:

1) MAD and deterrence in general depends on both parties caring about preventing nuclear destruction. 1 nuclear weapon is still enough to cause immense devastation.

2) If a single, or a few, nuclear weapons are used, there's not really any option of a "partial response" if any further launches can't be prevented.

If Putin would give the order to fire the missiles and the crew of 1 vehicle, sub or silo does so, NATO and the rest of the world doesn't really have a lot of options to deal with that. In order to prevent additional launches, the entire nuclear arsenal of Russia would need to be neutralized in some way. I don't see how that would happen.

[GDS_Starfury]

oh I see exactly how it would happen and thats the problem.

[MikeGER]

There is a Plan C
When I read between the lines of Baltic states and Polands diplomats and witness the 180 degree change  of left-green chancellor Scholz view, after those diplomats briefed him yesterday eve ...and when i listen to his speech today
The Plan is to rebuild a USSR 2.0 

Putins foundational assumption for his plan is that his (nuclear) deterrence effect against NATO is stronger than that of the USA, UK and France against him in a standoff.

Nato will blink first.  And not risk the annhilation of NYC, DC , London and Paris just for the right of some Baltics to have a democratic vote and Netflix instead of RT 

He is sure that in a conflict with Nato, Nato will surly fight firce until their limit resources in the TOO are used up. But Nato will contain the conflict strictly to the Baltic/North Europian theater... USA (and other nations depending on their military capabilities) will not on day-0 blast his precious satellites out of the sky, sink all the ballistic missile subs that are constantly traced, sink his North Sea and Mediterranean fleet  (which is unavoidable to resupply Europe), deep strike into Russia at airfields, and even go for his mobile missile launchers,  maybe even strike his silos (without using nukes warheads of course), open up a second front on the Pacific side, etc 

He calculates he just have to soak up the huge but limited losses in fighters, tanks and men (which he sees as a neccesary sacrifice anyway) to finally get his will. 

[JasonPratt]

Ah, snorkel, thanks!

re ComradeP: at this point, WW3 is more of a handy nickname for a shooting war between nuclear foes which could and maybe does escalate into a nuclear exchange which affects other nations in the world.

They don't have to fight to take warscale casualties from the results.

Warscale casualties across the world due to a war, is something that hasn't happened since WW2, therefore "World War 3".

[MengJiao]

Zelensky can't really afford to do that. Ukraine is still struggling with corruption and other issues and prior to the war Zelensky didn't make a good impression. I don't think he will become Putin's patsy even if he's only acting.

Nuclear deterrence has a number of weaknesses and I'm hoping this will not be the time when two of them will appear:

1) MAD and deterrence in general depends on both parties caring about preventing nuclear destruction. 1 nuclear weapon is still enough to cause immense devastation.

2) If a single, or a few, nuclear weapons are used, there's not really any option of a "partial response" if any further launches can't be prevented.

If Putin would give the order to fire the missiles and the crew of 1 vehicle, sub or silo does so, NATO and the rest of the world doesn't really have a lot of options to deal with that. In order to prevent additional launches, the entire nuclear arsenal of Russia would need to be neutralized in some way. I don't see how that would happen.

Well, the talks seem serious.  It's possible that Zelensky can offer enough guarantees for Putin to declare victory and play ball with Zelensky.  Presumably the partial ceasefire on the Belarus front will
evolve into a ceasefire elsewhere and Russia will get a quasi-Belarusian Ukraine and the war will be on hold for a while:


Aleksander Lukashenko has taken responsibility for ensuring that all planes, helicopters and missiles stationed on the Belarusian territory will remain on the ground during the Ukrainian delegation's travel, meeting and return," the office continued.



 

[GDS_Starfury]

I feel like russia wants to waste time while it "talks" as it sorts its logistics out

[Uberhaus]

If the talks in Chernobyl involve further loss of Ukranian territory don't expect anything of them.  The Russians will threaten the Ukranians with escalation of force but the Ukranians know that the world is on their side and will make life more miserable in Russia.
As to nuclear threats, Putin may be obsessed with Ukraine but he is cogent enough to realise that use of hypersonic weapons can be met with slower submarine launched or silo launched weapons.  Even if he doesn't care at all about the Russian people (he does to some degree), the oligarchs who live very comfortably will not care to go along with a Russian 'Goetterdaemmerung".
A more realistic threat because it is less attributable are cyberattacks.  However, the Russians (and Chechens) are being embarassed here having there government websites being hacked by Anonymous.  Anonymous are also threatening to expose Russian corruption at all levels to the Russian people.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/entertainment/tv/news/anonymous-hacker-collective-takes-credit-for-cyberattacks-against-russian-government/ar-AAUmbAn?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

NATO isn't going to fight in any conventional way, not until a NATO country is attacked, and Russia is too busy right now to do that.  Now more Russians abroad are speaking out including oligarchs.  https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/war-dividing-russian-and-ukrainian-brothers-billionaire-fridman-says/ar-AAUnne0?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Billionaire Russian businessman Mikhail Fridman has told his staff in a letter that the conflict in Ukraine is driving a wedge between the two eastern Slav peoples of Russia and Ukraine who have been brothers for centuries.

The oligarchs are beginning to worry not just about their comfort but also their place in history.  There is definitely something off about Putin, but the oligarchs that have lasted accumulated their wealth and power through great shrewdness and greater survivor instincts, even if they lack in morality.  A few of them may have 'a loose screw' but not all of them.

[Uberhaus]

I feel like russia wants to waste time while it "talks" as it sorts its logistics out

And rush up reinforcements locally and any rapid deployment forces from Russia. 

Solops stated

I suspect that the Russkies need a a bit of a learning, evaluation and shakedown period

Some military leaders will be replaced, but most importantly Russian soldiers, who will have been awake for 72+hours will be resting.  They will be exhausted, especially if they were given modafinal (the modern replacement for amphetamines) to stay awake for the entire initial coup attempt.

[GDS_Starfury]

we're living in a god damn James Bond movie.