Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Jarhead0331]

my second line of defense consists of Jewish space lasers.

Do you have the red button to activate those?

[Skoop]

Nah brah no backing down.  If we concede Ukraine today then tomorrow it's Estonia and next week it's Poland.  Putin ends here in Ukraine.

...and if it ends in a wider confrontation with NATO involvement and the use of nuclear weapons, you think that's justifiable?

Destroying the planet with nukes is never justifiable, but what do we do ?  Give him all of Eastern Europe ?  Hell no bro I play enough poker to know when someone's bluffing.  He won't destroy the world for Ukraine it's a game of chicken and he's hoping we blink and back off first.  I said this last week, the ace in the hole was the will of the Ukrainians to fight, no one expected their motivation and passion.  I say we get out of our own way and ride the Ukrainians coat tails to a coup on Putin, there's growing dissent in Moscow and St. Petersburg, in 2 weeks that'll be full blown riots.

[ArizonaTank]

gallows humor and I get exactly where you're coming from.
I still think the oligarchs who control him wont let him go that far.  I keep turning the chess board around and try to look from their perspective.

I half expect to wake up one morning and see a monotone news reader on RT announcing that; "regrettably, Mr. Putin has resigned to spend more time with his yacht and money."

But at the same time, Putin could really be the madman with nuclear weapons that we have had nightmares about since the beginning of the nuclear era. What's to stop him saying; "give me Estonia or I nuke you." Very scary thoughts.

[GDS_Starfury]

just to sidetrack for a moment.
china has got to be thinking, fuck we really cant take taiwan back....
for them this was one hell of a weather balloon.

[Jarhead0331]

Nah brah no backing down.  If we concede Ukraine today then tomorrow it's Estonia and next week it's Poland.  Putin ends here in Ukraine.

...and if it ends in a wider confrontation with NATO involvement and the use of nuclear weapons, you think that's justifiable?

Destroying the planet with nukes is never justifiable, but what do we do ?  Give him all of Eastern Europe ?  Hell no bro I play enough poker to know when someone's bluffing.  He won't destroy the world for Ukraine it's a game of chicken and he's hoping we blink and back off first.  I said this last week, the ace in the hole was the will of the Ukrainians to fight, no one expected their motivation and passion.  I say we get out of our own way and ride the Ukrainians coat tails to a coup on Putin, there's growing dissent in Moscow and St. Petersburg, in 2 weeks that'll be full blown riots.

Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

The notion of an outgunned and outnumbered people defending their nation with bravery is very inspiring no doubt, and it is easy and enticing to speak strongly in favor of their defense at all costs. But the equation has changed with the threat of nuclear annihilation. Whether one thinks Putin is bluffing or not, it remains a very real possibility, and these are not odds that any country should be playing.

[GDS_Starfury]

Im not trying to confrontational but where is your line?
if not here then Poland?
what precedent needs to be set here and now.

[GDS_Starfury]

[Jarhead0331]

Im not trying to confrontational but where is your line?
if not here then Poland?
what precedent needs to be set here and now.

In the nuclear age, I'm not sure there is any answer to this question. Comparisons to Hitler, appeasement and World War II can only go so far. Nuclear weapons require an entirely different analysis and calculation. It is a totally different game, and as Joshua taught us, the only way to win is to not play.

[Con]

What is unknown is how the Russian nukes are controlled. Presumably they also have some safeguards built in case there was mental instability in the leader. But maybe not.

[Con]

Presuming and I am quite hopeful on this that the conflict remains conventional. My inner war nerd is quivering at the thought of all the books and analysis that are going to be written from this. From battle planning or lack of it to arms drones and atgm theories being proven or disproved.

[Jarhead0331]

What is unknown is how the Russian nukes are controlled. Presumably they also have some safeguards built in case there was mental instability in the leader. But maybe not.

Exactly...we don't really even know the details of their alert system. We believe they have something similar to our defense readiness conditions, but it is all unclear.

What i know is that I have very close Russian friends who have parents in St. Petersburg and the parents are in absolute panic and they swear that medieval things are happening to anybody who speaks out against Putin or the regime. They are convinced he has lost it completely.

[GDS_Starfury]

after all of the things Ive read in fiction and non-fiction I just stunned.
its like watching a car crash that youve seen before in slow motion.

[Jarhead0331]

after all of the things Ive read in fiction and non-fiction I just stunned.
its like watching a car crash that youve seen before in slow motion.

Yup. We are living in a Tom Clancy novel. For real.

[solops]

So...If I have nukes and I want something, not TOOO much of something, but enough...(my last territorial demand...pinky promise), all I have to do is act a bit aggressive followed by erratic and the world will let me have my way?

[Uberhaus]

For your reading pleasure:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60551140

Ukraine invasion: Would Putin press the nuclear button?

My superforecast for the evening is that I miss the Politburo. Zelensky may be threatened tommorow with tactical nuclear weapons, but would Putin use them especially so close to Russia?  Does it matter "if there is no Russia we don't need a planet"?
I'm no longer confident of past Russian examples of acting with restraint with nuclear weapons indicating restraint now.
If I get to have a choice though, it will be better to confront now rather than live in constant fear of nuclear annihilation all over again.

Slava Ukraini!