Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Jarhead0331]

So...If I have nukes and I want something, not TOOO much of something, but enough...(my last territorial demand...pinky promise), all I have to do is act a bit aggressive followed by erratic and the world will let me have my way?

You are completely simplifying the reality of the situation, which makes it extremely difficult to have a serious discussion about the strategic options, the potential benefits of risking a confrontation and the serious consequences of uncontrollable escalation. It's great to talk tough about standing up to dictators, but when poor leadership has already failed at deference and nuclear forces have been placed on high alert, I don't see what could possibly be so controversial about simply questioning whether Ukrainian sovereignty is worth risking civilization as we know it. 

If you think launching the largest conventional confrontation since WWII is just a "bit aggressive" and that threatening to use nuclear weapons in response to sanctions and material support while placing those nuclear forces on high alert is simply "erratic", then I'd have to say that you don't have a full grasp of the potential gravity of the situation. I wish it were as simple and straight forward as you suggest.

[solops]

JH, Nah, I get it all right. When we look back through history we see many wars fought over trivial things. And we see wars started after a series of build-up events. And we see wars started apparently by accident. I wonder how many of the accidental wars and wars over "trivial" events were actually one side deciding they weren't willing to put off the inevitable as their enemy got stronger? The real question here is 'Is Putin ever going to stop?' Is there another way to stop him (coup, assassination, etc.)? If the answer is no, then we need to push back now. I don't mean join the war, I mean supply the Ukranians, beef up Eastern Europe and then if he wants to throw the first rock, then so be it. Better now than after he swallows several more victims.  I think there may be other options, but the public is kept in the dark too much for us to be able to evaluate them properly. Given what we know, I am in favor of drawing a line now, partly because it is the right, moral thing to do and I think it is the smart thing, too. If the powers that be want to share enough to allow us to evaluate other options, then sure, I can get cold-blooded about sacrificing Ukraine. I doubt if that will happen, since our leaders like to hoard info. Sometimes that is smart and it is always a great for covering your ass. What we don't know won't bite them. But not knowing may induce us to pressure them into something foolish. Anyway, this all boils down to how reckless or unstable Putin is. Are we playing chicken with a nut or a gambler? And, it must be admitted, playing chicken with sane people on all sides does not always turn out well.

[SirAndrewD]

Belarus has announced that it is no longer "non-nuclear neutral" and will now host the deployment of Russian medium range nuclear weaponry in their territory.   

That's huge. 

Anyone that's been betting on Putin bluffing on anything has been taken to the cleaners thus far.

[solops]

And the observation that our leadership is incompetent is appropos and must be taken into account. It s very difficult to factor that into any course of action.

[Skoop]

I still say he's bluffing and the wavering from nuclear deployment is what he's betting on.  The Ukrainians have exposed the weakness of his conventional army.  Putin is a paper tiger with nukes....the nukes are all he has so he's waving them around gratuitously.  You really think he's going to blow up the world ?  Remember, if he launches, we launch and both sides die.

[ArizonaTank]

And the observation that our leadership is incompetent is appropos and must be taken into account. It s very difficult to factor that into any course of action.

Can we leave out a discussion of politics. As we know, that doesn't get us very far.

[SirAndrewD]

Willing to blow up the world?  I'd hope no sane man would be.

However, if he's as unhinged as some are saying, he might think he can get away with the use of nukes in a tactical battlefield role. 

And if he's well and truly unhinged, maybe further if it begins to look even worse for the Russian army. 

He's in a bad mess already.  A few military analysts have gone so far now to say that it's apparent to them that at this point the best explanation is that the Russian army is simply bad.  That's from leadership all the way down to the men on the ground. 

Images today of huge columns of Russian vehicles stretching over a kilometer, packed in and lined up on roads.  One analyst was frank "If that was against NATO every man in that column would be dead.  The only reason they're alive is that Ukraine troops aren't able to make them pay for that mistake".

I said before my biggest fear was that the Russians would bog down and Putin would start to have his military exposed as a paper tiger.  At that point I'm not sure what he'd do to try to steal a decisive victory.

[Skoop]

Here's some insight, in my naval action clan I have a member who is Ukrainian and a member who is Russian.

At the out break of war, the Ukrainian clan member posted in our discord "today Russia invaded my country, I go to fight for my country".  We haven't heard from him since.

The Russian guy is a teacher in St. Petersburg and is about our age of late 40s and you can tell he's a Putin hardliner.  I've been having some great debates over our discord over the last few days and it's been interesting hearing the other side.

Putin and hard liners are out for payback of 1989 and the embarrassment of the 90s.  Hardliners think gorbi sold out Russia and was a pussy.  Then in the 1990s when they wanted to be in nato and aligned with the west, instead they felt they were shunned and disgraced during the yeltsin years.  They feel the Poland and Estonia nato induction should never have been allowed and that's putins goal he's been planning since 2000 to reverse everything.  Hardliners always say what if Mexico aligned with Putin and Russian military were doing ops there.  I called bullshit on that cause we never dominated Mexico under an oppressive iron curtain like they did with Eastern Europe.  Easten Europe wanted protection and in the 90s nato obliged them....rightly so as the climate today.

[Skoop]

I know some of you guys are looking at this like the " guns of august " WWI run away train escalation and we need to stop this snowballing effect.

I see this more like stopping hitler at sudatenland vs Czechoslovakia or Poland, it's just complicated with nukes. 

[Con]

I think the end state will be on us faster that anticipated.

With the unprecedented drop in the ruble and the Russian banks preventing any selling of securities you are going to see enormous fiscal pressure brought onto the oligarchs. Putin was able to cow most of them in line and as long as they were all mostly coining money he could count on them to follow along (with a pointed lesson in polonium poisoning on being shot in the back to frighten any one who didn't want to follow his lead).

With so much financial pain now spread equally among the oligarchs it's no longer thunder dome economics (2 go in 1 comes out) any more. Now he has a bunch of pissed off barons and as any feudal lord knows that's  the time to be worried that your head will be put on a spike.

[JudgeDredd]

FYI, I changed the name of the thread as we have clearly moved beyond a buildup.

Some of the footage out there is amazing. The determination and courage on display by Ukrainian soldiers and citizens is positively inspiring.

Where do you see that footage? We're getting almost nothing in terms of actual fighting here in the UK. Mostly just reporterss reporting.

After the Gulf War, I thought coverage of wars had changed forever

[JudgeDredd]

Also - time for a boycott of FIFA? wan***s

[Jarhead0331]

FYI, I changed the name of the thread as we have clearly moved beyond a buildup.

Some of the footage out there is amazing. The determination and courage on display by Ukrainian soldiers and citizens is positively inspiring.

Where do you see that footage? We're getting almost nothing in terms of actual fighting here in the UK. Mostly just reporterss reporting.

After the Gulf War, I thought coverage of wars had changed forever

War leaks on YouTube and Reddit has a ton of stuff. I'll post more links and direct videos.

[MikeGER]

Where do you see that footage? We're getting almost nothing in terms of actual fighting here in the UK. Mostly just reporterss reporting.

go on twitter and monitor the hashtags #Ukraine and #Kyiv 

..well there  is a lot of bullshit and fakes so you have to sort it out all your self what is authentic and also current

most impresive thing ive seen so far was 2 APC in column stopping at an improvised roadblock in a city and were taken out with literally a rain of molotov cocktails from a crowd ... scene was filmed from bystanding  that crowd at grond level   

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497542372271394818

- edit-  but seams to be from 2014

[Pete Dero]

Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

I live 15k from NATO, EU and Swift headquarters so I want nothing more than that this madness ends.

The problem is that if you grant a mentally unstable guy his wishes, how can you be sure he doesn't ask for something more after that ?

To be clear : I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know anymore.