Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FlickJax]

Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

I live 15k from NATO, EU and Swift headquarters so I want nothing more than that this madness ends.

The problem is that if you grant a mentally unstable guy his wishes, how can you be sure he doesn't ask for something more after that ?

To be clear : I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know anymore.

The West is no longer squeaky clean, Trump was as corrupt as they come and our leader Boris is pretty awful too. Ofcourse Ukraine wasn't perfect but they were trying to go in the right direction.

Anyway for me this is totally sad on both sides and pretty pointless in a world where we already have so much to worry about.

[Yskonyn]

Reports of Switzerland being hesitant to back the EU sanctions against Russia/Putin causing frustration.
Switzerland has resorted to claiming its neutrality so far, but is under increasing pressure from the other EU members to get behind the sactions.
If not it could mean a serious hole in effectiveness as the country plays a key role in a large part of oligarch financial dealings.
We were talking about corruption?

[Anguille]

Reports of Switzerland being hesitant to back the EU sanctions against Russia/Putin causing frustration.
Switzerland has resorted to claiming its neutrality so far, but is under increasing pressure from the other EU members to get behind the sactions.
If not it could mean a serious hole in effectiveness as the country plays a key role in a large part of oligarch financial dealings.
We were talking about corruption?

The decision to fully back up the sanctions should be taken today.

[Jarhead0331]

Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

I live 15k from NATO, EU and Swift headquarters so I want nothing more than that this madness ends.

The problem is that if you grant a mentally unstable guy his wishes, how can you be sure he doesn't ask for something more after that ?

To be clear : I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know anymore.

...and this is really what I am saying. That, in the nuclear age, in a conflict against the most heavily armed nuclear power, being led by an irrational and possibly unstable individual, I simply do not know the right answer and that is why it is critical that we ask all the right questions.  All rational political decisions are based upon an analysis of the costs and risks measured against the benefits and gains.

My concern when watching the news is that the majority of media sources are urging escalating US and NATO commitments without engaging in any such analysis. The general narrative is that Russia is bad, Putin is a maniac, Ukraine is a model of democracy that must be saved, etc.

Nobody really seems to be weighing the true risk of serious intervention or whether it is really in the interests of the world. If more people were factoring in the very real risk of nuclear holocaust, I don't think the decision to support Ukraine through direct military means would be so simple.

[MengJiao]

Dude...Ukraine is like one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. Even Zelensky, from what i understand, has jailed dissidents and political opponents...you're prepared to risk global thermonuclear war for that? Really? This is the country where you want to draw the line in the sand? It is madness.  You continue to base this position on the notion that Putin is playing a game while the growing evidence suggests he has become mentally unstable.

I live 15k from NATO, EU and Swift headquarters so I want nothing more than that this madness ends.

The problem is that if you grant a mentally unstable guy his wishes, how can you be sure he doesn't ask for something more after that ?

To be clear : I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know anymore.

...and this is really what I am saying. That, in the nuclear age, in a conflict against the most heavily armed nuclear power, being led by an irrational and possibly unstable individual, I simply do not know the right answer and that is why it is critical that we ask all the right questions.  All rational political decisions are based upon an analysis of the costs and risks measured against the benefits and gains.

My concern when watching the news is that the majority of media sources are urging escalating US and NATO commitments without engaging in any such analysis. The general narrative is that Russia is bad, Putin is a maniac, Ukraine is a model of democracy that must be saved, etc.

Nobody really seems to be weighing the true risk of serious intervention or whether it is really in the interests of the world. If more people were factoring in the very real risk of nuclear holocaust, I don't think the decision to support Ukraine through direct military means would be so simple.

  Sure, but how far can NATO back off before backing off begins to promote more escalation?  For example, suppose Turkey, a NATO member, closes the straits and Russian warships
cannot enter the med.  Given that might cause a major threat from Russia, should NATO deter itself and force Turkey to disregard the treaty from 1936 that says in time of war the
straits are to be closed?  A scenario that might ensue if Turkey does close the straits is that Russia says "OPen the straits or we nuke you."  At that point -- without any direct defense of
the Ukraine, things could begin to go from bad to worse pretty fast.  It might be better to push self-deterence onto the Russians by being as harsh about their attack on the Ukraine as possible
thus foreclosing the possbility of Russian threats against Turkey or anyone else.

[Anguille]

Reports of Switzerland being hesitant to back the EU sanctions against Russia/Putin causing frustration.
Switzerland has resorted to claiming its neutrality so far, but is under increasing pressure from the other EU members to get behind the sactions.
If not it could mean a serious hole in effectiveness as the country plays a key role in a large part of oligarch financial dealings.
We were talking about corruption?

Done. Switzerland takes over all the sanctions.

[MikeGER]

the threat need some comic relief ...





Sveden send weapons ...first time since 1939 

[Pete Dero]

Ukrainian Navy post on Facebook today :  "Regarding the Marines and border guards, who were taken captive by Russian occupiers on Snake Island... We are very happy to learn that our brothers are alive and well with them!"

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698897

[Gusington]

^Awesome - do they know they are world famous?

[Pete Dero]

^Awesome - do they know they are world famous?

No news on that, but being in Russian captivity I doubt they can find out.

[W8taminute]

This guy is good at giving the news. 

[Jarhead0331]

I'm still finding the updates on ISW pretty invaluable.

Here is the latest:

Key Takeaways February 27

    Russian President Vladimir Putin put Russia's nuclear and strategic missile forces, described as "deterrence forces," on their highest alert status in response to "aggressive statements in the West" on February 27.

    Russian forces likely conducted an operational pause on the Kyiv axis on February 26-27 to deploy additional supplies and forces forward. Russian forces will likely resume offensive operations against Kyiv in the next 24 hours.

    Russian forces largely conducted an operational pause on their current broad front of advance between Chernihiv and Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces continue to delay and inflict losses on the Russian advance but will likely not be able to halt further advances if the Kremlin commits additional reserves.

    Russian forces entered the city of Kharkiv for the first time on February 27 but remain unlikely to take the city without the use of heavier firepower.

    Russian forces have encircled Mariupol from the west and began initial assaults on the city. Russian forces have not made any major territorial gains from the east in Donbas after four days of fighting. Russian forces likely intend to pin Ukrainian forces in place on the line of contact to enable Russian forces breaking out of Crimea to isolate them.

    Russian forces continued to advance north from Crimea towards Zaprozhia and, in conjunction with Russian advances on Mariupol, threaten to isolate Ukrainian forces on the line of contact in Donbas if they do not withdraw.

    Russian forces failed to seize Kherson after Ukrainian counterattacks reclaimed it on February 26. An unknown concentration of Russian forces remains on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and threatens Mikolayiv, however.

    Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine's successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.

    The Belarusian government is setting information and legal conditions to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine and the imminent deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus as of February 27.

    US and allied sanctions against Russian banking will likely crush Russian foreign currency reserves, depleting the value of the ruble and risking Russian hyperinflation.

    The European Union announced direct military aid to Ukraine for the first time in EU history on February 27.

    Germany announced a dramatic reorientation of its foreign policy to mitigate the threat that Russia poses to Germany and its allies. Germany will prioritize military spending and energy independence despite short-term economic costs.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-10

[ArizonaTank]

...

My concern when watching the news is that the majority of media sources are urging escalating US and NATO commitments without engaging in any such analysis. The general narrative is that Russia is bad, Putin is a maniac, Ukraine is a model of democracy that must be saved, etc.

Nobody really seems to be weighing the true risk of serious intervention or whether it is really in the interests of the world. If more people were factoring in the very real risk of nuclear holocaust, I don't think the decision to support Ukraine through direct military means would be so simple.

...

I agree that there is some hyperventilation going on in the media, particularly among the political entertainer class. Some of them can't resist scoring partisan jabs that I find particularly distasteful in this crisis.

Some examples:

Over the weekend, the media was on a "no fly zone" bandwagon. Folks who had no idea what they were talking about, were suddenly enamored with the idea of NATO clearing the skys. When NATO and the US administration threw cold water on that idea, some of the talking heads went on about how this decision was "weak." For me, the decision was regrettable, but very rational. Putin isn't Saddam Hussein, trying to enforce a "no-fly" zone would start WWIII.

This morning I saw some guy on a major news network going on about how there were still Americans trapped in Ukraine and nobody was doing anything about it. He then went on to score cheap political points talking about "weakness."  But frankly I'm glad we aren't going in there to get folks out. What is the US supposed to do? Send in SEAL teams to extract them? Talk about risking WWIII!

The good news in my mind is that I don't see this hyperventilation spilling over into leadership in the US, Europe or the other Allies. It's good to see the world coming together. It seems to me that the Allies are talking and working together before taking action. I think it is our only hope.

Who knows? Maybe even the Chinese will get tired of all this and offer Putin a nice cushy mansion in the scenic Nanling Mountains.

[Jarhead0331]

The good news in my mind is that I don't see this hyperventilation spilling over into leadership in the US, Europe or the other Allies. It's good to see the world coming together. It seems to me that the Allies are talking and working together before taking action. I think it is our only hope.

I agree that seeing old western alliances standing together is a good sign. However, the difference now as I perceive it, is that the US is not taking the lead on decisions that are being made and the EU at times appears to making decisions without traditional US leadership or approval.

For instance, EU states applied direct sanctions on Putin before the US imposed any. EU states have promised fighter aircraft to Ukraine and EU states have banned all Russian registered aircraft from entering their airspace.

One other element of this crisis that is very clearly noticeable is the shift in the global order. I don't think the US is calling the shots and the combined power and influence of Russia and China is definitely a very obvious challenge to US global primacy. Regardless of how this conflict turns out, I think we are going to be dealing with a very different global order in the coming years.

[ComradeP]

At least initially, the US was prepared to go beyond what the EU had in mind in terms of sanctions due to the EU's reliance on Russian natural resources.

At least in the Dutch media (I haven't been following sanctions coverage in other EU countries) the point was made clearly that the EU was as usual a little slow when it came to decision making. However, after that the EU rapidly started making its own decisions. I didn't expect that, to be honest.

-

There are many worrying aspects to nuclear weapons possibly being involved, some of which we discussed over the weekend, but if Russia nukes any part of the Ukraine and NATO, without any treaty or mandate to do so, responds by nuking Russia it will be NATO that starts a nuclear war, not Russia.

That's the Western dilemma: there's no obligation to defend Ukraine in any shape or form. That is, there were some "agreements" regarding Ukraine's security as an independent country but nobody cared when Russia annexed parts of the country after 2014.

That's why I'm a little surprised that, on the government level in a number of EU countries, decisions are made to send weapons to the Ukraine (in some cases from their own arsenal). In other words: various EU governments and in most cases NATO members are directly sending weapons to a country that Russia is now effectively at war with. I didn't really expect that either, I thought they would at least make private companies responsible or move everything to Poland first and have Poland make the delivery as the Poles don't really care anyway.

If Putin says: NATO countries are openly supplying weapons to a non-member state Russia's fighting with, he's entirely correct, and there the matter of not having any official mandate or treaty to do so can become an issue.

Now, of course we don't need Putin's support to do anything, but usually these things go by means of a treaty, mandate or some form of obligation to do so.