Russia's War Against Ukraine

[MengJiao]

I don't think some of these decisions are very rational, and they seem to be made mostly after public outrage.

  If not exactly rational, then pretty understandable: for decades and decades the Soviet Union and then the Russians kept up an insane level of threat against Europe.
Maybe they had their reasons, but you know after 50 years or more of rampaging around Europe (eg. East Germany, 1953, Hungary 1956, Czechoslavakia 1968) who cares?  if there
ever was a reason surely it is gone by now.  Anyway, so after decades and decades of worrying about the Russians in their various incarnations and with their various crony regimes,
the Russians finally blow it all, they crash with vast fanfare into a fourth-rate power and get massacred by the megaton.  Deranged with relief and happy to escape the massive anxiety of
decades of dread everybody pours weapons into Ukraine.  Not rational, but not just a matter of public outrage either.

[ComradeP]

I was born late in the 1980's, and I've never felt that dread. Nor have most of the people of my generation not living in Eastern Europe.

After Poland joined NATO in 1999, and with further expansion to both NATO and the EU, Russian aggression has been far removed from Western Europe.

Belarus potentially being absorbed by Russia changed some of that in 2020-2021, but after that things became more quiet.

I understand that older generations remember the very real threat of nuclear war and Soviets at the Elbe, but that was decades ago. I doubt many younger European citizens without an interest in history are even aware of the spectre of nuclear war haunting Europe during the Cold War.

Russia's conventional military threat to Western Europe has been limited since the Soviet Union ceased to exist.

[Gusington]

^Well I think that many in eastern Europe are feeling that dread now, so...welcome? This is what you missed x 100.

[MengJiao]

Russia's conventional military threat to Western Europe has been limited since the Soviet Union ceased to exist.

  You'd think so, but here they are seemingly doing something with their cronies and such and apparently real weapons in a quite large part of Eastern Europe.  Maybe its
irrational, but it seems like it might be safer for Western Europe to pour weapons into Ukraine and hope the threat stays there.

[solops]

Just because a Russian decision is "understandable" or "makes sense" from the Russian point of view does not mean that it is acceptable to us.

[Uberhaus]

Belarus has announced that it is no longer "non-nuclear neutral" and will now host the deployment of Russian medium range nuclear weaponry in their territory.   

This may be a violation of the Budapest Memorandum for Belorus depending on the exact verbiage of the treaty.  In regards to Ukraine, it has the right to "Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used"."  This will amount to nothing as Russia, as president of the Security Council has veto power over any UN actions, and if there was any chance of removal of a permanent member, we'd be hearing about it. 

Further politicians are talking about Putin's change from cold calculating rationality to not so, including inability to conceal anger. https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/in-washington-questions-about-vladimir-putins-mental-health-something-is-off/ar-AAUq7Mh?ocid=uxbndlbing   Former Secretary of State, Dr. Condoleeza Rice:

Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Fox News Sunday that she met with Putin at least a half a dozen times.

"He was always calculating and cold. But this is different. He seems erratic. There is an ever-deepening, delusional rendering of history, it was always a kind of victimology about what had happened to them, but now it goes back to blaming Lenin for the foundation of Kyiv ... in Ukraine,"

While in the same article, Lt. Gen. HR McMaster states the following:

H.R. McMaster, who served as National Security Adviser under Donald Trump, told CBS news that Putin was "not a rational actor".

He added that the Russian president was fearful about retaining control of the country.

"I think now he knows that all of that is at risk," McMaster added.

"The Russian military doesn't look very good right now, he does not look very powerful and this is going to jeopardize his ability to stay in power."

A dissentin opinion on Putin's state of mind is from a CIA officer: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-watchers-us-officials-putins-211412375.html

"What he's doing now is consistent with what he has done, and said he was always planning to do," said Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, who served two tours as a CIA operations officer in Moscow, the second as station chief.

"So while it may not seem rational or logical to us – and I agree with Condi (Rice) that it doesn't make sense – I would not say it's because he's changed," Mowatt-Larssen said. "I would say it's because he's decided to roll the dice and fulfill 20 years of thinking about doing this. This is what he has aspired to do since he took power to restore – not just a smaller Russia empire – but the Soviet Union.
...
"I think the danger of thinking it is that we're not understanding the nature of the source of Putin's continued obsession," Mowatt-Larssen said. "By focusing on theories that there's something wrong with Putin's mental state, it distracts us from understanding or grasping the darker reality, which is that the basis for what Putin is doing now has existed throughout his 20 years rule. He's just implementing the thinking and planning he's had ever since he came to power.""

[solops]

I think Putin's thinking is past the point where old agreements and understandings matter if they do not work in his favor. And his apparent disdain for public opinion makes things dicey indeed. Opposing opinion will only matter if it manifests internally and in sufficient quantity.

[Tripoli]

Good interview with Gen. David Petraeus

[Jarhead0331]

Just because a Russian decision is "understandable" or "makes sense" from the Russian point of view does not mean that it is acceptable to us.

Yes, but you have to understand the rationale of your enemy in order to formulate a strategy to confront them, or deescalate, particularly when nuclear weapons are involved. You have to consider the goals and perspective of your enemy in order to formulate an appropriate response.

To be willingly ignorant in this regard and to cast aside Russia's motivations is to act in blindness. Such a position is ludicrous.

[solops]

Just because a Russian decision is "understandable" or "makes sense" from the Russian point of view does not mean that it is acceptable to us.

Yes, but you have to understand the rationale of your enemy in order to formulate a strategy to confront them, or deescalate, particularly when nuclear weapons are involved. You have to consider the goals and perspective of your enemy in order to formulate an appropriate response.

To be willingly ignorant in this regard and to cast aside Russia's motivations is to act in blindness. Such a position is ludicrous.

Absolutely.

[Uberhaus]

Conventionally, peace talks have finished but will continue on the Poland-Belorus border "in a few days".  Zelensky has asked for a ceasefire, but when the UN votes on this, Russia will obviously veto this.

As has been mentioned, Belorus, will be sending in troops.  Russia will be cajoling its client states to provide high quality troops like VDV and spetsnaz for urban fighting.  Kazakhstan has stated it will not send troops, but President Tokayev will be under pressure to return Moscow's favour of sending 2000 troops in early January to put down a possible coup. https://www.dailypioneer.com/2022/columnists/kazakhstan--a-quarrel-among-thieves.html
As they will want to avoid sanctions that have hit Belorus, attempts will be made to disguise their identity.  Belorus has past and current internal turmoil which will limit the number of troops that can be sent.  https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/belarus-on-the-verge-of-sending-soldiers-into-ukraine-to-support-russia/ar-AAUq1gq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531 

The referendum sparked the biggest protests in months as thousands took to the streets in Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko has imposed a sweeping crackdown on dissent after a contested election challenged his grip on power in 2020.

About 800 people were arrested.

"Despite the numerous calls from destructive Telegram channels to destabilize the situation, which were spread by citizens outside the country, mass protests did not happen. Police officers were focused on prompt response and suppression of provocations," the interior ministry said.

The Russian army may have neglected its fuel logistics expecting to capture large quantities.  During the operational pause, a large fuel depot outside of Kiev was destroyed by rocket attack, denying its use to the Ukranians.  I think we will see an improvement in Russian tactics if only slight, most especially with an increase in firepower, mostly artillery and airpower, but still restraint from razing urban areas at least temporarily.  Ukranians will continue to bravely resist but there will be an increase in casualties, especially amongst untrained volunteers. 

More oligarchs outside of Russia are speaking out, with even Abramovich, owner of Chelsea FC, hoping to intervene.  https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/60552754 

Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich has been asked by Ukraine to help support their attempts to reach a "peaceful resolution" with Russia, the billionaire's spokesperson says.

[Jarhead0331]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a second round of negotiations with Russian officials will "take place in the near future." Russian and Ukrainian officials met for the first round of discussions Monday near the Belarus-Ukraine border.

"Ukrainian and Russian delegations held the first round of negotiations in the area of the Ukraine-Belarus border in order to find common ground for the fastest ceasefire. The parties discussed in detail a number of key topics on which they have prospects for finding mutually acceptable decisions," a memo from Zelenskyy says.

"A decision was made to immediately hold additional consultations in the capitals of the states. After that, the second round of negotiations of Ukrainian and Russian parties is to take place in the near future."

Quite frankly, I'm surprised there are "prospects for finding mutually acceptable decisions..." although this is somewhat vague and ambiguous.

Still, moderately reassuring that a ceasefire is possible.

[ComradeP]

BP, Norway's Equinor (formerly Statoil) and now Shell have declared that they will pull out of projects in Russia by selling their shares.

I'm cynical enough to think that this isn't purely due to Russia's actions in the Ukraine as if they can sell their shares the Russians can't carry out Medvedev's threat of nationalization. An increase in sanctions to cover fuel/energy suppliers also would no longer harm those oil companies.

[Gusington]

I wonder what percentage of Russian casualties so far have been very young, barely trained conscripts.

[al_infierno]

Ukrainian ambassador to the UN pretty much tells Putin to kill himself: "If he wants to kill himself, he doesn't need to use nuclear arsenal. He has to do what the guy in Berlin did in a bunker in May 1945"

At 1:47 he reads the final texts between a Russian soldier and his mother as he realized everything he was told was a lie.