Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Skoop]

I'm beginning to think if Belorussian or Kazakh reinforcements are what Putin's counting on, he woefully misjudged this situation.  It's like if we said, brah if we don't have those Canadian reinforcements our battle in fallujha is going to fail.  I'm starting to call emperor has no clothes on Putin.  Just sad he has nukes and we can't get at him.

[Uberhaus]

I'm beginning to think if Belorussian or Kazakh reinforcements are what Putin's counting on, he woefully misjudged this situation.  It's like if we said, brah if we don't have those Canadian reinforcements our battle in fallujha is going to fail.  I'm starting to call emperor has no clothes on Putin.  Just sad he has nukes and we can't get at him.

Canadians weren't in Iraq, but I'm sure you know that.  Canadians were dependent on the US  for support when the Taliban tried to drive them out of Panjwai.
About Kazakhstan troops it is speculation by me.  Putin will need troops to continue, but Kazakhstan has internal problems and also won't want to face sanctions.

Hopefully, by some miracle the Russians will agree to a cease-fire at the un or elsewhere, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Skoop]

I know it was more joke and I didn't want say Brits and offend any one, but the Brit's also fought well and probably would have been welcomed at fallujha.

[SirAndrewD]

The Ukrainian ambassador to the UN is a boss. 

Heck of a way to tell Putin to go kill himself.

[Sir Slash]

I'm wondering if the sucess the Ukrainians are having against the Russian Juggernaut won't be used in some way as justification by Putin for the invasion. He could easily claim that the reason he HAD TO invade was that the threat from Ukraine to Russia was evident, as in that his army was so badly damaged by the Ukrainians, and claim it was all really a necessary DEFENSIVE act after all.  :o  The many loses he can claim are because the West had armed the Ukraine with masses of it's very best weapons. And snuck-in secret fighting forces. It makes more sense than calling them all a bunch of, 'Drug-Addicts and Nazis'.

[MengJiao]

I'm wondering if the sucess the Ukrainians are having against the Russian Juggernaut won't be used in some way as justification by Putin for the invasion. He could easily claim that the reason he HAD TO invade was that the threat from Ukraine to Russia was evident, as in that his army was so badly damaged by the Ukrainians, and claim it was all really a necessary DEFENSIVE act after all.  :o  The many loses he can claim are because the West had armed the Ukraine with masses of it's very best weapons. And snuck-in secret fighting forces. It makes more sense than calling them all a bunch of, 'Drug-Addicts and Nazis'.

  Putin may have chosen the more senseless "drug-addicts and NAZIs" excuse precisely because it was senseless and he wanted to look crazy or at least like he was really his own crony.
I wanna see the Disney princess version of Princess Putin singing about how much he wants to be a crony "my own crony, a crony of my own that is me...(sustained note)"  My little Crony.

  Oh and:
The Kremlin ordered hundreds of Russian mercenaries in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, The Times of London reported.

Between 2,000 and 4,000 mercenaries with the Wagner Group — a private army believed to be owned by the Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin — entered Ukraine through Belarus in January, The Times reported.

Some 400 of them were deployed to Kyiv, while others were sent to the pro-Kremlin regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, the newspaper reported.

Zelenskyy's name tops the Wagner Group kill list of 23 senior Ukrainian figures that includes Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, The Times reported.

This has completely wrecked the last vestages of my simple childlike faith:  if you can't rely on 4000 assassins to take out even one of 23 people -- what is the world coming to!!!
What happened to all those innocent assassins?  Where are they now?  I want to be a crony I can call my own....

Plus:

The official said they were concerned with the "risks that come with a lack of Russian progress" especially the "use of rockets today and tube artillery — in Kyiv and Kharkiv — which risks being far more indiscriminate."
   

right, when you run out of cronies and assassins, time to bring up some serious artillery.  I'm sure the Russians can put some kind of real attack together, meanwhile its odd that their
lack of progress can't be seen as something the defenders can exploit, by say, digging in or laying mines or something.  Oh well.  I want to be my own crony.

Video: I don't think Putin knows what he wants to do, says fmr. U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul (CNBC)

Interesting.  Maybe he should give himself a clue?  If he were his own crony, he'd know just the thing to do!

[ArizonaTank]

Some interesting thoughts on the Russian slowdown for the logistically inclined. It suggests that Russian supply shortages may not be decisive (yet?).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russian-invasion-has-some-logistical-problems-that-doesn-t-mean-it-s-doomed/ar-AAUqzjR?ocid=msedgntp

The article also has a link to a Rand report on logistics in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Interesting charts in the back of the report show the number of trucks used to support Coalition forces. Most interesting is that the vast majority of trucks used were from contractors and the host nation (ie. not military trucks). Also it talks about how even in major operations that were otherwise textbook in execution, there were still severe fuel shortages at times due to a strained logistics chain.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG344.html

[DetCord]

There's a wider issue (pre/post WWII) when it comes to the Russian Armed Forces as a whole, be they the RKKA, the Soviet Armed Forces, or today's AFRF.

That being that they remain a third-rate army and have been since their inception, at least judging by this and previous campaigns throughout history. Their performance has only reinforced this obervation of them as an undisciplined, poorly led, poorly trained army of conscripts (primarily), utterly lacking in esprit de corps, who still suffer huge causalities simply maneuvering and or achieving or failing to achieve battlefield objectives. Don't forget that during WWII Stalin's policy was Soviet Policy, and Soviet Policy was to "Bury them with corpses." Given the large numbers of causalities the AFRF is taking in the Ukrainian AO, this policy still seems to be in effect.

[al_infierno]

Don't forget that during WWII Stalin's policy was Soviet Policy, and Soviet Policy was to "Bury them with corpses."

Probably a topic for another thread, but the idea of "Soviet human waves" winning WWII is a myth that's been thoroughly debunked by historians.  Stalin was certainly callous about the lives of Soviet troops, but this is a huge oversimplification of the cause of disproportionate Soviet casualties in WWII.

[steve58]

Ukraine officially applies to join the EU.

[Skoop]

1940 winter war in Finland comes to mind.  Boy how those Finns embarrassed Stalin's purged Red Army.

[Jarhead0331]

Ukraine officially applies to join the EU.

At first blush, this does not seem like a move that would result in a deescalation. However, I suppose there is a chance that Russia could tolerate EU membership as preferable to NATO membership, in which case a deal could be brokered whereby Ukraine joins the EU, but stays out of NATO?

[Uberhaus]

Unfortunately, the Russians do artillery well and their formations are artillery heavy.  They also have air supremacy over Ukraine.  The Ukrainians are incredibly brave defending their homeland but they will take terrible casualties as well.  City fighting will cause them heavy casualties, and they have the option to destroy cities.  Footage is coming in now of bomblets being used in Kharkiv. 

There is also another horrific option open to the Russians. Included in weapon and equipment shipments from the West are respirators.  Considering Russia's willingness to use nerve agents in the UK and for its client state Syria to use Sarin, Chlorine and Mustard gas against its own population, it will remain an option for the Russians.  I won't even speculate about the possibility of their use, only that CW will cause casualties amongst Russian conscripts so will restrict use.  This is not a possibilty as Russia destroyed its chemical weapons less than five years ago.  Respirators are for defence against tear gas.

At least a BBC expert has stated that there is no movement in Russian strategic readiness.

[SirAndrewD]

Probably a topic for another thread, but the idea of "Soviet human waves" winning WWII is a myth that's been thoroughly debunked by historians.  Stalin was certainly callous about the lives of Soviet troops, but this is a huge oversimplification of the cause of disproportionate Soviet casualties in WWII.

Pretty much.  As someone who studied close to Russian History professors I know that there's been way too much German account prejudice on the subject, or at least there was prior to the last roughly 20 years or so. 

For some specific works on it check out David Glantz's books. 

All of that said, I can't disagree with the assessment that the Russian army today looks to be a mess.  Time and again they're proving when on the battlefield the post WW2 Russian military is underperforming compared to it's perceived strength.

[MengJiao]

At least a BBC expert has stated that there is no movement in Russian strategic readiness.

  Right.  US Intell also reportedly sees no particular change in Russian nuke postures, but who knows, maybe they just relax some restrictions on their go codes or something, to
vritually quote Slim Pickens AKA Major Kong in Doctor Strangelove: