Russia's War Against Ukraine

[steve58]

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that European Union members will not lend fighter jets to the war in Ukraine, after days of mixed messages from officials across Europe.

"NATO allies provide different types of military support: material, anti-tank weapons, air defense systems and other types of military equipment for Ukraine, humanitarian aid and also financial support. But NATO is not to be part of the conflict," he said in a joint appearance with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the country's Łask Air Base.

The alliance "is not going to send the troops into Ukraine or move planes into Ukrainian airspace," Stoltenberg added.

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/03/01/no-eu-countries-arent-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/

[Gusington]

Can anyone suggest a good charity I could give to in support of Ukraine?

[MengJiao]

  Where the hell's Major Kong?

   "I don't think that anybody can really assess what's going on in the mind of Vladimir Putin right now," Romney told "CBS Evening News" anchor and managing editor
Norah O'Donnell on Tuesday. "The huge table with him sitting at one end is like Dr. Strangelove."

    The war room has a big round table in Dr. Strangelove.  Maybe Romney is thinking of the bedroom at the end of the universe in 2001 a space odyssey:

[al_infierno]

Can anyone suggest a good charity I could give to in support of Ukraine?

The Ukrainian gov't is accepting donations for military support - probably the most direct way to contribute: https://kyivindependent.com/national/heres-how-to-support-ukrainian-military/

The Ukrainian bank website in English: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

[Gusington]

^Thank you.

In other news, World of Tanks studio fires creative director who voiced support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine:

https://www.pcgamer.com/world-of-tanks-studio-fires-creative-director-who-voiced-support-for-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

[solops]

  Where the hell's Major Kong?

   "I don't think that anybody can really assess what's going on in the mind of Vladimir Putin right now," Romney told "CBS Evening News" anchor and managing editor
Norah O'Donnell on Tuesday. "The huge table with him sitting at one end is like Dr. Strangelove."

    The war room has a big round table in Dr. Strangelove.  Maybe Romney is thinking of the bedroom at the end of the universe in 2001 a space odyssey:

"No fighting in the War Room!"

[solops]

Everyone needs to watch Dr. Strangelove.
Now.
Several times.

[al_infierno]

Everyone needs to watch Dr. Strangelove.
Now.
Several times.

I was gonna see if I can sit through Threads tonight but it might be a tad much right this moment.

[SirAndrewD]

Everyone needs to watch Dr. Strangelove.
Now.
Several times.

Never heard of it.  Sounds spicy.

O:-)

(kidding of course)

[al_infierno]

Biden just announced he's closing U.S. airspace to Russia.

EDIT - Pleasantly surprised that Biden made a damn good speech about Ukraine to open the State of the Union, though I laughed at his George W. Bush-esque flubs like "Uranian" people.  I didn't know there's a war on Uranus now!   :hide:

[Gusington]

I would not recommend watching Threads right now. I just watched it about a month ago and it f'd me up before all of this got so severe. Watching it now will probably make you cry. Go re-watch Red Dawn.

[al_infierno]

The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.     https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

[bobarossa]

Wow, first scenes of Russian troops running into grocery stores to get food, now the major 'show' convoy is stalled for lack of gas.  I'm guessing a logistics general is cuurently on his way to Siberia or an early grave.

[SirAndrewD]

The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.     https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

That convoy is badly in need of some BRRRRRT.

[JasonPratt]

Which general said earlier that if that convoy had been fighting NATO, not a single troop there would have survived the first hour?

Anyway... as someone whose sources suggested the backfield logistics were insufficient for an actual invasion, I'm glad to see they were correct -- for now.

Sure, there can always be a pause to bring in new supplies (and give the troops a rest) -- that sort of thing happens to everyone during an invasion, even the best planned and supplied invasion possible. (I've reached Churchill's account of the first phase of Italy's invasion during WW2, in his memoirs, and sure enough after the first pulse onto the mainland there had to be a definite period of resupply before continuing -- which the Nazis took good opportunities with, as Churchill was worried they would, leading to a very nearly run defense against counterattack which almost threw the British and Americans back into the sea. And this was BEFORE Anzio!)

But you aren't supposed to have to shove your logistics up to their forming-up positions (so to speak) near the front line on an invasion, before sending them on to your invaders!

As we now suspect, Putin thought (for whatever reason) that the Ukrainian military would somehow just roll over after a nominal show of defense, which is why he was content to inflate his invasion force in the final days with green recruits but not with a proper backfield logistic support (of invasion strength, not merely for training those numbers). If all you're going to do is roll into the nation and occupy it, you don't need much more logistics than for training at the border -- arguably maybe even less, since you'll be taking control of your enemy's supplies without much hassle! What you do need is lots and lots of boots to hold the ground, but they don't need to be well-heeled mountain-class boots (so to speak).

Then opps, there's a real fight, and your maskirovka preparations to confuse your enemies about your intentions turn out to have an unexpectedly sharp double-edge. To continue the Dumbledore Gambit metaphor, you'd better have the power prepared to back up your multiple plots just in case!

Now he's learning he doesn't have the power ready to solidly win, if the Ukrainians put up a real fight, so he's falling back on what prepared power he does have: nuclear threats.

And meanwhile, he's having to shuttle fresh supplies through his ill-prepared fortified sectors (for want of a better term -- they still serve that purpose, though badly right now).

His preparations, and lack thereof, make sense when considered through an expectation that -- to quote a common saying of another famous invader of Ukraine -- all he has to do is kick down the door and the whole rotten structure will collapse.

But like that other famous invader of Ukraine, the whole rotten structure didn't collapse at all, after all.

Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn't have 16 Armies shoved up to its side of the border for at least a nominal defense plus another 70ish divisions on the way to the front from its backfield. The rotten doghouse didn't collapse when Putin kicked in the door, but it's still only a doghouse instead of a vast wooden castle: he may not be prepared to do a lot of real kicking, but it won't need as much real kicking either.  :-\

Fortunately, as with many wars, the enemy only has to be annoyed out of fighting for you to win.

Unfortunately for Putin, right now it's his own troops who are mostly being annoyed out of fighting! -- thus Putin's fallback upon forces that can't and don't get annoyed out of fighting for him. (Whether his officers in that corps are prepared to turn those keys, is hopefully another matter again for us all...)