Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

Which general said earlier that if that convoy had been fighting NATO, not a single troop there would have survived the first hour?

Petraeus. 

However, he also said, and I agree, that Russia would've never fought NATO like this. 

The Russians have all the look of an army that had absolutely zero regard for its opponent.

[GDS_Starfury]

Which general said earlier that if that convoy had been fighting NATO, not a single troop there would have survived the first hour?

Petraeus. 

However, he also said, and I agree, that Russia would've never fought NATO like this. 

The Russians have all the look of an army that had absolutely zero regard for its opponent.

I know Ive read enough scenarios and text to know that the soviets practiced the idea of using large exercises as cover to surprise NATO.

[Zulu1966]

The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.     https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

That convoy is badly in need of some BRRRRRT.

Yeah I thought that when I saw it. Can you imagine the mess a couple of squadrons of NATO aircraft would make of that thing. Fish in a barrell. I have seen videos of armour sitting on a road out of fuel. Given the amount of time they had to plan this it is amazing it is so badly handled.

Can only think the planners thought this thing would be a walk over.

The only other thing I can think is that they really had only planned for exercises and when this didn't deliver what Putin wanted he told them to go in.

Of course the Ukrainian army have had something to do with this as well.

Still all seems like a shitshow so far and if it is any indication of Russian capabilities very puzzling.

[Crossroads]

Which general said earlier that if that convoy had been fighting NATO, not a single troop there would have survived the first hour?

Anyway... as someone whose sources suggested the backfield logistics were insufficient for an actual invasion, I'm glad to see they were correct -- for now.

Sure, there can always be a pause to bring in new supplies (and give the troops a rest) -- that sort of thing happens to everyone during an invasion, even the best planned and supplied invasion possible. (I've reached Churchill's account of the first phase of Italy's invasion during WW2, in his memoirs, and sure enough after the first pulse onto the mainland there had to be a definite period of resupply before continuing -- which the Nazis took good opportunities with, as Churchill was worried they would, leading to a very nearly run defense against counterattack which almost threw the British and Americans back into the sea. And this was BEFORE Anzio!)

But you aren't supposed to have to shove your logistics up to their forming-up positions (so to speak) near the front line on an invasion, before sending them on to your invaders!

As we now suspect, Putin thought (for whatever reason) that the Ukrainian military would somehow just roll over after a nominal show of defense, which is why he was content to inflate his invasion force in the final days with green recruits but not with a proper backfield logistic support (of invasion strength, not merely for training those numbers). If all you're going to do is roll into the nation and occupy it, you don't need much more logistics than for training at the border -- arguably maybe even less, since you'll be taking control of your enemy's supplies without much hassle! What you do need is lots and lots of boots to hold the ground, but they don't need to be well-heeled mountain-class boots (so to speak).

Then opps, there's a real fight, and your maskirovka preparations to confuse your enemies about your intentions turn out to have an unexpectedly sharp double-edge. To continue the Dumbledore Gambit metaphor, you'd better have the power prepared to back up your multiple plots just in case!

Now he's learning he doesn't have the power ready to solidly win, if the Ukrainians put up a real fight, so he's falling back on what prepared power he does have: nuclear threats.

And meanwhile, he's having to shuttle fresh supplies through his ill-prepared fortified sectors (for want of a better term -- they still serve that purpose, though badly right now).

His preparations, and lack thereof, make sense when considered through an expectation that -- to quote a common saying of another famous invader of Ukraine -- all he has to do is kick down the door and the whole rotten structure will collapse.

But like that other famous invader of Ukraine, the whole rotten structure didn't collapse at all, after all.

Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn't have 16 Armies shoved up to its side of the border for at least a nominal defense plus another 70ish divisions on the way to the front from its backfield. The rotten doghouse didn't collapse when Putin kicked in the door, but it's still only a doghouse instead of a vast wooden castle: he may not be prepared to do a lot of real kicking, but it won't need as much real kicking either.  :-\

Fortunately, as with many wars, the enemy only has to be annoyed out of fighting for you to win.

Unfortunately for Putin, right now it's his own troops who are mostly being annoyed out of fighting! -- thus Putin's fallback upon forces that can't and don't get annoyed out of fighting for him. (Whether his officers in that corps are prepared to turn those keys, is hopefully another matter again for us all...)

1. Make a decision to annex a country.
2. Establish a puppet government to ask for military assistance to free their people from fascist oppressors.
3. Reject your military's plan for a systematic approach to achieve point one. Decide upon an awe and shock approach instead.
4. Have your forces invade as going to maneuveres, as your intelligence assures they will be met with flowers and songs.
5. Watch your first echelon troops take a mauling under heavy fighting, with great difficulties to achieving their first day objectives, if achieving them all, as the opponent fights as their life would depend on it. Who'd thought.

The above from Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939.

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as another tragedy, as we are learning here. Before any rosy hopes Ukraine can stand alone forever, let us conclude how history played out in part one:

6. Learn from your mistakes, allow military command to run the operation
7. Regroup, resume the attack, have the opponent in ropes in three weeks, just waiting for the final K.O. blow.
8. Have the political lead call the stops, in fear the international intervention will be too much to handle.
9. Accept a truce, take your gains, while allowing your opponent to live to fight another day.
10. Plan for that another day.

Russian military is not a joke, they were led to an unwinnable battle in day one. They will regroup. This war is getting very ugly, very ugly. Hounds of war are notoriously difficult to be called back in. If there's a truce, I have no high hopes a long lasting peace will follow.

Who'd thought I'd wake up and the Iron Curtain is back on.

[ComradeP]

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that European Union members will not lend fighter jets to the war in Ukraine, after days of mixed messages from officials across Europe.

"NATO allies provide different types of military support: material, anti-tank weapons, air defense systems and other types of military equipment for Ukraine, humanitarian aid and also financial support. But NATO is not to be part of the conflict," he said in a joint appearance with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the country's Łask Air Base.

The alliance "is not going to send the troops into Ukraine or move planes into Ukrainian airspace," Stoltenberg added.

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/03/01/no-eu-countries-arent-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/

That's a sensible move. I'm surprised the Polish government in particular didn't think of the issues their move would cause, although of the list of countries that promised aircraft Slovakia is also a member. Slovakia doesn't share a border with Russian territory, however.

NATO members poking Putin with a stick by delivering equipment like aircraft would be likely to escalate the war.

[Pete Dero]

Can anyone suggest a good charity I could give to in support of Ukraine?

The Ukrainian gov't is accepting donations for military support - probably the most direct way to contribute: https://kyivindependent.com/national/heres-how-to-support-ukrainian-military/

The Ukrainian bank website in English: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) - https://www.icrc.org/en/where-we-work/europe-central-asia/ukraine
Your local Red Cross probably has a national donation program running.

[Ian C]

I've donated to the Ukrainian Red Cross and it's a good solid way to help.

My friend, a software game coder from California lives in Kharkiv with his wife. I've been checking in with him every day on Facebook. They've been taking a hammering with artillery and rocket strikes and now there's a major airborne assault on the city. A day ago he sent this message:

Thank you Ian, we're supplied for xxxxxx, maybe more.
For the escalation, I think we have xxxx before being overwhelmed.

We're caught in a x-fire if we move - so we've bunkered down.

Bandwidth is crap, I'll try to post some cheer as sign of living -- otherwise -- been a please my good sir - been an absolute pleasure!

Stay positive, stay solid.

Then he posted this

[Pete Dero]

The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.     https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

That convoy is badly in need of some BRRRRRT.

This almost looks like bait.  The surrounding woods could be littered with SAM's.

But those roads are surrounded by mud this time of the year, so a stuck vehicle holds the entire column and that might be all there is to it.

[Zulu1966]

The 40-mile Russian convoy is stalled 18 miles north of Kiev.  Jesus, what a sh!tshow.     https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

That convoy is badly in need of some BRRRRRT.

This almost looks like bait.  The surrounding woods could be littered with SAM's.

But those roads are surrounded by mud this time of the year, so a stuck vehicle holds the entire column and that might be all there is to it.

I think you are giving credit where it is not deserved. It just looks like a SNAFU to me.

[Gusington]

I almost think it looks like bait too. Almost.

[jamus34]

I wouldn't think they would send in ground pounders first.

That said, they coming in on one road and the column is that long? Couldn't you just cruise missile the hell out of it?

[ArizonaTank]

I thought this was interesting, Wargaming.net, the World of Tanks company is originally a Belarus company.

They have fired their Creative Director for his pro-Russian, pro-invasion comments.

Apparently the company has "hundreds" of workers in Ukraine and they have made a large donation to the Ukrainian Red Cross.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements

[MengJiao]

I thought this was interesting, Wargaming.net, the World of Tanks company is originally a Belarus company.

They have fired their Creative Director for his pro-Russian, pro-invasion comments.

Apparently the company has "hundreds" of workers in Ukraine and they have made a large donation to the Ukrainian Red Cross.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements

  There are a lot of Russian games out there (DCS world?  Enlisted?  War Thunder? Mius Front?  Battle of Stalingrad? etc.) that I was already cutting back on so maybe now its time for cutting back even more.

[GDS_Starfury]

I thought this was interesting, Wargaming.net, the World of Tanks company is originally a Belarus company.

They have fired their Creative Director for his pro-Russian, pro-invasion comments.

Apparently the company has "hundreds" of workers in Ukraine and they have made a large donation to the Ukrainian Red Cross.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/world-of-tanks-dev-let-go-from-wargaming-after-pro-russia-comments/1100-6501146/

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-01-wargaming-fires-world-of-tanks-creative-director-following-pro-russia-statements

they've also donated $1 million euros to the Ukranian Red Cross

[ArizonaTank]

  There are a lot of Russian games out there (DCS world?  Enlisted?  War Thunder? Mius Front?  Battle of Stalingrad? etc.) that I was already cutting back on so maybe now its time for cutting back even more.

I decided for myself that I would not buy anything new (DLCs and the like), and I would stop using any services like War Thunder.

I was happy to find that Heroes and Generals is a US based company. Not my favorite, but an OK "Enlisted" substitute.