Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

the Atlantic seems to have some really good articles!

[GDS_Starfury]

what are the chances of russia being disarmed of nukes after this is done?
I understand that the US would also have to give up a huge number to get this done.

[FarAway Sooner]

The Atlantic is an excellent magazine.  It leans slightly left, but does a good job of taking on issues from a nonpartisan angle, so we actually learn some things and maybe even develop some ideas for a path forward.  It's the closest thing that North America has to The Economist.

There is NO WAY that Russia disarms its nuclear arsenal without regime change.  Even then, it's almost totally unlikely.  It's the only thing they have left that makes them relevant on the global stage. 

It's also the only thing THEY control that keeps other countries from ever invading them.  The historical trauma from brutal occupations runs so deep in that culture, I don't ever see them giving that up.  JMHO, obviously.

[Sir Slash]

Who the hell would trust Putin if he said he had no nukes? I wouldn't trust the bastard if he told me he had no steely, piercing eyes.

[Gusington]

I really only see Russia getting rid of their nukes by launching them at us.

[W8taminute]

So I was chatting on the phone with a friend this evening and he brought up a good point to what has been disturbing me about this whole affair.
He said that Putin probably put all his second rate equipment and troops on the border just to scare the west into giving him what he wanted.  Since the west really didn't back down (or offer some sort of reconcilliation for that matter) Putin decided to actually invade then.  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

[SirAndrewD]

So I was chatting on the phone with a friend this evening and he brought up a good point to what has been disturbing me about this whole affair.
He said that Putin probably put all his second rate equipment and troops on the border just to scare the west into giving him what he wanted.  Since the west really didn't back down (or offer some sort of reconcilliation for that matter) Putin decided to actually invade then.  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I don't really agree with that at all. 

Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine five years ago.  NATO was just a red herring. 

He wants to restore the RUBK power axis, Russia/Belarus/Ukraine/Kazakhstan.   The only way this could've been avoided is if the Euromaidan dominated government had collapsed and been replaced by a pro-Putin stooge.

The Russians have been famous for putting its second tier troops in harms way to support its front line formations as far as they've had a military history.

[solops]

I really only see Russia getting rid of their nukes by launching them at us.

+1

[Pete Dero]

Ukraine is claiming that a tip-off from "representatives" of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), helped foil and kill Chechen assassins going after Zelensky over the weekend.

If true...that's gotta be irritating and maybe even scary for Putin. His own security service (the equivalent of the FBI) helping the Ukrainians.

Maybe the distance isn't because of Covid but for fear of an attack on him ?

[MikeGER]

a good cover about where Germany is at right now.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/

there is a concerning story behind this.

German government, with its fresh left-green and neo-liberal coalition acted in the beginning of the crisis as has to be expected.

then last Saturday Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausea visited Scholz in person! in his office in Berlin, hours later he released 1/4 of the German stockpile of Stingers and Fausts to be donated to the Ukraine and hold his historic speech with the 180 degree change of German stance next morn. a change that if he had only argumented mildly in that direction in an interview/talkshow a day before would have let to an instant revolt in his sozial-democratic party, and the Greens would have gone apeshit and it would have been the end of the coalition and new elections. The fact that the Greens accepeted this in that night too without the usual  week/month long discussions and firce resistance  also prove the sheer magnitude of that pardigm change     

My conclusion: there must be a valid and shockingly grave intelligence report (with an obviously beyond 'cosmic' secret level classification to protect the source) that both Presidents briefed Scholz about on Saturday, in person! go figure both and in person !

And that changed it all.     

I really would like to take a glipms on that intel
(i guess its from an Baltic agent in Putins inner circle, or a Russian General would like to save the real Russia as a true patriot that he is, and the world too, who leaked Putins playbook)   

PS: 2700 Strela2 (known as SA7 Grail)   anti air manpads on the way   
 

[Yskonyn]

  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I am not following you at all. Could you elaborate on how exactly it might feel like the West wanted this?

[ComradeP]

a good cover about where Germany is at right now.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/

there is a concerning story behind this.

German government, with its fresh left-green and neo-liberal coalition acted in the beginning of the crisis as has to be expected.

then last Saturday Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausea visited Scholz in person! in his office in Berlin, hours later he released 1/4 of the German stockpile of Stingers and Fausts to be donated to the Ukraine and hold his historic speech with the 180 degree change of German stance next morn. a change that if he had only argumented mildly in that direction in an interview/talkshow a day before would have let to an instant revolt in his sozial-democratic party, and the Greens would have gone apeshit and it would have been the end of the coalition and new elections. The fact that the Greens accepeted this in that night too without the usual  week/month long discussions and firce resistance  also prove the sheer magnitude of that pardigm change     

My conclusion: there must be a valid and shockingly grave intelligence report (with an obviously beyond 'cosmic' secret level classification to protect the source) that both Presidents briefed Scholz about on Saturday, in person! go figure both and in person !

And that changed it all.     

I really would like to take a glipms on that intel
(i guess its from an Baltic agent in Putins inner circle, or a Russian General would like to save the real Russia as a true patriot that he is, and the world too, who leaked Putins playbook)   

PS: 2700 Strela2 (known as SA7 Grail)   anti air manpads on the way   

It will take years for the increased spending to result in an overall higher state of readiness, in any EU country. If there's an immediate threat, which seems to be what you suggest, the increased spending wouldn't do anything about it.

Considering the nature of German (and, for example, Dutch) coalition governments, if the head of state or prime minister wants to get anything done it can be best to just announce a change and wait for everybody to hop on the bandwagon. Instead of talking about it for years.

In Dutch media, the move by Scholtz is compared to Kohl's speech about future reunification of Germany. Instead of first talking about it for years, it came down to: "this is our goal, and we'll reach it by following a programme that I'll describe".

[Pete Dero]

Can you do us a favor ?

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-say-china-asked-russia-delay-ukraine-war-until-after-beijing-2022-03-02/

Senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, the New York Times reported, quoting Biden administration officials and a European official who cited a Western intelligence report.

Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said, "The claims mentioned in the relevant reports are speculations without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China."

[GDS_Starfury]

video of another failed russian attack:

[Jarhead0331]

Russia made some pretty significant gains yesterday and I think the pace of the invasion is going to pick-up over the next several days.

Key Takeaways March 2

    Russian forces resumed offensive operations against Kyiv's western outskirts on March 2 after pausing for resupply from February 27 to March 1 but failed to secure any additional territory.

    Russian forces launched offensive operations in Zhytomyr Oblast, expanding their envelopment of Kyiv further west than ISW previously assessed—likely to outflank stronger-than-anticipated Ukrainian resistance and limited Ukrainian counterattacks in Kyiv's outskirts.

    Russian forces renewed advances toward northeastern Kyiv on March 2, reaching a line approximately 65km from the city center on that axis.

    Russian forces assaulted central Kharkiv and continued to heavily bombard the city on March 2, likely increasing civilian casualties.

    Russian forces fully encircled Mariupol as of March 2 and are conducting a deliberate campaign to destroy critical civilian infrastructure and residential areas in a likely attempt to force the city to surrender.

    Russian forces continued to reduce pockets of Ukrainian resistance in Kherson on March 2 and will likely secure the city in the next 24 hours if they have not done so already.