Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

JSTAR, Rivet Joint and Awac are all up over Poland now.
and an E-6 is running around the SE US.

[Con]

I think a topic that has not been addressed is the economic action of the war and the longer term implications.

Specifically I am talking about how unplugging Russia from SWIFT, the dominance of the dollar and preventing Russia to access their war chest is playing out in China right now.
If China invaded Taiwan there would presumably be a similar level of sanctions/financial actions.  What is China going to do to buffer its economy?
 
IMO they will need to integrate their buying of US dollars more closely with external to the US banks to prevent being cut off from them.  Additionally Taiwan is a major trading partner for the US so ranking 9th on the trading list for the US vs Ukraine 67th so the US has to be careful how the sanctions are implemented since they dont want to damage Taiwan.

Overall I think the US will soon be drafting a new military unit - an economic battalion of financial experts that can swiftly deploy sanctions and disrupt economies.

Con

[Pete Dero]

Specifically I am talking about unplugging Russia from SWIFT

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-excludes-seven-russian-banks-swift-official-journal-2022-03-02/

The European Union said on Wednesday it was excluding seven Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system, but stopped short of including those handling energy payments, in the latest sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Sberbank (SBER.MM), Russia's largest lender, and Gazprombank were not included because they are the main channels for payments for Russian oil and gas, which EU countries are still buying despite the conflict in Ukraine.

[W8taminute]

  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I am not following you at all. Could you elaborate on how exactly it might feel like the West wanted this?

The New World Order or the World Economic Forum. 
Look at what happened in Canada.  The truckers had all of their financial assets frozen by Trudeau.  No due process, no trial, but instead a decision to shut undesirable people out of society and life.  If the new norm now is shutting down anyone who doesn't follow the party line then why can't this be applied at the macro level or in other words against a world leader who won't play ball nicely. 

Keep in mind NATO said they would never expand eastward after the collapse of the USSR but look what they have done.  I'm not justifying what Putin is doing but if one get's inside the head of a person you can see why they think and act they way they do.  He's being pushed into a corner intentionally for some reason. 

We don't know what's really happening there but everything is not what it seems to be. 

[W8taminute]

So I was chatting on the phone with a friend this evening and he brought up a good point to what has been disturbing me about this whole affair.
He said that Putin probably put all his second rate equipment and troops on the border just to scare the west into giving him what he wanted.  Since the west really didn't back down (or offer some sort of reconcilliation for that matter) Putin decided to actually invade then.  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I don't really agree with that at all. 

Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine five years ago.  NATO was just a red herring. 

He wants to restore the RUBK power axis, Russia/Belarus/Ukraine/Kazakhstan.   The only way this could've been avoided is if the Euromaidan dominated government had collapsed and been replaced by a pro-Putin stooge.

The Russians have been famous for putting its second tier troops in harms way to support its front line formations as far as they've had a military history.

True I agree this has been planned all along.  But then Trump.  The elites had to delay their dastardly plans because Trump wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  Now the EU has a muppet in the US that they know they can get to do their bidding. 

I'm telling you there is something else going on here and it's nefarious. 

[Gusington]

I do know that NATO and the US did agree to not push further eastward and then did so. I don't know if it's anything more or less bad than that. And Putin's health, mental and physical, definitely appears to be failing. I do think that has a lot to do with it.

[al_infierno]

So I was chatting on the phone with a friend this evening and he brought up a good point to what has been disturbing me about this whole affair.
He said that Putin probably put all his second rate equipment and troops on the border just to scare the west into giving him what he wanted.  Since the west really didn't back down (or offer some sort of reconcilliation for that matter) Putin decided to actually invade then.  It went wrong and now we're in a mess.  A mess that almost has the feel that it was the west all along who wanted it. 

Theories for sure, but it is plausible imho.  I don't know.  I just hope we don't get nuked.

I don't really agree with that at all. 

Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine five years ago.  NATO was just a red herring. 

He wants to restore the RUBK power axis, Russia/Belarus/Ukraine/Kazakhstan.   The only way this could've been avoided is if the Euromaidan dominated government had collapsed and been replaced by a pro-Putin stooge.

The Russians have been famous for putting its second tier troops in harms way to support its front line formations as far as they've had a military history.

True I agree this has been planned all along.  But then Trump.  The elites had to delay their dastardly plans because Trump wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  Now the EU has a muppet in the US that they know they can get to do their bidding. 

I'm telling you there is something else going on here and it's nefarious.

:DD ::)

[GDS_Starfury]

True I agree this has been planned all along.  But then Trump.  The elites had to delay their dastardly plans because Trump wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  Now the EU has a muppet in the US that they know they can get to do their bidding. 

I'm telling you there is something else going on here and it's nefarious.

ya, keep the pro trump bs out of this.  if I cant post along these lines why are you?

[Gusington]

I *gently* placed a very soft warning above. Maybe too subtle?

[Uberhaus]

A dispassionate analysis of what Putin will do in Ukraine as well as insight into his mindset by Daniel Hoffman, " for years one of the CIA's top experts on Russia"
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/putin-is-determined-to-burn-down-ukraines-house-former-cia-operative-says-141203665.html

Russia has a different view of collateral damage, and they have a different view of casualties for their own. In our rules of engagement in the U.S., we do the best we possibly can not to strike civilian targets. For the Russians, just look at the battle of Stalingrad. That's kind of the way Vladimir Putin sees the world. Think about the poisoning of [Russian dissident Alexander] Litvinenko with radioactive polonium-210. He created a human dirty bomb. There just is an "ends justify whatever means you want to use." That's kind of the way that they do things.

And I'll just tell you a quick story. I asked once, a long time ago, a Russian intelligence officer, I asked him, "What is it about your neighbors and your tactics for dealing with them?" And he said to me, "Listen, let's just say you have a really nice house, and I don't. My house is a crappy house. I'm just gonna go burn yours down. That's kind of the way we think."

A further article talks about the support the US provided to Ukraine prior to invasion.  https://ca.news.yahoo.com/how-the-us-helped-ukraine-prepare-for-a-russian-invasion-210407079.html

In addition to cybersecurity help, the U.S. has provided advanced military training to elite Ukrainian military and special operations units. A small contingent of U.S. special operations and other military personnel were based in Ukraine to train their counterparts there, though they were were recently evacuated by the Pentagon because of the looming threat of a Russian invasion.

The CIA has also provided secret training to Ukrainian security officials. In 2015, the agency began sending a small cohort of paramilitary officers to the eastern front to help advise Ukrainian forces there, former U.S. intelligence officials told Yahoo News.

One area where U.S. paramilitary trainers have been focused on helping shore up defenses against a Russian strike or occupation is the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, according to a former CIA executive.

The diplomatic correspondent of the BBC writes on five ways the war might end.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60602936

Amid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Most are bleak.

[Gusington]

"Listen, let's just say you have a really nice house, and I don't. My house is a crappy house. I'm just gonna go burn yours down. That's kind of the way we think."

Great guys.

[al_infierno]

This is why it makes me really mad when people want to smugly compare American military incursions with Russian ones.  We may have a shitty track record of collateral damage and civilian casualties, but nothing on the level of what the Russians are casually capable of.  I don't recall Fallujah looking like Grozny.

Sorry if this is reaching into R&P turf but I figure I'm mostly preaching the choir anyways.

[Gusington]

^I agree. I don't think any nation in history has at least attempted to avoid civilian casualties more so than the U.S. At least the Russians know what they are.

[Tripoli]

^I agree. I don't think any nation in history has at least attempted to avoid civilian casualties more so than the U.S. At least the Russians know what they are.

While the US has been good, Israel (especially for the past 40+ years) has been particularly noteworthy.

[Jarhead0331]

^I agree. I don't think any nation in history has at least attempted to avoid civilian casualties more so than the U.S. At least the Russians know what they are.

While the US has been good, Israel (especially for the past 40+ years) has been particularly noteworthy.

+1. They actually make phone calls before dropping bombs.