Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Skoop]

I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.

I'm not sure of this, but I refuse to succumb to the notion that any tyrannical power with nukes has a license to kill civilians.  Shelling cities is Putin's playbook all along.  Look at grozny, we should have seen it coming then but no one in the west wants to interrupt their comfortable life.  Now it's magnified in Ukraine and if he gets a pass watch what happens when it's Estonia or Poland.

[Skoop]

I'm not saying we should go full on desert storm on the Russians tomorrow, but let's push the envelope a little and see if we can give the Ukrainians a fighting chance.  Let's use some asymmetric warfare on the Russians.

[Jarhead0331]

I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.

I'm not sure of this, but I refuse to succumb to the notion that any tyrannical power with nukes has a license to kill civilians.  Shelling cities is Putin's playbook all along.  Look at grozny, we should have seen it coming then but no one in the west want to interrupt their comfortable life.  Now it's magnified in Ukrainian and if he gets a pass watch what happens when it's Estonia or Poland.

There is no comparison. Estonia and Poland are both NATO member states. Ukraine is not. I am not willing to risk American lives, and worse, the Third World War, to protect Ukrainian sovereignty, particularly when the country and its government has its own questionable record. I don't understand how anyone can be so cavalier about the stakes involved in this situation.

Its nice to talk about stopping tyrants, but its just talk. I don't see how US interests in stopping Russia's war against Ukraine outweigh the potential consequences of getting involved in a more direct confrontational way.

[Tripoli]

I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.

Agreed. Putin is on a highway with no off-ramp so far. We need to give him one and it will probably need to be, at the least, an independent Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

We could possibly offer him to not let Finland and Sweden in NATO in exchange for cessation of hostilities, recognition of Ukrainian territory (unfortunately, absent the Donbas).  In other words, threaten him with something he neither wants, and is incapable of stopping.

[Uberhaus]

Russian army defections have been discussed in the topic and offering of asylum is a fair tactic to counter the invasion.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-the-cards-canada-is-leaving-unplayed-in-countering-putin

We're also a pretty attractive destination for the average Russian conscript (and we happen to be dramatically ramping up our immigration targets in part to combat a growing labour shortage).

Christian Leuprecht, a professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, told the National Post that Canada and NATO should consider offering to process and house prisoners of wars on behalf of Ukraine. "That way (Russian soldiers) know they won't have to fear retribution – and they may never have to return to Russia," he said.

If the Russian army suffers a lot of defections, the political officer might be reintroduced.  If these cannot be found internally, the Russian National Guard, Putin's Praetorian guard of 400 000 light infantry might be used.  But in large numbers necessary for personal security, it will start to strip away these internal security forces from Russia.  National Guard and leadership info in this article:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261

The same article also mentions increased oil production in Canada so as to block Russian exports.  This will be some time away as the infrastructure is not in place to export it, but regional politicians are discussing increased production.  With Spring coming in Europe and promise of increased production in places like Tunisia, it could make the threat of ending imports of Russian oil and gas a reality.  If Saudi Arabia was to increase production, it would put the nail in the coffin of a long time competitor as the two countries had been engaged in lowering prices to damage profits to expensive fracking and oilsand fields as well as each other pre-pandemic.

Methods Russia may use to try to dodge economic disaster are as follows:

Russians will move their monies into cryptocurrencies.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60576373

The boss of one of the world's biggest crypto-currency exchanges has ruled out restricting ordinary Russians from using the service.

Binance founder and chief executive Changpeng Zhao, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Many normal Russians do not agree with war."

Major cryptocurrency exchanges have been asked by Ukraine to block Russian users.
...
There has been speculation Russian oligarchs may pour their money into cryptocurrencies to avoid sanctions and other restrictions.

The Russian banks hold US$140 billion in Chinese stocks and will likely maintain access to them.

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/03/03/ukraine-crisis-china-bonds

Russia's central bank and sovereign wealth fund may account for nearly a quarter of foreign holdings of Chinese bonds, analysts at ANZ Research calculated, potentially offering shelter from Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia's financial markets have been thrown into turmoil by sanctions imposed over the invasion, the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two.

In the face of those sanctions, Russian companies have been exploring workarounds with emerging market allies, especially China, with settlement of transactions in yuan seen rising at the expense of the dollar.

In a note this week, ANZ economists and strategists said they estimate yuan bond holdings of Russia's central bank and the Russian National Wealth Fund at $80 billion and $60 billion, respectively.

The Chinese would be more than happy to see the 'dethroning' of the US dollar, but an economist should comment on how such a move could play out. 

[Gusington]

If I am reading the above correctly, the Russian Army does not have political officers anymore? Or...yet?

[GDS_Starfury]

yet  ::)

[Gusington]

Nyet? Either way...doesn't look good for anyone.

[Uberhaus]

If I am reading the above correctly, the Russian Army does not have political officers anymore? Or...yet?

My written communication needs work.  I believe the political officer disappeared in the middle of the Second World War from the Soviet Army.  There is no equivalent in the modern Russian army.  I am speculating that if Ukraine with tacit support from the West (such as asylum) encourages defections and it is effective you will see reappearance of officers responsible for maintaining battle field discipline.  This will strip manpower from elsewhere including Russia, especially if there are threats against the 'commisars'.

[al_infierno]

A Russian Major General was killed by a sniper, making him the highest ranking Russian officer killed in the conflict thus far.  Confirmed by Putin going on air and talking about him as a war hero.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10573429/Top-Russian-general-killed-Ukrainian-sniper-Kyiv-claims-9-000-Putins-troops-died.html?ito=social-facebook

[Uberhaus]

A Russian Major General was killed by a sniper, making him the highest ranking Russian officer killed in the conflict thus far.  Confirmed by Putin going on air and talking about him as a war hero.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10573429/Top-Russian-general-killed-Ukrainian-sniper-Kyiv-claims-9-000-Putins-troops-died.html?ito=social-facebook

He's having to talk a lot about how heroic they are, which smacks of desperation.

[GDS_Starfury]

as of early today

[Gusington]

'Military administration' in Kherson. Not good.

[Skoop]

I seriously doubt Putin will pull the nuke trigger.  Could we really be the band of pussies that Putin thinks we are ?

What makes you so sure of this?  If an unstable individual is holding a gun to your head, finger on the trigger, and the police have guns fixed on him, would you want the police to assume he's not serious and hurry up and escalate the violence?  Do you think if Hitler had access to nuclear weapons in May of 1945, he wouldn't have used them?  The last thing we want to do is back a psychopathic dictator with access to a nuclear arsenal into a corner in which he feels he has nothing left to lose.

I'm not sure of this, but I refuse to succumb to the notion that any tyrannical power with nukes has a license to kill civilians.  Shelling cities is Putin's playbook all along.  Look at grozny, we should have seen it coming then but no one in the west want to interrupt their comfortable life.  Now it's magnified in Ukrainian and if he gets a pass watch what happens when it's Estonia or Poland.

There is no comparison. Estonia and Poland are both NATO member states. Ukraine is not. I am not willing to risk American lives, and worse, the Third World War, to protect Ukrainian sovereignty, particularly when the country and its government has its own questionable record. I don't understand how anyone can be so cavalier about the stakes involved in this situation.

Its nice to talk about stopping tyrants, but its just talk. I don't see how US interests in stopping Russia's war against Ukraine outweigh the potential consequences of getting involved in a more direct confrontational way.

Estonia is gona be a target cause it's nato on his border.  Might has well get more involved in clandestine ways now while we have a fanatical ally intact.  But your probably right, we'll just stand by and wait for Putin's next move.  Hilarious thing is west is still buying Russian oil.

[Pete Dero]

Hilarious thing is west is still buying Russian oil.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/03/investing/russia-oil-sanctions-ukraine/index.html

Russian oil has not been directly targeted by the West's crushing sanctions on Moscow — so far, at least. In fact, the United States and Europe have gone out of their way to avoid hitting Russia's fossil fuels.
But the market is taking no chances when it comes to Russian oil. Traders, shippers, insurance companies and banks don't want to touch the stuff, for fear of running afoul of Western sanctions.

This means that a considerable amount of Russian oil has been effectively sidelined — precisely what the West didn't want to happen. Prices for oil and gasoline have skyrocketed.

"The sanctions have led to a de facto ban on Russian oil," Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, told CNN.
Although the West has carved out the energy sector from the crushing sanctions leveled on Russia, the penalties imposed on banks, individuals and Russia's central bank have created a minefield for the energy industry to navigate. And there is concern — some of it sparked by White House comments this week — that Russian oil will be sanctioned eventually anyway.
"How do you know that the oil you are loading has not been tainted by ownership from someone who has been sanctioned?" Lipow said. "You know how you solve that problem? You don't buy it."