Russia's War Against Ukraine

[steve58]

Putin to declare martial law in Russia?

...Russian citizens have broadly started to panic as the Duma, Russia's governing body, meets Thursday to lay out new legislation that may allow it to conscript anyone arrested for protesting the invasion

That'll squash a lot of the protesting. :(

[FarAway Sooner]

It's an interesting dynamic.  The price of Russian oil has dropped dramatically, for fear that it'll turn to poison in the pipelines and the tankers quickly.  A week ago, European and US leaders were VERY worried about antagonizing their civilian populations.  We cry like somebody took our lollipop when we have to shoulder ANY kind of sacrifice these days.

That may be changing.  In another few weeks, Europe will be getting warmer, which reduces the short-term need for fuel too.  Both places have needed a more coherent energy policy that worried about national security for 20 years now.  I guess it's a little bit late.

I am terribly sad that the people of Ukraine are being forced to pay the price for the shortsightedness and greed of governments and voters in Western Europe and North America.  Sanctions might work eventually if the people get so restless that the oligarchs start to fear them more than they do Putin.  There's NO sign of that happening yet.

To be clear, Russia is NOT the Bear of the 1970s.  Today they represent 2% of the world's GDP and 3% of the world's population.  Germany's economy alone is 4x the size of Russia's.  Russia faces a Europe more unified than it's been since... Forever?  Democracies have a short attention span and a low pain threshold, but when you get them pissed, they can be incredibly effective.

I wonder if Sweden and Finland join NATO now?  If Ukraine can stave off this Russian attack, I suspect that they'll be in the EU within a year.

The only problem:  Russia is basically a dirty gas station with a noble history of science, art and culture... and 3,000 nukes.  It might feel good to punch them in the nose, but it'd give us the same strategic advantage as punching a dude wearing a suicide vest in the nose.

[GDS_Starfury]

Im holding out for the mostly peaceful coup.

[Gusington]

I've read that Russia has 6000 nukes but who's counting after the first 2-3 anyway.

[ComradeP]

The extent of Russian penetration west of Kiev might not be accurately represented on maps. Yesterday and today, I saw photos of rubble in the Zhitomir area.

It also seems strange that, considering the lengthy border with Belarus, the Russians wouldn't attempt to create a wider encirclement after taking Kiev from the march and through airborne assault failed.

I fear there might be a lot more "red" spots west of Kiev compared to that map.

I wonder if Sweden and Finland join NATO now?

Improbable, they didn't join NATO when the Soviet Union attacked Afghanistan or the Russians attacked Georgia either. It would be another big step from moving from relaxing their neutral to actually joining NATO.

If Ukraine can stave off this Russian attack, I suspect that they'll be in the EU within a year.

Impossible. Particularly in Western Europe, politicians took a lot of flak after the "everybody can join" years resulted in corrupt states like Bulgaria and Romania joining. Von der Leyen has mostly been misquoted thus far, she didn't say Ukraine would be able to join no questions asked.

The nature of the attack, as well as the resistance offered by the Ukrainians, shouldn't cloud judgement as to the political, social and economic issues Ukraine faces. Without the war, Zelensky would still be spending a considerable amount of energy on trying to put his predecessor in prison.

[GDS_Starfury]

[Windigo]

I really only see Russia getting rid of their nukes by launching them at us.

I am certain, they feel the same way towards you John Wayne dudes   <:-)

[Con]

Need to pick it up yourself from Ukraine
It's a joke but not by much

[steve58]

Speaking of nukes nuclear power plants.  Russians are closing in on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.  Let us pray no errant shells/missiles land anywhere near it. :hide:

[JasonPratt]

"Just writing it down, so there is no misunderstanding in the future." -- German History and Culture Facebook

Missing some REALLY IMPORTANT context (as I know Star is well aware of course), but still funny. I lol'd harder than I was expecting! As I've quipped before, all the Nazis had to do to win WW2 was not be Nazis.

After all, the Soviet government -- even before the USSR existed per se as the Soviet government -- had been trying to take over Germany by various military methods (and then Europe and then the world, by their own ideological declarations and propaganda) since less than 48 hours after the end of WW1. Germany, per se, had a lot of excuse to get bothered and armed up over Russia nearby. Which Hitler exploited to excuse his own atrocities (which Stalin could then exploit to excuse more of his own atrocities, in an ongoing feedback loop).

But even the Weimar Republic felt the boots repeatedly trying to over-stomp them, and were desperate enough to do crazy things about it. (Up to and including paying Stalinist Russia to host production and training for modern air, land, and sea warfare.)

Had the West (and neighbors like Poland, clawing its way out of being dominated for however many decades) not been so (understandably) concerned about a resurgent German war machine, Germany could have been the hero of the continent against tyrannical aggression from Russia. Churchill had been willing to set that up if possible, by sparing the Republic its reparations in practice and bringing them into the League as the glorious shield of Europe against the Comintern, regaining and establishing Germany's public honor.

Pretty much no one else was on board with that idea, but in hindsight...

[JasonPratt]

Resizing Star's handy map for easier overview.  O0 Clicking still allows zoom-in (and back out).

No doubt outdated by this time today, and probably too optimistic (as noted afterward), but still a handy snapshot.

[JasonPratt]

"Mr. Reagan", conservative commentator with a Russian wife, offers some commentary gleaned from his Russian contacts.

"Here's the problem: you can have more than one supervillain."

[JasonPratt]

Bill Whittle's commentary group on morale and logistics in Russia vs Ukraine:

[MengJiao]

Speaking of nukes nuclear power plants.  Russians are closing in on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.  Let us pray no errant shells/missiles land anywhere near it. :hide:

  Apparently it's on fire now (whatever that means with a nuclear power plant).  A couple of more Chernobyls aren't going to help anyone much.

  Meanwhile the Russo-Georgian war of 2008 might suggest the kind of on-going mess that Putin is constructing:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

The plant is on the Dniepr and is the most eastern of the plants in the Ukraine, though also billed as "Europe's Largest":

[GDS_Starfury]

its the administration building thats being fired at
agendafreetv is live streaming it now.