Russia's War Against Ukraine

[ArizonaTank]

Reuters reporting that a US Defense Official says Ukraine still has a "significant majority" of its air force.

I hope so...but given the number of Russian aircraft, I just find it hard to believe.

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-still-has-significant-majority-its-military-aircraft-us-official-2022-03-04/

[Uberhaus]

Reuters reporting that a US Defense Official says Ukraine still has a "significant majority" of its air force.

I hope so...but given the number of Russian aircraft, I just find it hard to believe.

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-still-has-significant-majority-its-military-aircraft-us-official-2022-03-04/

It is surprising.  If the airfields are destroyed the SU-27s can operate from short rugged strips or roads.  Wonder, but don't need to know, if the Stinger IFF interogation cannot distinguish between Ukrainian and Russian IFF, requiring grounding of the Ukrainian Air Force.  Or if the aircraft aren't frittered away, they'll remain a check on some action.

[GDS_Starfury]

all russian combat jets can operate from "rough' fields and remote strips.
its also worth keeping in mind that Uk air defense has done a damn good job and the russia cant literally afford to replace combat losses.

[Uberhaus]

The BBC is reporting on Russians fleeing to Finland as they fear the introduction of martial law.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60624500

At Vaalimaa, Finland's border crossing with Russia - 120 miles east of Helsinki - buses and cars stop for passport and customs checks. These aren't Ukrainians, they're Russians, and although the flow isn't heavy, it is constant.

Some people are anxious to get out of Russia because there has been a persistent rumour that President Vladimir Putin's government might soon introduce martial law to deal with demonstrations against the invasion of Ukraine.

From the same article a bit of hope but then dashed again:

More worrying for [Putin] is the call by the Russian oil giant Lukoil for a halt to the invasion. If the main elements of the Russian economy are turning against him, he will find it much harder to carry on without making big changes - such as the introduction of martial law...
If martial law were introduced, Mr Putin would be free to do what he wanted, without having to worry about damaging protests in the streets. He has already made it clear to French President Emmanuel Macron that he won't stop until he has occupied the whole of Ukraine - and a French official who listened in on their phone call said, afterwards, that things could get a great deal worse.

In Russia, foreign businesses are being given these options:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/russia-offers-fast-track-bankruptcy-to-departing-companies/ar-AAUAULk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Foreign companies that want to leave Russia will receive fast-tracked bankruptcy protections or can hand their stakes over to local managers until they return to Russia, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said on Friday...
The fast-track banruptcy plan "will support the employment and social well-being of citizens so that bona fide entrepreneurs can ensure the effective functioning of business", the government said in a statement on Telegram.
Foreign companies could also simply just stay in Russia, Belousov added.

If (speculation) Putin imposes martial law, these foreign owned businesses will be nationalised as was done in Cuba in 1960.  Nationalisation may disguised as take over of bankruptcies, care taking, etc.  Whatever the case, Putin's regime will want to keep people working and who doubts that he would not have a problem with confiscations.  Don't have the knowledge to comment on possibility of reparations from Russia's confiscated $640 billion reserves.

Andre Kozyrev, a former Russian foreign minister living in the US comments on Putin's threats
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-friday-edition-1.6373404/putin-s-veiled-nuclear-threats-a-sign-of-weakness-says-former-russian-foreign-minister-1.6373704?presentid=webnews&ocid=msedgntp

Knowing Vladimir Putin, does it surprise you at all that he is showing little willingness to compromise right now?

It does not.

He miscalculated both the Ukrainian resistance and actually the fact that the Ukrainians, [while] being Russian brothers, are a separate and proud nation. And he miscalculated the Western resolve to stand against him.

But he wants to kind of save as much as he can from this adventure. And that's why he resorts to nuclear threats.

All this is acts of desperation, because you can't resort to nuclear threats unless you are in a very desperate position. So it's not a sign of strength; it's a sign of weakness.

And Kozyrev speculates how it might end:

At this point, there's every sign the war may drag on for a very long time. Where do you think this ends?

It's unpredictable, but it might be rather small because there are already signs that there is considerable discontent inside the Russian [Armed] Forces. And the more the Russian soldiers see what they are doing to our brothers — because they are our brothers — the more they will probably come to their senses and start to ask questions.

There are many, many factors which might end this war rather soon, but it might be a protracted situation.

A repeat of 1991 would be nice. 

[DetCord]

Don't forget that during WWII Stalin's policy was Soviet Policy, and Soviet Policy was to "Bury them with corpses."

Probably a topic for another thread, but the idea of "Soviet human waves" winning WWII is a myth that's been thoroughly debunked by historians.  Stalin was certainly callous about the lives of Soviet troops, but this is a huge oversimplification of the cause of disproportionate Soviet casualties in WWII.

Late response and all but since you brought it up I'll address it. Your statement is a fallacy. The RKKA, for the most part and outside of specific units was a poorly trained, undisciplined, conscripted rabble. The RKKA was purposely designed this way during Stalin's tenure for them (RKKA) to be nothing more than a militia as his paranoia prevented this perceived threat from a military elite. Thus the pre-war military show trials. It wasn't until 46-48 that the Soviet Military underwent a major transformation, incurring the wrath of Stalin himself yet one that pushed to armed forces of the Soviet state toward a more professional, although highly limited facet.

Esteemed Russian military historians (current) like Sokolov, Lebedev, Mironova, and many others have written books and papers about the RKKA reflecting just this. There is a reason you can research via the web, media, government docs, and published accounts of the RKKA in WWII in western nations but not in Russia. As an example, I can find all of the information needed about a British or American unit, their causalities, losses, and vehicles destroyed via the web or by physically visiting said nations archives in person. This isn't possible in Russia. All of this information, information from nearly 80 years ago I might add, is now classified and hidden behind physical firewalls in the Russian Federation via the FSB and TSR. That's just absurd and only goes to show the lengths they'll go to to preserve the myth of the Great Patriotic War.

And not once did I state that Human Waves were the norm. You pulled that out of your ass as a straw-man in an attempt to counter, failed as it were. Even though that tactic remained a mainstay up and until the end of the war. The AFRF are currently using the same tactics of mass-encirclement that they used in WWII, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. They're also utilizing the age-old Russian tactic of tossing untrained conscripts into the fronts prior to followup units taking their place, said units being slaughtered in the process. Again, they did this WWII, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. This is called an SOP and or TTP.

I'd suggest properly educating yourself prior to making unfounded, absurd, and wholly uneducated statements of the aforementioned topics. 

The Russian Way of Warfare by Scott Boston would be a good start. 

[GDS_Starfury]

nerd fight!!!   :timeout:

[al_infierno]

Don't forget that during WWII Stalin's policy was Soviet Policy, and Soviet Policy was to "Bury them with corpses."

Probably a topic for another thread, but the idea of "Soviet human waves" winning WWII is a myth that's been thoroughly debunked by historians.  Stalin was certainly callous about the lives of Soviet troops, but this is a huge oversimplification of the cause of disproportionate Soviet casualties in WWII.

Late response and all but since you brought it up I'll address it. Your statement is a fallacy. The RKKA, for the most part and outside of specific units was a poorly trained, undisciplined, conscripted rabble. The RKKA was purposely designed this way during Stalin's tenure for them (RKKA) to be nothing more than a militia as his paranoia prevented this perceived threat from a military elite. Thus the pre-war military show trials. It wasn't until 46-48 that the Soviet Military underwent a major transformation, incurring the wrath of Stalin himself yet one that pushed to armed forces of the Soviet state toward a more professional, although highly limited facet.

Esteemed Russian military historians (current) like Sokolov, Lebedev, Mironova, and many others have written books and papers about the RKKA reflecting just this. There is a reason you can research via the web, media, government docs, and published accounts of the RKKA in WWII in western nations but not in Russia. As an example, I can find all of the information needed about a British or American unit, their causalities, losses, and vehicles destroyed via the web or by physically visiting said nations archives in person. This isn't possible in Russia. All of this information, information from nearly 80 years ago I might add, is now classified and hidden behind physical firewalls in the Russian Federation via the FSB and TSR. That's just absurd and only goes to show the lengths they'll go to to preserve the myth of the Great Patriotic War.

And not once did I state that Human Waves were the norm. You pulled that out of your ass as a straw-man in an attempt to counter, failed as it were. Even though that tactic remained a mainstay up and until the end of the war. The AFRF are currently using the same tactics of mass-encirclement that they used in WWII, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. They're also utilizing the age-old Russian tactic of tossing untrained conscripts into the fronts prior to followup units taking their place, said units being slaughtered in the process. Again, they did this WWII, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. This is called an SOP and or TTP.

I'd suggest properly educating yourself prior to making unfounded, absurd, and wholly uneducated statements of the aforementioned topics. 

The Russian Way of Warfare by Scott Boston would be a good start.

I don't know why you're getting offended by the "human waves" statement while also asserting that it's correct?  I was merely paraphrasing "bury them with corpses."

You're not making a lot of sense here.  I didn't even dispute that the Red Army was poorly trained and armed, I just said "bury them with corpses" tactics being a mainstay and winning the war is a fabrication created by Hollywood.

This notion has been thoroughly debunked by historians like Glantz so I'd likewise recommend you educate yourself.  In any case, let's drop the topic now because it's not relevant to the thread at hand.

[Pete Dero]

I feel US and Nato are becoming more belligerent and out raged everyday this goes on.  No fly seems insane right now but don't be surprised if west is unanimously clamoring for it by end of next week.  I highly suspect Putin will only nuke if we threaten Russian soil with a land force.

OK, let's do it.  And if it turns out bad we can always reload a previous save game  :hide:.

[solops]

I feel US and Nato are becoming more belligerent and out raged everyday this goes on.  No fly seems insane right now but don't be surprised if west is unanimously clamoring for it by end of next week.  I highly suspect Putin will only nuke if we threaten Russian soil with a land force.

OK, let's do it.  And if it turns out bad we can always reload a previous save game  :hide:.

+1
And make sure the saves are duplicated in a separate directory in case they get overwritten

[Uberhaus]

Let's reload back to 1995, the year before Yeltsin's re-election.

[Sir Slash]

ONLY, if I get my chest-hair back.  >:(

[ArizonaTank]

This notion has been thoroughly debunked by historians like Glantz so I'd likewise recommend you educate yourself.  In any case, let's drop the topic now because it's not relevant to the thread at hand.

I agree, drop it here, but would be great to see the discussion in its own thread.

[Gusington]

I'm reading Andrei Kozyrev's book Firebird right now and it charts and tracks early 1990s Russian history very well. It does also have some pro-Russian bias, in that it is the U.S. and NATO that are partially to blame for not being exactly forthcoming with admitting new nations to NATO in a way that was acceptable both to Russia and the West.

It is truly sad to gauge how close we were to being friends with Russia when we look at how that relationship has evolved into 2022.

[Pete Dero]

It is truly sad to gauge how close we were to being friends with Russia when we look at how that relationship has evolved into 2022.

This is from a debate last night on Dutch TV.  This is the view of a highly acclaimed professor.  If her opinion is correct then it really doesn't matter what we have or haven't done diplomatically in recent years while Putin is in power.

https://wnl.tv/2022/03/05/hoogleraar-poetin-ziet-zichzelf-als-redder-van-russische-ziel-het-is-een-heilige-strijd/  (google translate of the article)

Professor of the history of international relations at Utrecht University, Beatrice de Graaf, thinks that the West does not sufficiently understand the intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to her, this is important, especially in possible negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. "Putin says he is the savior of the Russian soul. It is a holy battle."

According to De Graaf, Putin has increasingly cited the history of Russia in recent years. Contrary to popular belief in the West, the Soviet Union is not the most important chapter for him. He prefers to talk about the fallen empire and the Russian Orthodox Church, says De Graaf on Friday evening in Op1. "Putin says he is the one sitting on the throne."

De Graaf thinks we should get to know Putin better. Only then can negotiations with the Russian president be successful, she thinks. "The goal should be: how do we help Ukraine and how do we prevent a third world war? You achieve that goal through negotiation. The first rule of negotiation is: know your opponent. What drives your opponent and what are the values ​​that can be negotiated?"

So who is Putin and what does he want? According to De Graaf, the leader of Russia is driven by the guarding of Russian values ​​and his dream is to restore the Russian Empire. Putin sees himself as the savior of "true Christianity" and the Russian people. "That people and Christianity coincide for him," says De Graaf. "At one point he actually sat on a Byzantine throne, in a Greek monastery in Athos, the birthplace of Orthodoxy."

In many speeches, Putin says how important it is to him that he was baptized Russian, by his mother, and that the Russian people defend the values ​​of Christianity, says De Graaf. "The purity, the honour, the masculinity and the pride. Putin always says that the West has renounced those values ​​and is liberal, decadent, nihilistic and atheistic."

Guarding Orthodox values ​​even goes so far that Putin sees Russia as "the third Rome", says De Graaf. That has everything to do with the fall of Constantinople (now Istanbul) in 1453. "Moscow kept the flame alive and at some point the Moscow Patriarchate was established there."

"When you hear someone say 'we establish the Third Reich', all alarm bells go off in a historian. We've heard it before in history," she refers to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, for example. "The third Rome Putin establishes is a continuation of ancient Rome, of the empires." It shows that Putin "wants to be taken seriously as a guardian of the Russian soul", says De Graaf. "He has been saying that for twenty years and the message is getting stronger."

And he is not alone in spreading that message. The Russian Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, the spiritual leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, also sees the Russian president as "the savior" of the motherland, says De Graaf. "And the Patriarch comes from heaven. That is a big difference in how we deal with church and state. The Church has no territorial power here, only in the Vatican. In Russia there is still a theocracy, an ecclesiastical state." The Russian Orthodox Church is the largest Orthodox church in the world, with about 100 million followers.

According to the Russian-Dutch Kristina Petrasova, Kirill's influence in Russia is "enormous", she says in Op1. "Since the fall of the Soviet Union, there has been a huge revival of faith. People all go to church. It's in the culture." According to De Graaf, Kirill and Putin are spreading the message in Russia that demonic forces are active in Ukraine. And Putin said yesterday: Ukraine is the anti-Russia. That's where the evil is; the undermining of the one and indivisible Russian Empire. It must be wiped out."

But Putin is not only concerned with guarding Russian orthodoxy. He is "driven by the idea of ​​a holy Russian empire with himself as the savior of the nation", says De Graaf. That nation has been reunited in bringing all the Russian peoples together and restoring Russian glory, she says. "Putin shouts that he wants to restore the tsars and that he is a tsar himself."

To restore that Russian Empire, Russia would also have to take countries like Finland, Belarus, the Baltic States and part of Poland. According to De Graaf, an attempt to do so is unrealistic. "Putin knows that is the hard border with NATO. But this is a blueprint that lives in Russia."

[al_infierno]

^ That's fascinating about Putin's swing towards the old school Tsarist aesthetics and accusing the West of being too "atheistic."