Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Jarhead0331]

so just checked the ADSB flight tracking site and noticed that many USAF planes have gone dark.
they might not be flying at all but I would be really surprised if that was the case.
this also led to another question as I was looking at the map.
when does russia close its airspace to all foreign commercial flights?

Check back during the day, it gets busy, but late at night and very early morning, military air traffic, at least the kind that can be tracked is nominal.

[Sigwolf]

so just checked the ADSB flight tracking site and noticed that many USAF planes have gone dark.
they might not be flying at all but I would be really surprised if that was the case.
this also led to another question as I was looking at the map.
when does russia close its airspace to all foreign commercial flights?

Check back during the day, it gets busy, but late at night and very early morning, military air traffic, at least the kind that can be tracked is nominal.

As for when Russia closes it's airspace to foreign commercial flights... how many are risking their passengers flying through Russian airspace in current conditions anyway?

[GDS_Starfury]

a lot more then you might expect.
look for yourself:

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/

[GDS_Starfury]

@ JH  after the last week and my natural insomnia Ive gotten used to a pattern and to have no EW planes up at all is different.

[Jarhead0331]

@ JH  after the last week and my natural insomnia Ive gotten used to a pattern and to have no EW planes up at all is different.

Not based on my observations and I'm on ADS-B too. Right now I see a total of 4 aircraft over europe, 3 C-130Js and a single Romanian drone. Totally normal from what I've been watching at this hour over the last two weeks.

EDIT: A KC-135 Stratotanker just popped up as I posted.

[Uberhaus]

There's no such thing as an ex-KGB officer.

I stand corrected.

[Atilla60]

There's no such thing as an ex-KGB officer.

I stand corrected.

:)

[JasonPratt]

I think an  ex-KGB officer, murderer and suspected world's richest man (https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/vladimir-putin-net-worth-2022/) while maintaining an economy equivalent to Italy uses religion cynically and manipulatively.

No doubt. So did Stalin once his back was against the wall. Though in Putin's case he has been riding the wave of Orthodox populism since the fall of the USSR, so he has been more consistent.

I had suspected he was going more Tsarist than Stalinist, but I hadn't heard so many details. Now the question is, how far he actually believes his own propaganda. If he does, then you have a basis for working a negotiation. If he doesn't, then you still sort of might have a basis at second-hand, insofar as he finds the maskirovka useful -- but then you have to expect him to zag in his true underlying direction(s) occasionally.

Btw, I've also heard that Russia's economy is equivalent to Florida's.

[JasonPratt]

Russia is mobilizing armor from Siberia to move to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/AndrewScheidl/status/1499385584028110848

Khabarovsk is near the Pacific.

If these are being mobilized now, it suggests Russian losses have been extremely high, and that they've realized that 65% of Russia's army wasn't enough.

The war is going to take much longer. These will take at least a week to reach Ukraine.

I can't decide if it's a little late to start moving the Second Strategic Echelon or not! (...or if this is the Third Echelon.  ::) )

Anyway, hey, if they want to clog up their unprepared logistic backfield even more, then that sounds like good news to me! Now Ebay can be selling some slightly used models in the T-80 family.  >:D (Though some of their legendary infantry carriers may be more practical for most enthusiasts.)

[solops]

@ JH  after the last week and my natural insomnia Ive gotten used to a pattern and to have no EW planes up at all is different.

Not based on my observations and I'm on ADS-B too. Right now I see a total of 4 aircraft over europe, 3 C-130Js and a single Romanian drone. Totally normal from what I've been watching at this hour over the last two weeks.

EDIT: A KC-135 Stratotanker just popped up as I posted.

Which website are you guys using? The exchange?

[GDS_Starfury]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-wargame-before-the-war-russia-attacks-ukraine/

[Jarhead0331]

Without getting political, it's disheartening to see how many people support Russia in this conflict within several of the Facebook groups to which I belong. Generally aware that there are idiots on the internet, but this is ridiculous. They also mostly seem to be from the same region...mostly. So, I suspect this support has less to do with supporting Russia and more to do with defying NATO, the US and the west.

[MengJiao]

Btw, I've also heard that Russia's economy is equivalent to Florida's.

  I've also heard "Texas" and/or "Italy"

  I've been puzzling over how anyone would negotiate anything with Putin.  It seems like he thinks everyone already knows what he wants...but that doesn't seem clear since he keeps adding threats
with respect to sort of random things like the "statehood" (ie being a sovereign entity) of Ukraine or that entities that sanction him have "declared war" on him.  Overall, essentially he seems to be offering: "Let me take over Ukraine or else I'll take over Ukraine."  Not much
real room for negotiating there.

And:

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Sunday identified three areas where the US could take additional steps to ramp up pressure on Russia as its war in Ukraine rages on: a ban on Russian oil imports, a declaration of war crimes, and help facilitating delivery of Polish fighter jets to Ukraine.

In separate answers in an interview on ABC News, Thomas-Greenfield mentioned those areas where the US was reviewing options and coordinating with allies.

She said President Biden was "in discussion with NATO allies" about a potential ban on Russian oil imports. "The President is working with his advisers, security advisers, as well as his energy advisers, on how to address these issues," she said, adding the White House is mindful of how such a ban might affect gas prices.

She said the US has been "in close consultations with the Polish government, as well as with our other NATO allies," on the notion of facilitating a transfer of Soviet-era fighter jets from Poland to Ukraine.

"We have not in any way opposed the Polish government providing these jets to Ukraine and we're working, as you noted, to see how we can backfill for them," she said, a reference to a plan being formulated to send F-16s to Poland.

  And, it might be worth pointing out that since no war has been declared, Russia can't claim some kind of exclusion of weapons to a belligerent ( which is in fact perfectly legal, ie the old law of war did not exclude neutrals from supplying belligerents anyway), and I guess if Russia declared war on Ukraine, it would be equivalent to recognizing Ukraine as a legitimate state -- which actually -- Putin more or less accidently did in 2014 by siezing only a few regions of Ukraine.  Why not the rest?  Isn't that a de facto recognition?  On the other hand, Turkey has already said the invasion of Ukraine is a war ("technically") so look out for some strait closure action maybe.

[GDS_Starfury]

dont know if Ive mentioned it before but check out warontherocks.com

[Jarhead0331]

  And, it might be worth pointing out that since no war has been declared, Russia can't claim some kind of exclusion of weapons to a belligerent ( which is in fact perfectly legal, ie the old law of war did not exclude neutrals from supplying belligerents anyway), and I guess if Russia declared war on Ukraine, it would be equivalent to recognizing Ukraine as a legitimate state -- which actually -- Putin more or less accidently did in 2014 by siezing only a few regions of Ukraine.  Why not the rest?  Isn't that a de facto recognition?  On the other hand, Turkey has already said the invasion of Ukraine is a war ("technically") so look out for some strait closure action maybe.

You've made this statement a couple times, about there having been no formal declaration of war, but I'm not sure of the relevance. The 1949 Geneva Convention applies with or without a formal declaration. Indeed, the Conventions apply to all cases of armed conflict between two or more signatory nations, even in the absence of a declaration of war.  Furthermore, although Putin has described the invasion as a "special Military Operation", I believe it is arguable that his statement as to the cause, intent and grounds for stopping it, might saitsfy the criteria for a formal declaration.