Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

does an era block have an expiration date?  or not function in extreme cold weather?

Doesn't the ERA end before the smoke dischargers and external stowage of the turret?  Also isn't this the area of the autoloader and ammunition?  These men will be highly trained marksmen and are they firing at 200-300m range and rear of turret?

[Uberhaus]

maybe on a good day have 50% work.

That's still nearly 3000.

[GDS_Starfury]

maybe on a good day have 50% work.

That's still nearly 3000.

with 3000 warheads, not launch vehicles, that then gets spread out into the russian triad.
with that most are still going to be ssbns.  Im willing to discount russian bombers doing fuck all.
so now were down to roughly 2500.  russia has 400 ICBM with 3 nukes each.  thats half of what they can deliver globally. 
Im not trying minimize the absolute suck of it all but I am looking at what the actual throw weight can realistically be.
these are the mental exercises I can afford myself because I have no kids.

[GDS_Starfury]

all about the bad idea of a no fly zone.
for the moment.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-dangerous-allure-of-the-no-fly-zone/

[Con]

This is one of the guys the Steve Lookner frequently uses as a a source.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500684324689133571?s=20&t=-1BwAJ8v9pkknEoe1l69Ow

Based on this it should be fair to say are several multiples that are not confirmed (2x or 3x at least).
Additionally the latest tally is over 17K antitank weapons have now been released to the Ukrainian side.  The Russian butcher bill is only going to get more expensive.

Plus a good logistic summary
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/how-ukraine-s-rail-network-threw-russia-s-military-off-track

[Uberhaus]

all about the bad idea of a no fly zone.
for the moment.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-dangerous-allure-of-the-no-fly-zone/

Yep.  Surely, you read my grand strategy work around that rightly got slapped down by the head honcho. 
I forgot that the enemy adversary always gets a vote and wouldn't turn around at the NATO border, willingly participating in its own demise.  Not to mention it was perverting Article 5.

From https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates-russia-interfering-at-ukraines-zaporizhzhia-plant-un-nuclear-watchdog-warns/ar-AAUFKqk?ocid=uxbndlbing

Russia warns against countries hosting Ukrainian aircraft
Russia on Sunday warned Ukraine's neighbours including NATO member Romania against hosting Kyiv's military aircraft, saying they could end up being involved in an armed conflict.

"We know for sure that Ukrainian combat aircraft have flown to Romania and other neighbouring countries," defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a video briefing.

"The use of the airfield network of these countries for basing Ukrainian military aviation with the subsequent use of force against Russia's army can be regarded as the involvement of these states in an armed conflict," he added.

Konashenkov also claimed that "practically all" Ukraine's combat-ready aircraft had been destroyed.

-AFP

Realpolitik is brutal.  Hopefully, the Ukrainians will be able to hold on until something breaks on the Russian side, but they will have to bear the brunt of Russian firepower, not to mention that tactical nuclear weapon usage is in their doctrine and remains a possibility. 

If the Russian regime survives intact, they will blame their losses on Western support including training, and weapons.  Probably even the war too.  Threats will continue. 

[ComradeP]

does an era block have an expiration date?  or not function in extreme cold weather?

Doesn't the ERA end before the smoke dischargers and external stowage of the turret?  Also isn't this the area of the autoloader and ammunition?  These men will be highly trained marksmen and are they firing at 200-300m range and rear of turret?

I'm not sure if they're "highly trained marksmen" with AT weapons. If it's really a police or paramilitary unit, how much training would they get with AT weapons? Maybe some since 2014, but it doesn't seem like a natural thing to train for a rapid response unit.

ERA doesn't offer 100% coverage, and hits against the same area might reduce the effectiveness of the ERA.

As the urban or ambush fighting is generally at close ranges, maybe the ERA doesn't work as well. Not all ERA works well against low or high velocity projectiles either.

If most tanks are using Kontakt-5 or other newer ERA, the performance seems questionable and does raise the question of how that's possible. I'm not seeing too many tandem charges in the videos I've been watching featuring RPG's.

[Uberhaus]

Round is pg-7v, tandem is pg-7vr which has smaller 1st charge before 2nd charge.
Marksmanship skills that make you proficient with a rifle should transfer to rpg-7.  They brewed the tank so they're at least getting otj training.  Ukraine gov't is posting info on where various vulnerabities of vehicles are and main gun is pointing up and away from Ukrainians so they're firing at the rear of the turret where there is no ERA coverage.

As to ERA malfunctioning it remains a possibility after long-term freezing outside or damage from sa, splinters, bad driving.  Don't know enough about explosives to comment on their thermal stability but if sensor of ERA has electronic component it may have been severely damaged by cold.

[GDS_Starfury]

[Jarhead0331]

maybe on a good day have 50% work.

That's still nearly 3000.

with 3000 warheads, not launch vehicles, that then gets spread out into the russian triad.
with that most are still going to be ssbns.  Im willing to discount russian bombers doing fuck all.
so now were down to roughly 2500.  russia has 400 ICBM with 3 nukes each.  thats half of what they can deliver globally. 
Im not trying minimize the absolute suck of it all but I am looking at what the actual throw weight can realistically be.
these are the mental exercises I can afford myself because I have no kids.

Let's not forget about the very real possibility of an emp blast over the continental United States. It's estimated that a single warhead, depending on yield, could take down most of our electronics, communications and power grids, effecting hundreds of millions, causing $1 to $2 trillion in damages and taking between 4 and 10 years to recover. Thus, our country could virtually be destroyed without directly killing a single soul. For the most part, we're completely defenseless to such an attack.

[GDS_Starfury]

I think that the effects of massive EMP blasts are going to be a lot less effective today then they would have 10 or 20 years ago.

[Uberhaus]

If ERA uses a piezoelectric effect it may be vulnerable to T extremes. 
Detonated by shockwave.  https://www.ecstuff4u.com/2019/07/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-piezoelectric-transducer.html?m=1  But the Russians would have tested for this.  Freeze and thaw can't be good.

But most importantly can a Pantsir-S1 pull a farm plow?

[GDS_Starfury]

did anyone catch the video of the russian infantry trapped in the elevator?   

These Russian soldiers wanted to get to the top of a building to recon the area. They used the elevator instead of the stairs, so the building manager turned off the power to the elevator between floors...

[ArizonaTank]

did anyone catch the video of the russian infantry trapped in the elevator?   

These Russian soldiers wanted to get to the top of a building to recon the area. They used the elevator instead of the stairs, so the building manager turned off the power to the elevator between floors...

:DD

[Gusington]

^Jesus Christ.

An EMP attack scares the crap out of me and Ted Keoppel.

https://amzn.to/3vJDamG