Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Sir Slash]

I'm thinking maybe Putin's transferring some of the Brainiacs who planned this war up front as a new way to institute, 'Early Retirement'. 

[GDS_Starfury]

so Poland is giving the US all of its Mig-29s in exchange for F-16s.
Im still not clear as to how the US is going to give them to the Ukraine.

FYI, Wikipedia says the Poles have 23 Mig-29's.

yes, and that doubles the size of their air force.

[steve58]

Just a thought, but if Russia insists on targeting civilians, I can see some strong attitude changes in Ukraine forces towards their aggressors as a consequence.

Well, the Ukrainians already had plenty good reasons to be p*ssed at the Russians, but this video is going to make them crazy mad. 

https://nypost.com/2022/03/08/russian-tank-obliterates-civilian-car-in-ukraine-video/

[al_infierno]

Unverified, but apparently the Russian warship that took out Snake Island just got sunk by an MLRS barrage.  Apparently Ukraine used a patrol boat to bait the warship into a presighted location and then blasted it.  The ship was built in 2014, making it one of Russia's latest.

EDIT - Actually, it was as patrol boat supporting the warship Moskva that got sunk, not the warship itself.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-warship-snake-island-attack-destroyed-report-says-2022-3?utm_source=reddit.com

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t8m7d9/supposed_footage_of_ukrainian_mlrs_hitting_a/

https://twitter.com/UkraineNews0/status/1500797392219688961

[GDS_Starfury]

Just a thought, but if Russia insists on targeting civilians, I can see some strong attitude changes in Ukraine forces towards their aggressors as a consequence.

Well, the Ukrainians already had plenty good reasons to be p*ssed at the Russians, but this video is going to make them crazy mad. 

https://nypost.com/2022/03/08/russian-tank-obliterates-civilian-car-in-ukraine-video/

theres a walk around video of the wreck that shows the 2 old people who died.  the right side of the car had a handicapped badge.

[FarAway Sooner]

Have we ever had a war streamed live before?  We certainly haven't had a war in Europe that was streamed live before.

I applaud Biden's decision to ban the purchase of Russian energy resources.  It'll have a minor impact on the US economy.  But it'll increase the public pressure on European leaders to do the same (and it will have a MUCH bigger impact on those countries' economies). 

I think one of the biggest political risks for European leaders is getting ahead of their citizens in terms of the economic sacrifices that they're willing to make.  I'm not saying that it should be.  Simply that this is the world that we live in.

I'm still not sure how you go about instituting regime change in a country with 3,000+ nuclear warheads.  I guess the answer is "very carefully..."

[W8taminute]

These sanctions are a double edged sword.  Sure they punish a nation that breaks international code of conduct but they also hurt the side that initiated the sanction.  People from both sides of this conflict are now going to suffer.  Case in point, gasoline (petrol) prices are skyrocketing or will skyrocket to unprecedented levels.

If it costs more money to drive your car or take a bus or train to work then the money your earn at work why work then?  No work, no money, no home, no food, goodnight irene. 

[ComradeP]

so Poland is giving the US all of its Mig-29s in exchange for F-16s.
Im still not clear as to how the US is going to give them to the Ukraine.

FYI, Wikipedia says the Poles have 23 Mig-29's.

yes, and that doubles the size of their air force.

It's bizarre that the delivery might go ahead after all.

Considering the availability of cruise missiles and advanced AA systems to Russian forces, if the Russians are serious about taking out the Ukrainian air force they can do so. Why they haven't done so thus far isn't entirely clear.

The likely impact of the aircraft on the war is dwarfed by the political, and in this case thus military, risks involved.

I have to admit, my faith in NATO members making the right decisions isn't particularly high right now.

[GDS_Starfury]

there are enough EW assets flying by the border that they could be both degrading russian ability to direct their planes while at the same time feeding information to Ukraine so they know where to use their aircraft.

[Uberhaus]

The Poles are shrewdly offering to fly the MiG-29s to Rammstein AB, rather than allowing them to fly from Poland to Ukraine.  Something not being mentioned is that it is eight years since Ukraine has operated MiG-29s.  The Ukrainians need the aircraft but delivering them will be very delicate.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/u-s-surprised-at-poland-s-decision-to-give-it-fighter-jets-for-ukraine/ar-AAUNCMb?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Poland's decision to put all its MiG-29 fighter jets at the disposal of the United States was "a surprise move" by Warsaw, the U.S. State Department's No. 3 diplomat said on Tuesday, after Ukraine asked European countries to provide aircraft to help it fight Russia's invasion.

"To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us," State Department Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing. "So I think that actually was a surprise move by the Poles," she said.

Poland is ready to deploy all its MiG-29 jets to Ramstein Air Base in Germany and put them at the disposal of the United States, and urges other NATO members that own planes of that type to do the same, the Polish Foreign Ministry said earlier.

[Uberhaus]

there are enough EW assets flying by the border that they could be both degrading russian ability to direct their planes while at the same time feeding information to Ukraine so they know where to use their aircraft.

[MengJiao]

It's bizarre that the delivery might go ahead after all.

Considering the availability of cruise missiles and advanced AA systems to Russian forces, if the Russians are serious about taking out the Ukrainian air force they can do so. Why they haven't done so thus far isn't entirely clear.

The likely impact of the aircraft on the war is dwarfed by the political, and in this case thus military, risks involved.

I have to admit, my faith in NATO members making the right decisions isn't particularly high right now.

  Well NATO is getting testy:

NATO's secretary general has warned that a Russian attack on the supply lines of allied nations supporting Ukraine with arms and munitions would be a dangerous escalation of the war raging in eastern Europe.

Jens Stoltenberg made the remarks Tuesday in an interview with CBC News as he, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the leaders of Spain and Latvia visited NATO's base and training range at Adazi, outside Latvia's capital Riga.

"The allies are helping Ukraine uphold their right for self defence, which is enshrined in the UN charter," Stoltenberg said after a meeting with Trudeau, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš at the Adazi base.

"Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is defending itself. If there is any attack against any NATO country, NATO territory, that will trigger Article 5."

  While NATO may be happy about the possible Mig transfer the US has said no.

  On a related note, the Russians are sometimes careful when hitting airfields not to crater the runways, one would guess so that their own aircraft can land there some time or other.

[JasonPratt]

I applaud Biden's decision to ban the purchase of Russian energy resources.  It'll have a minor impact on the US economy.

That's because Biden's administration is planning to beg Iran and Venezuela to sell us oil instead.

Venez, by the way, has been a direct ally of Russia for a long time. The Biden administration up until five minutes ago didn't even acknowledge Maduro as the legitimate president (if I recall correctly). Maybe Maduro will throw in some spare dogs from the street with every shipment of a hundred barrels he can send, to manage the bad optics of his own people eating them.

(Despite my bitter humor, I do agree banning the purchase of Russian energy is the right move.)

[JasonPratt]

This segment of the Lotus Eaters podcast today, featured a reference to an interesting article reminding everyone how catastrophically bad Russian maintenance programs are.

The article directly analyzes footage of broken vehicles against maintenance requirements from their manuals, forensically arguing that the self-inflating tire mechanisms (among many other things) haven't been properly serviced on a yearly basis, so now they're failing as expected. (This is aside from the question of the quality of the Chinese tires themselves, of course.)

[JasonPratt]

Some analysis a few days ago in a public interview at Oxford (sponsored by the Oxford Debate Society), from Sir Robert John Sawers, former British Permanent Representative to the UN, then chief of MI6 from 2009 until 2014, and also (afterward) former board member of British Petrol in their Russian operations.

Afterward, a three way panel debate was held on how to respond to the war, featuring "Mr Robert Brinkley CMG (Formerly HM Ambassador to Ukraine and Head of the Ukrainian Institute); Professor Neil MacFarlane (a world expert in the international relations of the Former Soviet Union and a professor at St. Anne's; Sir David Manning KCVO GCMG (Formerly a diplomat to Moscow, HM Ambassador to the United States, and foreign policy advisor to Tony Blair)"

Haven't had a chance to watch them all the way through myself, but wanted to share before they became completely outdated.  ::)