Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Sir Slash]

The U.S. ban on importing oil from Russia will do nothing to hurt their economy. Putin will simply sell it elsewhere like India or his new BFF, China. At $120-130 Dollars-a-barrel, it'll sell fast and to anybody because the price will only go higher from here. Meanwhile here in the U.S. gas will certainly hit $6-7 Dollars a gallon by summer, resulting in our economy going into the toilet instead. Who's the big winner here? China. If the West destroys Putin, China loses a potential threat on their border. If Putin destroys Ukraine and divides Europe, China gets stronger. If they destroy each other, China gets very much stronger. There's almost no way this turn-out China doesn't benefit. Which is probably why they're doing it don't you imagine?

[GDS_Starfury]

I applaud Biden's decision to ban the purchase of Russian energy resources.  It'll have a minor impact on the US economy.

That's because Biden's administration is planning to beg Iran and Venezuela to sell us oil instead.

Venez, by the way, has been a direct ally of Russia for a long time. The Biden administration up until five minutes ago didn't even acknowledge Maduro as the legitimate president (if I recall correctly). Maybe Maduro will throw in some spare dogs from the street with every shipment of a hundred barrels he can send, to manage the bad optics of his own people eating them.

(Despite my bitter humor, I do agree banning the purchase of Russian energy is the right move.)

you cant help yourself can you?  I recommend you turn of fox news once in a while.

[GDS_Starfury]

@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

[Uberhaus]

https://www.theonion.com/things-to-never-say-to-a-child-about-nuclear-war-1848614175   
My now adult child found this very helpful.
Now I am become dearth, I guess.

[Zulu1966]

@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

Yeah - I agree - there is a course of events that plays out - Putin gets offed by someone - the russian people seeing a glint of light revolt at the appearance of a new just as dictatorial leader but not quite so mad - revolt replaces the leadership with a democratically elected leader - russia becomes a fully functioning democracy and puts the full weight of its people and brains behind it and makes a staggering contribution to the good of man over the next twenty years.

Unlikely yes - but always a possibility.

[steve58]

Trouble brewing at Chernobyl. 

[MengJiao]

@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

  Signs of some realism...some kind of ceasefire and maybe the Russians just want the Crimea and that's it, maybe.  Of course the basic problem remains that there's no way to guarantee that the
Russians will actually do anything they say...for example, actually cease firing or actually not kill Zelensky or actually leave or actually not attack again even if they ever do leave.  This is where
it becomes clear that the Russians have trapped themselves by attacking a country with no allies: no external forces can guarantee any agreements.  Obviously what was in place before was not sufficient
so the Russians will have to work out some allies for the Ukrainians or stay in Ukraine for a few decades or both.  Or they could build up the Ukrainian forces so that Ukraine doesn't care what Russia does (unlikely, but maybe the easiest solution after all).

[Uberhaus]

@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

  Signs of some realism...some kind of ceasefire and maybe the Russians just want the Crimea and that's it, maybe.  Of course the basic problem remains that there's no way to guarantee that the
Russians will actually do anything they say...for example, actually cease firing or actually not kill Zelensky or actually leave or actually not attack again even if they ever do leave.  This is where
it becomes clear that the Russians have trapped themselves by attacking a country with no allies: no external forces can guarantee any agreements.  Obviously what was in place before was not sufficient
so the Russians will have to work out some allies for the Ukrainians or stay in Ukraine for a few decades or both.  Or they could build up the Ukrainian forces so that Ukraine doesn't care what Russia does (unlikely, but maybe the easiest solution after all).

Russia has controlled Crimea since 2014.  The list of demands are as follows:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-will-stop-in-a-moment-if-ukraine-meets-terms-kremlin/ar-AAUJ7gH?ocid=uxbndlbing

LONDON (Reuters) -Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

I'm pretty positive the Russians will want a land bridge to Crimea and from there to Transdniester and 'wish' for controlling all of the Black Sea coast as well as Kharkiv.  These are things Ukraine will never accept. 

[Anguille]

Russia has controlled Crimea since 2014.

They want it to be officially recognised as being Russian.

[Uberhaus]

Russia has controlled Crimea since 2014.

They want it to be officially recognised as being Russian.

and not have Ukraine try and take it back, if they hadn't been preempted.  The ammunition depot explosions in 2017 reduced Ukraine's opportunity for retaking their territory.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Kalynivka_ammunition_depot_explosion
The sabotage has been attributed to a drone attack.  https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/huge-kalynivka-arms-dump-blast-was-sabotage-by-drone-d8cnxrghs

[MengJiao]

@ slash:  or theres a new government in russia by summer and a whole new world order.
you old ppl are always so negative.

  Signs of some realism...some kind of ceasefire and maybe the Russians just want the Crimea and that's it, maybe.  Of course the basic problem remains that there's no way to guarantee that the
Russians will actually do anything they say...for example, actually cease firing or actually not kill Zelensky or actually leave or actually not attack again even if they ever do leave.  This is where
it becomes clear that the Russians have trapped themselves by attacking a country with no allies: no external forces can guarantee any agreements.  Obviously what was in place before was not sufficient
so the Russians will have to work out some allies for the Ukrainians or stay in Ukraine for a few decades or both.  Or they could build up the Ukrainian forces so that Ukraine doesn't care what Russia does (unlikely, but maybe the easiest solution after all).

Russia has controlled Crimea since 2014.  The list of demands are as follows:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-will-stop-in-a-moment-if-ukraine-meets-terms-kremlin/ar-AAUJ7gH?ocid=uxbndlbing

LONDON (Reuters) -Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

I'm pretty positive the Russians will want a land bridge to Crimea and from there to Transdniester and 'wish' for controlling all of the Black Sea coast as well as Kharkiv.  These are things Ukraine will never accept.

  I think those are the old terms.  There are hints that Russia will eventually be satisfied with hanging on to what it had before the war.  Obviously Ukraine can't "demilitarize" and can't enshrine
neutrality now that Russia has attacked them.  That worked with Austria in 1955, but then the place was fully occupied by allied powers including Russia.  You can't insist on demilitarizing a place you've just attacked (though that sort of worked for the Russians in Georgia in 2008...I doubt it will work for ending the war in Ukraine.).

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, said Wednesday that he does not have "high expectations" for his scheduled meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Turkey on Thursday.

    Talking in Turkey seems like a positive sign.  Turkey needs to have this war stop ASAP AND Turkey can act as a guaranteer (NATO-by-the-Black-Sea-Back-Door) and has plenty of clout with Russia-Syria-Iran.
    Also i just noticed, while playing South China Sea, that Vietnam is sort of an ally of the USA and Russia.  I guess that's a sweet spot at the moment.  No, really!

[Gusington]

Turkey and Iran have good relations?

[Con]

Food for thought - this is my area of expertise since I am responsible on scaling up biotech industries into commercial sized manufacturing so I deal with many of the same issues.
 
The problem statement is that we have not invested in our arms manufacturing of critical weapons such as stingers and javelins.  Basically once the safety stock of missiles is done we could be in a world of hurt getting these critical weapons into armories.

For the first time in decades these sites will need to start overnight scaling upto wartime production.  We are facing a potential serious bottleneck since we dont have any business continuity plans (second site sourcing, raw material inventory, six sigma mfg at wartime scale etc) and manufacturing is on old/aging/mothballed equipment with limited operator experience.
 
Lastly dont be surprised it we suddenly see some "industrial" accidents at these sites.  Its very easy to sabotage internally or externally these sites and a critical piece of equipment or line going down could put us months if not years behind in manufacturing.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines-use-of-stinger-and-javelin-missiles-is-outstripping-us-production/?sh=3a9e85ba2409

[Gusington]

These Ukrainians have giant balls:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60670173

"I don't know how to count the number of people protesting, I thought it was 2,000 at least," said Yunona, a 29-year-old IT worker in the southern city of Kherson. "One of our friends was beaten and taken by the Russian soldiers and people got so angry they chased the occupiers down the street and took him back."

[MengJiao]

Turkey and Iran have good relations?

  They seem to be getting along.  And this is the kind of realistic politics that Turkey can inject and probably bring along some NATO-Syria-Iran buzz to make it all shiny.  Gotta get the Russians
something for their evil schemes: how about a brand new economic deal with Iran or something?