Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

from what Ive read the russians are using regular cell phones to communicate with each other.

So are Ukrainians. The Russians are mostly using cheap unincrypted baofengs.

IMHO, while tactically the unencrypted handsets would cause problems for some of the company sized maneuver units, the movement of HVUs would be discussed via encrypted networks.  On the Other Hand, the Ukrainians have captured enough prisoners/deserters/equipment that maybe the encrypted networks have been compromised.  On the Other, Other Hand, that gets back to poor OPSEC: if you are losing comms gear, you need to change your codes

Their rations expired in 2015 and you expect them to have encrypted comms gear and to observe OPSEC?

From 2016, a malware hack of Ukrainian artillery cell phone app caused countery-battery fire.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-hacking-proves-lethal-after-ukrainian-military-app-compromised/

Basically, malware turned the phones using the app into beacons. Those beacons were then used to target Ukrainian military units.

I'm surprised that cell phones are even used on the battlefield, but amongst other problems, Russian EW doesn't appear to be much of a threat. 

[Tripoli]

from what Ive read the russians are using regular cell phones to communicate with each other.

So are Ukrainians. The Russians are mostly using cheap unincrypted baofengs.

IMHO, while tactically the unencrypted handsets would cause problems for some of the company sized maneuver units, the movement of HVUs would be discussed via encrypted networks.  On the Other Hand, the Ukrainians have captured enough prisoners/deserters/equipment that maybe the encrypted networks have been compromised.  On the Other, Other Hand, that gets back to poor OPSEC: if you are losing comms gear, you need to change your codes

Their rations expired in 2015 and you expect them to have encrypted comms gear and to observe OPSEC?

Fair point.  But I would argue (from the perspective of a Russian general) there is a difference between feeding the men moldy food and having poor encryption when the General's life is at stake.  I would assume that they have some good encryption capabilities at least at the BTG+ level (although they evidently don't at the company and below level, and possibly the BTG level.  This has been a surprise to me, as I would have thought that such a major shortcoming would have been identified and corrected in the fighting since 2014.  That, and the fact is completely obvious based on a thousand years of military history.). 

With all of this said, many of my personal assumptions about the quality of Russian ground forces has been challenged in the last 15 days.  (as an aside on that, I'm not alone.  The assumptions of many professional analysts have been shaken.  In fact, "Putin's Excellent Ukrainian Adventure" may  globally have caused such a radical reevaluation of Russian military capabilities soas to imperil Russia's geopolitical power. For a semi-contrarian view, see Michael Kofman, who argues not to go overboard on downplaying Russian military capabilities as the result of the Russia's performance in the Ukraine war.)

[Pete Dero]

Me and some of the boys made the decision to join the UFL and are leaving next week to go fight.

See you cats on the flip side.

Stay safe.

[Uberhaus]

pretty easy low hanging fruit on the bio labs:

https://www.bbc.com/news/60711705?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_custom2=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=75FF11D8-A17A-11EC-BA2A-72C9923C408C&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom3=%40BBCWorld

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/11/how-right-embraced-russian-disinformation-about-us-bioweapons-labs-ukraine/

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/25/tweets/there-are-no-us-run-biolabs-ukraine-contrary-socia/

https://ua.usembassy.gov/embassy/kyiv/sections-offices/defense-threat-reduction-office/biological-threat-reduction-program/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/us-bioweapons-ukraine-misinformation.html

Yes, but sometimes chicanery can be a good thing, especially for peace.  I think the UN missed an opportunity to propose a ceasefire to Russia or at least score propaganda points.  Better to have everyone squabbling at a table and engaged in a wild goose chase for WMDs.  Especially so with the Russian military's options running out. 

For such a proposal, the worst that Russia could do would be to reject it, and then how would they look.  The action chosen would also make the Russian's true motives for the invasion transparent.

To be vulgar, to put a stop to the fighting and further escalation, everyone will have 'to eat some shit.'

[W8taminute]

I wonder if the Russian army ineptness is really just a ploy to give them an excuse to use the weapons no one wants to talk about. 

[W8taminute]

Me and some of the boys made the decision to join the UFL and are leaving next week to go fight.

See you cats on the flip side.

Stay safe.

Yes, stay safe.

[MengJiao]

This has been a surprise to me, as I would have thought that such a major shortcoming would have been identified and corrected in the fighting since 2014.  That, and the fact is completely obvious based on a thousand years of military history.). 

  Remember that since 2003, they have been mostly fighting pretty unsophisticated groups (Chechens, Syrians, Georgians, Crimean Tartars etc.) AND they expected Ukraine to fall even easier than say
Syrian rebels.  In fact Syria would be the bulk of their recent experience, so they may have been pretty confident of whatever they were using.

  And no surprise here:

From CNN's Maija Ehlinger

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned the United States about the potential consequences of transferring weapons to Ukraine, saying convoys with foreign weapons would be "legitimate targets."

Ryabkov made these comments on Saturday on the state-run Channel One, according to Russia's state-owned RIA Novosti news agency.

"We warned the United States that pumping Ukraine with weapons from a number of countries orchestrated by them is not just a dangerous move, but these are actions that turn the corresponding convoys into legitimate targets," he added.

[Gusington]

"Putin's Excellent Ukrainian Adventure" would be hilarious if the situation wasn't so dire.

Tripoli, who is Michael Kofman?

[GDS_Starfury]

hes a pretty decent defense analyst.

[Gusington]

^Gotcha, searching now

[GDS_Starfury]

while the other maps I linked are a great overview the daily updates from this feed are still the most accurate.

[Dammit Carl!]

Me and some of the boys made the decision to join the UFL and are leaving next week to go fight.

See you cats on the flip side.

Give 'em hell.

[Jarhead0331]

Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after failed attacks March 8-10. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv. Russian advances from Crimea toward Mykolayiv and Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made no progress in the last 24 hours, and Russian forces in the south face growing morale and supply issues. The Ukrainian General Staff asserted Russia has so far failed to take its territorial objectives for the war and will likely increasingly turn to strikes on civilian targets and psychological operations to undermine civilian support for the Ukrainian government.[1] Uncoordinated and sporadic Russian offensive operations against major Ukrainian cities support the Ukrainian General Staff's assessment that Russian forces face growing morale and supply issues and have lost the initiative. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 11 that Ukrainian forces are "actively defending and conducting successful counterattacks in all directions," but did not state where reported counterattacks are occurring.[2]

The Kremlin likely seeks to increase its combat power by drawing Belarus into the war and leveraging Syrian proxies, in addition to ongoing efforts to directly replace Russian combat losses through individual conscripts that are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate effective new combat power. Putin is reportedly conducting an internal purge of general offers and intelligence personnel and recalibrating Russia's war effort to sustain combat operations far longer than the Kremlin initially planned. Russia likely requires a new wave of combat-effective reservists or recruits in a short period of time to achieve its objectives in Ukraine but is unlikely to be able to generate such a wave. Russian aircraft likely conducted an attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian territory on March 11. The Kremlin is likely pressuring Belarus to enter the war in Ukraine to support Russian forces, though Belarusian President Lukashenko is likely attempting to delay or prevent his entry into the war to avoid costly Western sanctions and Belarusian combat losses. The Kremlin additionally announced plans on March 11 to deploy foreign fighters, including up to 16,000 Syrian fighters, to Ukraine. The Kremlin is highly unlikely to abandon its continuing main effort to encircle and capture Kyiv and will continue to feed replacements and reinforcements into this operation.

Key Takeaways

    Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours and Russian forces conducted another pause to resupply and refit frontline units.

    Russian forces did not secure any new territory in northeastern Ukraine and may be redeploying forces attacking eastern Kyiv to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks in Sumy Oblast.
    Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.

    Ukrainian forces halted Russian advances north and west from Crimea as Russian forces face growing supply and morale issues.

    Russian aircraft likely conducted an attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian territory on March 11 in an effort to draw Belarus into the war.
    The Kremlin announced plans to deploy foreign fighters, including up to 16,000 Syrian fighters, to Ukraine.

    Putin reportedly fired several generals and arrested FSB intelligence officers in an internal purge.

    Ukrainian forces killed the commander of Russia's 29th Combined Arms Army. High casualties among Russian general officers indicate the poor quality of Russian command and control, requiring Russian generals to deploy forward and risk Ukrainian fire to command their forces.

    Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11

[Jarhead0331]

Wow...I'm now tracking an IL76 that departed the Moscow area and is now off the northern coast of Cyprus heading for Syria. Any guess what it is picking up?  Amazing how you can correlate air movement with headlines in the news.

[FarAway Sooner]

I wonder if the Russian army ineptness is really just a ploy to give them an excuse to use the weapons no one wants to talk about.

I wouldn't attribute to malice anything that can be attributed to incompetence.  There's no reason Putin would want to go nuclear if he could accomplish the same things tactically.  Clearly, he badly underestimated the Ukrainians vis a vis his own troops.

For most organizations--and the Russian army is no different--the fish rots from the head.  If the guys at the top don't have competence as their top priority, that will permeate the organization.  The Soviet Union of the 80s toppled because of cronyism, corruption, and incompetence.  It's unclear that Putin's Kleptocracy is any more competent when they're actually put up against a well-armed, well-organized opponent.

If the Russian army is now trying to bring in auxiliaries from Syria and Belarus, that doesn't speak well to any alternatives they might have.  It does sound like the Russians have started to make some progress around Kyiv, but the fog of war obviously presents us from being too certain of anything.