Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

Ive seen a lot of photos like this and cant help but visualize the inter-German border in 1987

[ComradeP]

I tried to find some footage or photos showing the same road at various points since the invasion, but couldn't find any. No way for me to prove or disprove that (sections of) major roads are already seriously degraded.

[GDS_Starfury]

oh there are twitter feeds that seem to use black magic to geo-locate events.

[ComradeP]

I know, but I haven't been able to find footage of the same road section every, say, 2-3 days since the invasion.

[GDS_Starfury]

live feeds pushes things 2 days ago into the abyss.
my old ass has pretty damn good google-fu and its fucking hard to keep up.

[al_infierno]

Video of a Russian column ambushed at the exact spot where you fight CMBS "Shield of Kiev" Campaign Mission 1

It is at the northern end of the map. And just up the road is where you fight the second mission.

https://www.google.com/maps/@50.6150624,30.8613714,3a,75y,333.42h,99.38t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sAF1QipPYqX5miNjEJOA0OPP88iImGUXDHx2qLsiPv5R\_!2e10!3e11!7i5120!8i2560

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatMission/comments/tcd2fg/video_of_a_russian_column_ambushed_at_the_exact/

[Rekim]

[GDS_Starfury]

a great thread on the logistic problems the soviets are having

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1502732464980172802

[ComradeP]

Indeed, some good maps there showing Russian supply limitations.

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The Russians had been rotating "volunteers" in the separatist regions since 2014 just like the Ukrainians have been rotating army units to give them some combat experience. The Russians seem to be unable to put that experience to good use, maybe because the volunteers were not sent across the border as organized units.

On the other hand, the experience has made the Ukrainian army a formidable opponent, whilst many Western experts expected it to perform only slightly better than the third rate force it was in 2014.

[GDS_Starfury]

the maps arent the important part of the thread.

[W8taminute]

Very interesting Rekim.  Thanks for sharing.

[Con]

So another question
Russia defaults
Ruble becomes worthless.  Economy contracts massive unemployment etc etc for the next 5+ years
How does Russia maintain control of Crimea and separatists regions with a shattered economy?  Can't replace military equipment. Pay soldiers mercenaries. Put money into Crimea
If this was Distant worlds a rebuilt Ukrainian economy would readsorb them due to influence and wealth.

Con

[GDS_Starfury]

chinese investment

[Uberhaus]

So another question
Russia defaults
Ruble becomes worthless.  Economy contracts massive unemployment etc etc for the next 5+ years
How does Russia maintain control of Crimea and separatists regions with a shattered economy?  Can't replace military equipment. Pay soldiers mercenaries. Put money into Crimea
If this was Distant worlds a rebuilt Ukrainian economy would readsorb them due to influence and wealth.

Con

Russia moves closer to China.  From the Black Lord himself:  https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-in-ukraine-the-stakes-could-not-be-higher-for-the-west
Conrad Black argues that a negotiated settlement would result in Russia moving away from China.  For the record, I will state that I don't agree with his opinion of the benefits of such a settlement.  He doesn't make it clear (for a national readership) that no matter what the outcome, Russia is a long time from any rapprochement.  However, I will use his historical acumen to support an argument that a crippled Russia falls under Chinese influence.

Belarus is in hand, and the retrieval of the Russian-speaking provinces of Ukraine would restore almost 15 per cent of that state to Russia, which would increase Russia's population and its perceived strength.
Such an outcome as this would also lead quite quickly to Russian disillusionment with the status of being a junior partner of China, a country that is notoriously overbearing and either subordinates or constantly skirmishes with neighbours whom it judges insufficiently deferential. After the relaxation of its artificial dalliance with Beijing, Russia could revert to its traditional struggle between the nativist and western emulative factions of its society. The West would then be free to pursue constructively a gradually closer relationship with Russia, with whom the West would no longer have any serious disagreements.

[Jarhead0331]

Good analysis by Ward.