Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

  Apparently Elon Musk really hit some nerves or something:

"I am sure that Elon Musk can send Putin to Jupiter," Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov wrote before sharing a link to a website taking donations to "Send Putin to Jupiter."

Just as long as the stakes on the duel do not allow Putin to get his hands on Bezo's rockets to ride on.  Artist's depiction deliberately omitted.

[MikeGER]

Well, it's all fun and giggles with those Russian fuck-ups on YT and Twitter vids.
But we, with our Western imprinted view on losses, supply and attrition, should not make the mistake of underestimating the Russian (government and high rank militaries) will to just suck it up and shrug it off. What's another 10, 20 or 30 battalion tactical groups in the grinder. 

Losses, that in our book would be a minor catastrophy, where some high rank officer would be hold accountable and to blame, war support petering away fast at the always contested Homefront, media and talking heads going apeshit at prime time, politicians thinking about their (re)election and yellow press joining in with a constant stream of sob-stories like "He got killed the hour his baby was born at home"  just don't matter to Putin and his inner circle of yes sayers.

As long as the front line is creeping forward, even so slowly and slower as expected, but the war goals (of official getting handed over the Crimea, all the space east of the Dnieper,  probably Odessa and denying Ukraine access to the Black Sea, and especially no NATO or Western military bases in the rump-Ukraine) are still reachable, there will be no substantial ceasefire.   

[Uberhaus]

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/not-out-woods-yet-assessing-operational-situation-ukraine

going back to the main threat of this article.  I dont think, given the evidence so far, that the soviets have the logistics to pull off the encirclement.

Nor the ability.  From RUSI as well.  https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/just-how-tall-are-russian-soldiers

Russian military performance has been spectacularly poor in Ukraine. At the tactical level, Russian units have showed an inability to follow basic military procedures. They have failed to prove routes, have advanced in densely packed groups of vehicles, have tended to lose momentum when engaged, and been road bound, neither screening their flanks with patrols nor setting up their air defences. The force has shown a very limited capacity to operate in combined arms groupings. In contact, Russian units have behaved erratically and have lacked coordination when under fire. Bizarrely, many Russian units have not even taken precautions that would be consistent with a desire for self-preservation, leading to an unsustainable level of personnel and equipment losses.

The article continues on to discuss the incompetence of commanders and at the operational and strategic level.  I was very surprised at how badly the Russians have performed, I'll eat my hat if the Russian military manages to envelope the Joint Forces Operation fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk. 

Also, NATO is providing intelligence and has a vested interest in Ukraine staying in the fight, and will definitely tell the Ukrainians it is time to go. 

Archived from WSJ:  https://archive.ph/MXY2G

U.S. officials said the classified information now streaming across secure communications portals includes detailed, tactical data on Russian troop movements that is designed to help Ukraine formulate a military response. They declined to be more specific, citing the classified nature of the exchange.
One U.S. official said the intelligence data first must be scrubbed to remove clues about how it was collected, leading to delays in sharing it with the Ukrainians.

[Pete Dero]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/europe/ukraine-russian-prisoners-of-war-intl/index.html

Another soldier held by the Ukrainians told a separate media briefing of his artillery unit's entry from Belarus down the road to Chernihiv. He teared up as he spoke of meeting locals who told his unit to go home, and said, "There are no fascists here."
He also spoke of confusion among units. His group became stuck in a swamp and had to destroy their infantry fighting vehicle. They wandered on foot for several days before reaching a village and surrendering after an exchange of fire.
Another Russian soldier -- in a video released by Ukrainian media -- said he had crossed from Crimea on the first night of the offensive.
The unnamed soldier, who said he was 22 years old and gave his unit's number, said it was soon obvious that "we are not here as peacekeepers, but to fight. We asked commanders what the f**k we are doing here. We couldn't turn around and leave. Behind were the echelons [units] that kill deserters."
The soldier said, "We were told there were no civilians in every settlement. But they were there. It worried us.
"We had already realized that missiles were flying at the civilian population, against ordinary towns but not on military facilities. Although we were told quite the opposite. So, we surrendered."

This can't be confirmed but this is terrible if true.

And it is not that this hasn't happened before : Order 227 - July 27, 1943 (what came to be known as the "Not one step backward" order) : panic makers and cowards must be liquidated on the spot.

[Tripoli]

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-mulls-sending-new-switchblade-kamikaze-robot-drone-ukraine

The US is considering sending small kamikaze drones to the Ukraine.  From the above article, these have a 50 mile range, and a small warhead, but IMHO, if provided in quantity (and in sufficient time) and used to target the Russian logistics, could completely snarl the Russians for months

  It's odd that they are called "kamikaze" since one doesn't call much more highly intelligent cruise missiles "Kamikaze"...Apparently, the drone has some kind of honorary consciousness since (I guess)
you can see things from its point of view.

I think it is just a short hand way of describing this as an expendable drone.  A missile is assumed to be expendable, while a drone is generally presumed to be reusable.  Adding the admittedly colorful description "Kamikaze" properly identifies this as an expendable drone, intended as a piece of ordnance.

[MengJiao]

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-mulls-sending-new-switchblade-kamikaze-robot-drone-ukraine

The US is considering sending small kamikaze drones to the Ukraine.  From the above article, these have a 50 mile range, and a small warhead, but IMHO, if provided in quantity (and in sufficient time) and used to target the Russian logistics, could completely snarl the Russians for months

  It's odd that they are called "kamikaze" since one doesn't call much more highly intelligent cruise missiles "Kamikaze"...Apparently, the drone has some kind of honorary consciousness since (I guess)
you can see things from its point of view.

I think it is just a short hand way of describing this as an expendable drone.  A missile is assumed to be expendable, while a drone is generally presumed to be reusable.  Adding the admittedly colorful description "Kamikaze" properly identifies this as an expendable drone, intended as a piece of ordnance.

Right.  I'm overthinking it.  Still it is a nice way to think of differnt ways of picturing AI or guidance systems.

[Sir Slash]

And at $6000.00 a piece, I can even afford a couple. I wonder if they take Mastercard?

[Tripoli]

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-mulls-sending-new-switchblade-kamikaze-robot-drone-ukraine

The US is considering sending small kamikaze drones to the Ukraine.  From the above article, these have a 50 mile range, and a small warhead, but IMHO, if provided in quantity (and in sufficient time) and used to target the Russian logistics, could completely snarl the Russians for months

  It's odd that they are called "kamikaze" since one doesn't call much more highly intelligent cruise missiles "Kamikaze"...Apparently, the drone has some kind of honorary consciousness since (I guess)
you can see things from its point of view.

I think it is just a short hand way of describing this as an expendable drone.  A missile is assumed to be expendable, while a drone is generally presumed to be reusable.  Adding the admittedly colorful description "Kamikaze" properly identifies this as an expendable drone, intended as a piece of ordnance.

Right.  I'm overthinking it.  Still it is a nice way to think of differnt ways of picturing AI or guidance systems.

Back in the day, this gear would have been described as:
(1) Ordnance, guided, aerial, remotely-piloted, short-range, single-use, man-portable. 

However, this nomenclature was subsequently ruled as a war crime by gammarians.   :)

[Tripoli]

And at $6000.00 a piece, I can even afford a couple. I wonder if they take Mastercard?

Helpful board tip: Don't piss off Sir Slash..... :D

[ArizonaTank]

Interesting video that attempts to balance the Ukrainian skew of coverage, with some Russian viewpoints. He is not pro-Russian by any means. But he makes the valid point that by only looking at Ukrainian sources, we risk under-estimating Russian operations.

So there are reports of Russians capturing a cache of Javelins and apparently turning them on the Ukrainians. Several Ukrainian units getting hit hard. And he shows how some of the slow Russian advance is so that they can build fuel pipelines.

Also shows how that same column of Russian tanks that bunched up last week in an ambush, had another group who reacted much better to a similar attack.

I find this guy "cappy" to be interesting. Former Army infantry guy has some good analysis of the war, and frankly I think he knows more about what he is talking about than 80% of the talking heads out there; but I can't say I always agree with him. He has a well-established YouTube channel that talks about the nuts and bolts pretty well.

There is some silliness that he interjects from time to time, but get past that and he has some good thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igq2fqa7RY4

[Jarhead0331]

Interesting video that attempts to balance the Ukrainian skew of coverage, with some Russian viewpoints. He is not pro-Russian by any means. But he makes the valid point that by only looking at Ukrainian sources, we risk under-estimating Russian operations.

So there are reports of Russians capturing a cache of Javelins and apparently turning them on the Ukrainians. Several Ukrainian units getting hit hard. And he shows how some of the slow Russian advance is so that they can build fuel pipelines.

Also shows how that same column of Russian tanks that bunched up last week in an ambush, had another group who reacted much better to a similar attack.

I find this guy "cappy" to be interesting. Former Army infantry guy has some good analysis of the war, and frankly I think he knows more about what he is talking about than 80% of the talking heads out there; but I can't say I always agree with him. He has a well-established YouTube channel that talks about the nuts and bolts pretty well.

There is some silliness that he interjects from time to time, but get past that and he has some good thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igq2fqa7RY4

I think his overall point is well taken and valid. Certainly something that should be analyzed. However, I think the overwhelming evidence from credible sources is that the Russian army is significantly under performing due to several obvious weaknesses. Certainly, the Russian army is making progress on various fronts...that much is apparent just from looking at the map. It is also apparent that Ukraine is sustaining losses. I don't think anyone in the media has really suggested that Ukraine has this one in the bag. To the contrary, I think the military situation is being reported as dire and in need of immediate NATO assistance...for better or for worse.

[ComradeP]

The focus on Russian tactical defeats make it difficult to track what state the Ukrainian army is in. Hard to find information on Ukrainian casualties in regular army units as well.

-

Some more images from the Mariupoel front.

The look of the partially destroyed and abandoned buildings is like Stalker (the movie and the games), but this is unfortunately very real.

[al_infierno]

Russian police arrest a woman on camera for holding a sign that says "two words" (code for "no war")..... then promptly arrest another women who approaches to voice support for Putin's invasion.   #:-)   

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-woman-protest-blank-sign-arrest-b2035270.html

[GDS_Starfury]

the Oryx feed on twitter does an outstanding job of keeping a running tally on both sides forces.  Ive mentioned it before so I dont know why your wouldnt use it when data mining.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop

and how about that putin speech today!  hes going full adolf, and you never go full adolf!

[MengJiao]

the Oryx feed on twitter does an outstanding job of keeping a running tally on both sides forces.  Ive mentioned it before so I dont know why your wouldnt use it when data mining.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop

and how about that putin speech today!  hes going full adolf, and you never go full adolf!

  I missed his speech, but the Russians aren't answering their deconfliction phones anyway:

NATO has tried to reach Russia unsuccessfully via deconfliction hotline
From CNN's Natasha Bertrand

NATO has tried unsuccessfully to connect with Russia via a deconfliction hotline and written letters as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spread further west toward NATO territory, senior NATO military officials said on Wednesday.

"We are trying to communicate with them of course," one of the officials told reporters in a briefing at NATO headquarters. "But it requires two [sides] to communicate."

The US also has a separate deconfliction hotline with Russia that it has tested and has determined is functioning but has not yet used in practice, officials have said.

The officials' comments followed Russia's attacks on a Ukrainian military base earlier this week just 10 miles from the Polish border, which raised concerns about the conflict potentially spilling over into a NATO member country.

The current assessment of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander of Europe Gen. Tod Wolters, the officials said, is that "currently there is no threat to NATO as such. Not a deliberate threat by Russia. Russia is occupied for the time being with Ukraine."

But there are of course risks, the officials added, which is why there are now discussions about moving NATO's defensive systems further east.

  So move the defensives further east. Maybe they will answer the phone then.

Meanwhile, in other news the news is pretty mixed -- the Ukrainians seem to be counterattacking and rescuing mayors and such while the
Russians seem to be busy killing lots of people -- just cuz.  How long is it going to take them to take all of Ukraine?  Months at this rate.