Russia's War Against Ukraine

[bobarossa]

I find the whole conscription thing weird.   Don't the Russians have several million in the reserves?

[JasonPratt]

Welp, those people calling for a three-week invasion-supply limit (or less) have turned out to be correct! Time for sitzkrieg! Strictly speaking, Putin should have more shells for that than Guderian did (or whoever coined that term 3 weeks into Barbarossa.)

I was a little surprised to hear that Odessa had not in fact been taken. Not very surprised, but a little -- the basic news account seemed to be that it was held as a secured beachhead but nothing much was happening there. I'm glad for Ukraine that they may have to withdraw or be destroyed (shades of Gallipoli!)

[ArizonaTank]

Interesting piece on current actions of the Ukrainian Air Force. Apparently still flying missions out of obscure airstrips in western Ukraine. The article says 10 sorties a day, vs. 200 Russian. The Ukrainians are claiming 97 Russian fixed wing aircraft shot down.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-ukraine-s-outgunned-air-force-is-fighting-back-against-russian-jets/ar-AAVmcbe?ocid=msedgntp

[JasonPratt]

I find the whole conscription thing weird.   Don't the Russians have several million in the reserves?

My guess is that they need those reserves doing other things right now (especially in agriculture and industry), whereas they think they just need bodies to hold ground and super young/old green troops would do well enough for that in their calculus. In any case, Putin is headbutting hard against Shaposhnikov's maxim: "Don't play games with mobilization."

Relatedly, though, it has been about a week since that armored division from the Far East sector was deployed westward, right? I wonder where it ended up, or if it's even ready for action yet?

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, I'm back to wondering this morning if Putin should have pulled a Montgomery and launched two mutually supporting parallel thrusts toward a target (presumably Kiev?) rather than, as I half-joked earlier, playing a "Dumbledore Gambit" and throwing out a bunch of plots to see which ones might work out for opportunistic exploitation. (And/or shown off "hey look at all the combined ops I know how to do!")

A Monty Gambit would have certainly simplified and focused his invasion logistics, even though it would have allowed Ukraine to focus its own defense efforts (but that's why you throw two strong mutually supporting punches, creating localized flanking opportunities and securing an air corridor.)

This is more like the Allies deciding to invade Italy from Sicily AND invade southern France AND invade Normandy at the same time. In 1943. (Granted, there were emergency plans to do that if Stalin started collapsing, but still no one was eager to try it. Except Stalin, somewhat understandably. ;) )

[ArizonaTank]

Today I learned Russia and Japan never formally ended World War II.   :o

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-japan-peace-treaty-ukraine-invasion/31763675.html

I lived in Japan in the '90s, and even then, the fate of the Kuriles would come into every-day conversation with older Japanese; these folks were not fans of the Russians. I am guessing that the issue is out of the public consciousness these days however. 

[JudgeDredd]

Does no one else think he's going to cut Ukraine in half by troops joining from the south and the north and kind of putting the whole area under long term siege? Looks feasibly to me on paper.

[ArizonaTank]

I find the whole conscription thing weird.   Don't the Russians have several million in the reserves?

My guess is that they need those reserves doing other things right now (especially in agriculture and industry), whereas they think they just need bodies to hold ground and super young/old green troops would do well enough for that in their calculus. In any case, Putin is headbutting hard against Shaposhnikov's maxim: "Don't play games with mobilization."
....

Agree on "bodies to hold ground." Maybe the Russians are looking toward getting enough garrison troops for a long occupation. I could see that they would not waste well-trained reserves in such roles. Also, Putin probably wants to keep strong forces and reserves available to keep NATO in check elsewhere.

[W8taminute]

^I agree.  That makes sense.

[MengJiao]

Does no one else think he's going to cut Ukraine in half by troops joining from the south and the north and kind of putting the whole area under long term siege? Looks feasibly to me on paper.

  It's a plan of sorts at least anyway.  Meanwhile, what about Belarus?  Does Putin want another unstable area in the region?  He might have to send forces to occupy Belarus too, apparently:

Belarus could "soon" join war in Ukraine, US and NATO officials say
From CNN's Natasha Bertrand, Jennifer Hansler, Jim Sciutto and CNN staff in Kyiv

It is increasingly "likely" that Belarus will enter the conflict, a NATO military official said on Monday.

"Putin needs support. Anything would help," the official explained.

A Belarusian opposition source said that Belarusian combat units are ready to go into Ukraine as soon as the next few days, with thousands of forces prepared to deploy. In this source's view, this will have less of an impact militarily than it will geopolitically, given the implications of another country joining the war.

A senior NATO intelligence official said separately the alliance assesses that the Belarusian government "is preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine."

Belarusians voted last month to allow the country to host both Russian forces and nuclear weapons permanently, though US officials have emphasized to CNN that they have not yet seen any evidence of Russia moving nuclear weapons or preparing to. 

The sources emphasized that there have been no indications to date that Belarus is currently participating in the fighting in Ukraine, and a senior US defense official said the Pentagon had not seen "any indications that the Belarusians are preparing to move ... into Ukraine or that they have made any agreements to do that."

The NATO military official said that a final decision for Belarus' involvement in the war still has to be made in Moscow, and as of yet, there has been no indication that Belarusian forces are participating in the fighting in Ukraine.

"It is not about what [Alexander] Lukashenko wants," the official explained, referring to the Belarusian president. "The question is: Does Putin want another unstable country in the region?"

"Involvement would destabilize Belarus," the official said.
The official wouldn't elaborate on how Belarus could intervene in the war, but said it made sense for Russia to try and cut off NATO military aid coming into Ukraine from its Western border.

[ArizonaTank]

Does no one else think he's going to cut Ukraine in half by troops joining from the south and the north and kind of putting the whole area under long term siege? Looks feasibly to me on paper.

That has been an open question I've heard for a week or so...why aren't the Russians doing that? I guess the answer has to do with the Ukrainians who are probably fighting like he$$ to keep that from happening. Also, that would dramatically increase their frontage, and stretch supply lines; two things the Russians don't seem to be very good at. Anyway, those are my thoughts. 

[Sir Slash]

Putin's KGB right? Those State Security types don't make really great Generals. And with Vlad not trusting anyone but his cook/Wagner buddy, maybe he is calling all the balls and strikes himself. Which might explain the confused strategy and lack of focus on a single, decisive target.

[Tripoli]

Talking about Double U Double U Eye Eye from https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21

The Ukrainian General Staff stated for the first time on March 21 that Russia is deploying unspecified support units to "direct combat operations" and said that Russia continues to deploy reserves from the Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD).[5] The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) provided further details on conscription measures in the DNR and LNR on March 21. They reported that Russian authorities are increasing the conscription age from 55 to 65 and aggressively recruiting 18-year-old students.  The GUR reported conscripts in DNR/LNR forces are supplied with military equipment from the 1970s.[6] Local social media imagery depicted new conscripts equipped with the Mosin-Nagant bolt action rifle—which has not been produced since 1973 and was first produced in 1891

Maybe they're being given initial marksmanship training on the M-N rifle, maybe not, but it definitely indicates some kind of shortage.  The twitter pic is no longer available though. 

Just throw the damn thing away and surrender.
Edit: so stunned made a sp and grammatical error.

I find that this report stretches the bounds of credulity. Yes, it is clear that the Russian military is plagued with problems ranging from poor training and morale to poor maintenance of equipment, lack of proper planning, inadequate logistics, corruption, incompetent leadership, etc...but I still find it hard to believe that the Russian military lacks enough kalashnikov rifles to equip its army and needs to rely on M-Ns. Over 100 million kalashnikov family rifles have been manufactured and the Russian military has very large stockpiles of them. Hell, they've probably exported millions of them. I also find it hard to believe that after about a month of war they are already being forced to recruit AARP members. It just doesn't make sense. Sounds grossly exaggerated to me.

...

I agree it is unlikely the Russians lack AK-47s.  In fact, I would be willing to bet that they have more AK-47 or successor rifles on hand than they have Mosin's.  My guess is that they are using the Mosin as training aids for basic training.  When I went to AOCS we were issued M-1 Garands.  They were demilitarized by taking a cutting torch to the underside of the barrel.  But they still weighed 9.1 pounds, still rusted so they needed to be cleaned, and still could give you "M-1 thumb".  In short, they were ideal for training purposes.  Possibly the Mosin's are serving the same function in the Russian army.  Alternatively, they are being used for markmanship training.  But I seriously doubt they are being issued for any sort of actual field use.

[Jarhead0331]

Here's an interesting one...

[W8taminute]

Interesting.  That can't be footage of actual soldiers? 

I like what narrator quoted at the end, "i've seen paintball teams with better organization".