Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

Honestly I miss Pat Morita every day.

[bobarossa]

Honestly I miss Pat Morita every day.

I walk my dog twice a day.  As I'm getting ready I frequently say "boots on, boots off".
I am happy that the Russians are converting their butt-kicking into a reduction in activities to improve mutual trust.

[Tripoli]

Honestly I miss Pat Morita every day.

I walk my dog twice a day.  As I'm getting ready I frequently say "boots on, boots off".
I am happy that the Russians are converting their butt-kicking into a reduction in activities to improve mutual trust.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but an alternative view of Russian activities is that they need to reconstitute their forces, so they are pulling some back to the safe area of Belarus, and reconstituting them for another go, either on the Kiev front or elsewhere.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are will be forced to maintain most of their forces in the Kiev region regardless of the Russian "redeployment".    I'm not saying this is what is happening. I'm just offering it as an alternative to what the Russians are claiming they are doing.

[Gusington]

So...basically pooling the remaining Ukrainian forces around Kiev to make for a nice collection of targets for the Russians?

[Tripoli]

So...basically pooling the remaining Ukrainian forces around Kiev to make for a nice collection of targets for the Russians?

Not exactly.  Given the scope of their losses, I believe the Russians need to reconstitute.  They can pull these forces out of the line and send them to Belarus, which is a safe zone for the Russians.  After reconstituting, they can send the forces anywhere they want.  However, the Ukrainians will still be  required to maintain the majority of their current forces currently deployed in the Kiev region, as Russia could quickly resume the attack there.  Arguably, the Ukrainians could continue to try to take advantage of the Russian redeployments to roll back the Russians on the Kiev front.  But as the Russians are digging in, and the Ukrainians are lacking artillery and air superiority, such local counter-attacks are likely to become expensive.  My guess is that the Ukrainians will continue to make local counterattacks to seize key terrain and/or take locations for political purposes. But they will largely take the breather to also dig in and resupply, and then shift whatever minor forces they they can free up to the south.

[Gusington]

What ever happened to the 30,000 Belorussian troops that were going to invade Ukraine?

[MengJiao]

What ever happened to the 30,000 Belorussian troops that were going to invade Ukraine?

  Good question.  At one point some seem to have crossed into Ukraine...but maybe not.  Belarusian forces don't seem to have gone into Ukraine in big numbers.  Now, of course,
as usual the weirdness continues: lots of HE hurled into everything, some negotiating and some movement by the Russians maybe to go after things in the SE Ukraine (but who knows?)?

Oh and Putin has said he is as culturally canceled as JK Rowling and he is going to "thrash" Zelensky or something.  Oh and Putin's Chenchyeians want to go on fighting no matter what.  And
Wagner group has sent another 1000 (honestly that's the number, less than 4000 so maybe 3000 are dead or lost or in Syria etc. etc.) mercenaries to do something somewhere.

[Sir Slash]

The gravitational center of this war does seem to have shifted south to the, 'Land Corridor' from Crimea to the Donbass. That maybe where the war's decided...if the Russkies get stopped there, where else can they go to make any claim of success? Sending new forces there to reinforce their progress seems sensible to me. BTW, I know a friend who's son was a Medical Tech or some such in the Canadian Army. He's trying to work-out a way to get to the Ukraine to help-out. Very Good Sir!  :clap:

[JasonPratt]

It would be a little funny if Wagner's mercs got 75% merc'd while in-country, so he decided to merc on out of there elsewhere!

I don't see Russia's withdrawal announcement as being mutually exclusive to their previously announced plans to focus on securing control over the Donbas region. (And also that other breakaway city-state "republic" next door? -- don't know why it wasn't mentioned but maybe it was assumed.)  I'm a little fuzzy about why Belarus would be safer than Russia itself, but whatever they think works I guess.

Right now, the only feasible claim to success would be picking up the hinterlands (for want of a better word) west of those two city-states, pushing the Ukrainian border back proportionately. Bonus points if they can keep the Crimea (which at the moment seems like it's going to happen) and synch up the Donbas area with the Kuban better allowing a straighter transport corridor southward to the Black Sea from that area.

[JasonPratt]

Re the VDH video, in case I have to explain it: many people here are fans of him as a classicist and a military historian, even aside from his personal political views. (I'm only a minor fan; I doubt I even have any of his books, I just listen to some of his lectures occasionally.)

The military discussion was about 53 minutes (for part 1, part 2 still to come) behind the paywall (with a free 2-week trial, or I wouldn't have bothered mentioning it at all), for anyone interested in his assessments -- BUT since along the way I also found about 45 seconds of general political griping about the US administration, I thought I'd better mention that as a caution and not even provide a link to it just to be safe. Fans of VDH can search around and find it if they want, now that they know it exists.

I pretty much always appreciate your maps and graphics, Star, and even the humorous memes you've posted along the way. I know you're concerned about the thread being locked down or even deleted, and are just trying to protect it, and I appreciate that, too.

Gus and Jarhead are very capable of sending me warnings if (and sometimes when) they think I'm going too far somewhere, and/or even editing out my comments as they see fit (including this one!) and I don't think I've ever complained about that: I fully accept their right and responsibility to do so. Certainly it's better for me to be sacrificed than the thread, and if they want to put me in time out for however long for any reason, I'll accept that.

[Gusington]

You're an odd duck, Pratt...but you're our odd duck.

[W8taminute]

Well stated Jason. 

[MengJiao]

It would be a little funny if Wagner's mercs got 75% merc'd while in-country, so he decided to merc on out of there elsewhere!

   Where do the Wagner's Mercenary Numbers (WMN) get cooked up?  Does Wagner do it himself as in "round it up to the next tens spot and then multiply by 100" so 31 becomes 40 and then 4000?
Or does he just decide 1000 is plausible now since he said 4000 assassins would get Zelensky and "23 other" (23? where do they get these numbers?  ).  23 sounds odd but Two survivors become 10 and then 1000 and so on.  Then they go to Syria and find some dissguntled ex-Chendchenyian so that's 3 and then they say "We 4000 will fight to the end in the DNR!" and then they
stay in Syria so as to be able to say "More Syrians are coming now!" and "We are as culturally canceled as JK Rowling!" and "We will thrash Zelensky!".
Oh and the missile defense site says 113 hypersonic missiles have been launched at Ukraine but on a bad day only 40% of those "functioned" (left the launch tube?  Flew in the right general direction?  Hit something?  Hit something in Ukraine?) on good days 80% worked but on an average day maybe 50%.  So split up 113 and say only 60 "functioned"...Is "the  notorious Wagner Group" making this stuff up too?  I guess 113  with 60 "functioning" is still better than 4000 tried to kill any one of 23 but missed. them. all.

[solops]

If I was ready to nuke an area, I'd pull my guys back. And I'd make sure they were NBC ready while I re-grouped them.

[SirAndrewD]

If I was ready to nuke an area, I'd pull my guys back. And I'd make sure they were NBC ready while I re-grouped them.

I believe Russian cold war era doctrine was just to shove through B level units into the fallout to exploit the openings then send the better troops with minimal NBC gear in after. 

That was the Soviets though and I'm a bit rusty on 60's planning.  That was when their goal was to hit the Rhine in just a few days to knock out NATO in a blow.  Not sure they'd even consider such a plan after the losses they've already sustained.