Russia's War Against Ukraine

[MengJiao]

I've kept hearing occasionally this week that Putin has now moved his family and key ministers to his nuclear war bunker, but as far as I know that comes from one MSNBC source some days ago...  ??? Don't know what to believe about that.

  There seem to be all kinds of stories along those lines -- beginning on March 1.  The  "bunker" is usually described as a "luxury bunker" and in "Siberia"...but who is there sees to shift around.
Sometimes its his "family" or his "new wife" (but his "mistress" is in Switzerland according to some sources).  Recent stories put him in some other bunker closer to Moscow and even provide him with
"ministers" so he might be somewhere where nobody can get to him and tell him things are going wrong or maybe he has just found out his plans have not worked out and he is coming up with
some new plans like just take the Donbas and then negotiate from strength.  at least that would be an actual plan and just the sort of thing to make your bunker stay enjoyable.

[steve58]

Ill just leave the tagline.

7 busses with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome have arrived to a hospital in Belarus from the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine.

They allegedly dug trenches in the highly radioactive Red Forest

Guess that was enough for the Russians to give Chornobyl back to the Ukrainians...at least "in writing"  ::)

Russian forces, which had held the nuclear facility since Feb. 24, returned control of the Chornobyl plant "in writing" to Ukrainian personnel.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

[Gusington]

More horrifying info here:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/31/europe/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-withdrawal-intl/index.html

[JasonPratt]

Hm! -- the idea that he can use bunkering for a whole month as an excuse to change plans (presumably to something more workable), is certainly interesting. Then he could also start a purge, bully (most of) his military even harder, etc.

Whether it's realistic or makes any sense as an excuse is beside the point: he controls so much of what his people see and hear, it probably won't make any difference, and for most people outside Russia at worst it's a question mark (if they care at all) about whether he's telling the truth.

Of course most governments wouldn't believe him, at least privately, but this would give them a chance to back him up again publicly.

[GroggyGrognard]

The story about the seven buses with Russian soldiers suffering from ARS could be exaggerated bullshit. This definitely needs some critical analysis. Based on the numbers ARS isn't believable. It requires a very high dose over a short amount of time. The first thread has some good qualitative and quantitative points:

https://twitter.com/CherylRofer/status/1509328182331248649?s=20&t=huNLng6Fdz837I-IjV1Izg

https://twitter.com/jrmygrdn/status/1509379039898841095?s=20&t=huNLng6Fdz837I-IjV1Izg

"Pure speculation on my part, with no information to support - but one possible reason to be taken to a radiation medical centre would be to be checked for any internal or external contamination, without having any immediate health issues."
https://twitter.com/DrJonathanCobb/status/1509473065725566977?s=20&t=huNLng6Fdz837I-IjV1Izg


Thank you all for reading my post.

Groggy

[GDS_Starfury]

with all of the other ineptness that the russian military has displayed is it that far fetched?
its all very soviet.

[MengJiao]

Hm! -- the idea that he can use bunkering for a whole month as an excuse to change plans (presumably to something more workable), is certainly interesting. Then he could also start a purge, bully (most of) his military even harder, etc.

  Hmmm...well the bunkering stories seem to be mostly for human interest coloring rather than assessing Putin's Planning problems, but, I'm sure getting into a bunker with his ministers could not
damage his planning all that much.  Going to the front and taking a look might help him more than anything....let him get more realistic with his "negotiating"

  Speaking of which, the Russians say blowing up their stuff is hurting "negotiations".  This seems puzzling.  After all if say 91% of their gear got blown up, it seems like negotiations would
move right along.  Apparently as far as the Russians are concerned, it's good for "negotiations" if Ukrainian stuff gets blown up and bad if Russian stuff get's blown up.  The Ukrainians might
suggest it is the other way around.  Hmmm...maybe that's why negotiating for real is not easy?



A purported Ukrainian strike on fuel depot could have negative impact on negotiations, says Kremlin
From Uliana Pavlova

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Friday that a purported strike by Ukrainian helicopters on a fuel depot in the southern Russian city of Belgorod could have a potential negative impact on negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.

A fire broke out at a fuel depot in Belgorod, a Russian city near the Ukrainian border, the regional governor said on his Telegram channel Friday morning.

Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of Belgorod region, accused Ukraine of being behind the blaze without providing further evidence. CNN has not been able to verify this claim.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense told CNN it had no information about the incident.

Belgorod is close to the northeastern Ukraine-Russia border, beyond which lies the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. The Belgorod area was used as a staging ground for Russian before the invasion.

Asked if the incident was regarded by the Kremlin as an escalation of the conflict, Dmitry Peskov added: "Of course, this is not something that can be perceived as creating comfortable conditions for continuing negotiations."

[Pete Dero]

^ These are the same people who said that all Ukraine had to do to end the conflict was surrender.


Last week they said the 'operation' could go to the next phase because they eliminated the Ukrainian air forces.
Today that non existing air force hit a fuel depot.

It's not easy to lie consistently.

[Gusington]

It seems pretty easy for the Russians to continue spewing BS in all directions, even if the BS is of varying quality.

I can easily see Russian officers and governors blaming everything on Ukraine now and for the next 50 years.

[MengJiao]

^ These are the same people who said that all Ukraine had to do to end the conflict was surrender.


Last week they said the 'operation' could go to the next phase because they eliminated the Ukrainian air forces.
Today that non existing air force hit a fuel depot.

It's not easy to lie consistently.

  I just find this whole war very puzzling.  What's basically continually making me wonder about the whole thing is what the Russians think they are doing
and why they think that.  Okay, so apparently the Russians are still trying to pretend they are just
trying to do something minor and comprehensible.  What that little comprehensible thing might be or ever have been
is truly impossible to discover.  Apparently, even if we could read Putin's mind minute-by-minute we still would not know because apparently:
a) he never knew what was going on to start with
b) but he made up a lot of stuff
c) and he still really can't believe things are occurring in a way different from what he pictured
d) so he's in a bunker maybe, possibly trying to adjust his mental world

Meanwhile everyone else in the world, including his negotiating team, his army and his press people, have to pretend there's some oh-so-simple thing that
everyone should understand, but that luckily they don't have to explain because (well let's face it), no one can, not even Putin.

So does blowing up Russian stuff "escalate" the war?  Hmmm...

As so often in the press coverage, you get the feeling that terms and questions are tossed out there with some kind of more pure hope than sensible expectation.
The press likes to say "tactically" or "tactical" or "tactics" as much as possible because they have heard that wars have that sort of thing and even "escalation"....
Now that really is a hopeful question.  Maybe it is a tactical escalation if the Ukrainians shoot back...hmmm or maybe its a normal response to a war that in many ways
has nothing particularly comprehensible about it.  Gosh...why not shoot back?  And of course if the Ukrainians blow up enough Russian stuff maybe that will force Putin
to think about what he's doing -- but probably not.   

[Gusington]

Putin feels encroached upon by NATO and 'the West' led by the US. I know you know that already. Buried beneath the war crimes, the whole metaphysical oddity and all the bloodshed, Putin has made it clear that he thinks he has been wronged and betrayed by the West since the end of the Cold War. There are similarities to Russia now and Germany post WWI...even if genuine issues are being trumped up and threats exaggerrated ridiculously.

[Con]

As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con

[MengJiao]

Putin feels encroached upon by NATO and 'the West' led by the US. I know you know that already. Buried beneath the war crimes, the whole metaphysical oddity and all the bloodshed, Putin has made it clear that he thinks he has been wronged and betrayed by the West since the end of the Cold War. There are similarities to Russia now and Germany post WWI...even if genuine issues are being trumped up and threats exaggerrated ridiculously.

  Right.  I see the context.  What I don't get is how whatever the Russians are doing in Ukraine is supposed to help Russia with whatever its actual problems are.  I mean I guess I get that the Russians
feel bad about things, but I don't see how blowing up Ukraine makes them feel any better.  Or to put it another way, if the Russian problem is that they feel "wronged" -- I'm still not sure how blowing up
Ukraine makes them feel less "wronged."  Or to put it another way: did Russia have any real actual problem that blowing up the Ukraine might solve?  The question here revolves around "real problem"
and a "realistic" solution.  If there was no real problem (and I think that is the case -- there was no real problem) then there is no real solution.  I think the actual Russian problem is not one that
blowing up Ukraine can solve: their problem is that their social world has seriously departed from any significant connection with reality.  I think much
of what we see as their BS is not BS in the usual sense because that really is what their version of reality is.  Sure, it happens to coinside with BS and that's the Russian problem in a nutshell
and blowing up Ukraine does not save them from their own BS.

[MengJiao]

  OOOps editing disaster... and blowing up Ukraine does not save them from their own BS, at least not directly.  In the end they may figure it all out -- partly thanks to the mess in Ukraine.  But
who knows?

Germany is sending some tanks (says CNN -- actually they are BMP-1a1),  Pbv 501 Levi-Strauss rivetted extra thick.  One article says 56 another 58 -- maybe two command BMP-1 were included but not counted with the basic BMP-1a1s

Wikipedia says:
Pbv 501 (Pbv stands for pansarbandvagn) – Swedish designation for 350 BMP-1A1s bought from Germany.
Pbv 501A – Between 1999 and 2001, VOP 026 from the Czech Republic modified 350 Pbv 501s for the Swedish army. The Pbv 501A has a slightly modified engine and transmission as well as an asbestos protection system. The vehicle was fitted with new weapon racks, driving lights and side skirts, while the 9K11 or 9K111 ATGM system was removed. Safety standards were also improved.[56]


   Germany approves delivery of combat tanks to Ukraine, defense ministry says
From CNN's Inke Kappeler in Berlin

Germany has approved the delivery of 56 combat tanks to Ukraine, a German defense ministry spokesperson told CNN Friday.

The tanks, which are type Pbv 501, stem from the Cold War-era East German army and had been sold to Sweden, then resold to the Czech Republic, who will deliver them to Ukraine, according to the ministry.

According to the German War Weapons Control Act, the Federal Security Council must approve of the export of weapons that originated from Germany at any time.

[MengJiao]

As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con

  I don't know.  Gaming-wise, the mess in the Ukraine pretty much invalidates all the Cold War games about the war that never happened.  The mess in the Ukraine suggests all games
about the Soviets and Russians and post 1980 stuff in general need some pretty serious revision at all levels.  I'm looking into how Harpoon V simulates missiles and finding it pretty enlightening.
Gotta start over at the tech level to get games working plausibly with crap like the mess in the Ukraine.